Path seems to be uncertain, but the surf is sure up on Florida's Atlantic coast tonight! All Floridians need to be alert.
819 WTNT73 KNHC 062325 SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 730 PM EDT TUE AUG 06 2002 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 730 PM EDT...2330Z...THE CENTER OF THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT FRI AUG 9 2002 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.0N 73.0W 34 5 X X 39 YARMOUTH NS X X X 7 7 33.0N 69.0W X 24 7 X 31 HALIFAX NS X X X 11 11 38.5N 63.0W X X 15 6 21 SABLE ISLAND NS X X 1 16 17 BERMUDA X 1 4 X 5 SYDNEY NS X X X 13 13 NANTUCKET MA X X X 2 2 EDDY POINT NS X X X 13 13 HYANNIS MA X X X 2 2 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X X 12 12 BAR HARBOR ME X X X 3 3 BURGEO NFLD X X X 13 13 EASTPORT ME X X X 4 4 ILE ST PIERRE X X X 14 14 ST JOHN NB X X X 5 5 CAPE RACE NFLD X X X 12 12 MONCTON NB X X X 6 6 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X X 5 5 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU C FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU D FROM 2PM THU TO 2PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT AND 999 MB PRESSURE BASED ON THE LAST RECON REPORT IS MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A 1002.2 MB PRESSURE FROM BUOY 41645 LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 180/03. CRISTOBAL HAS BEEN MEANDERING OR RE-DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER... SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY...THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ABOUT 100 NM...WHICH IS WELL SOUTH OF ANY OF THE GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS AT THAT TIME. THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT AMONG ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ON CRISTOBAL EVENTUALLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AFTER THAT AND BECOMING ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT AND MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HAVING SAID THAT...I AM STILL NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT THAT WILL OCCUR AS QUICKLY AS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING...OR EVEN AT ALL. CRISTOBAL REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A BASIC NORTHERLY CURRENT THAT IS WEAKENING AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE DIFLUENT. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE A COLD FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE BURST...AND EACH CONVECTIVE BURST HAS BEEN FARTHER SOUTH. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT CRISTOBAL WILL JUST SLOWLY FOLLOW THE CONVECTION SOUTHWARD AND POSSIBLY BECOME SEPARATED FROM THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH TIME. HOWEVER...WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT MODEL GUIDANCE OTHER THAN THE ETA AND EXPERIMENTAL UKMET MODELS SUGGESTING THIS POSSIBILITY... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK ONLY SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE 18Z AVN MODEL.
GIVEN THAT CRISTOBAL HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN DESPITE THE NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR...SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 54 KT AND 58 KT IN 24 AND 36 HOURS...RESPECTIVELY...AND THIS TREND WAS COLSELY FOLLOWED FOR THIS ADVISORY.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/0300Z 30.0N 76.2W 40 KTS
12HR VT 07/1200Z 29.6N 75.3W 45 KTS
24HR VT 08/0000Z 30.4N 72.7W 50 KTS
36HR VT 08/1200Z 33.7N 67.3W 55 KTS
48HR VT 09/0000Z 37.5N 61.7W 55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 10/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW