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BULLETIN: TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL PARALLELS FLORIDA EAST COAST
National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center ^
| August 6, 2002
| National Hurricane Center
Posted on 08/06/2002 4:41:55 PM PDT by varina davis
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 715 PM EDT TUE AUG 06 2002
AT APPROXIMATELY 650 PM EDT...2250Z...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE HAD STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL.
THIS IS JUSTIFIED BY FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS RANGING FROM 48 TO 52 KNOTS BETWEEN 5000 AND 10000 FT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND A MEASURED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 999 MB...OR 29.50 INCHES. A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL ISSUED BY 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC.
FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN
TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: cristobal; florida; storm; tropical
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Tropical Storm Cristobal is just off the east coast of Florida. Tornado warning and heavy rains are pelting the Miami area from its outer bands.
Path seems to be uncertain, but the surf is sure up on Florida's Atlantic coast tonight! All Floridians need to be alert.
To: varina davis
THE TRACK IS RELATIVELY CERTAIN!
go to this URL:
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNationalWideNew.asp?loc=usa&seg=StormCenter&prodgrp=TrackingCharts&product=HurTrack2&prodnav=none&pid=none
To: varina davis
Current radar image from WFOR/Miami:
3
posted on
08/06/2002 4:53:53 PM PDT
by
mhking
To: varina davis
Looks like its more of a threat to Canadians than Floridians
4
posted on
08/06/2002 4:54:19 PM PDT
by
elfman2
To: elfman2
5
posted on
08/06/2002 4:55:40 PM PDT
by
Don Munn
To: elfman2
Janet scares another one off.
6
posted on
08/06/2002 5:03:29 PM PDT
by
MonroeDNA
To: elfman2
Looks like its more of a threat to Canadians than FloridiansYou need to update your tracking map.
To: elfman2
the ONLY good thing about living in upstate NY is that we don't get many of these at all!!
p.s. do you think it will swing by maine, cuz that's where i'm headed on thursday?
To: varina davis
Uhh....is that map wrong? Not to doubt you, but it looks like Nova Scotia is in the target zone to me.
Floridian Freeper
9
posted on
08/06/2002 5:21:24 PM PDT
by
MonroeDNA
To: MonroeDNA
Try this link. Tropical Storm Cristobal is ust off Florida's east coast and NOT headed for Nova Scotia.
=
To: MonroeDNA
Geez, I'm glad you said that; I was reading the map BACKWARDS. I thought it came from Halifax!
11
posted on
08/06/2002 5:44:10 PM PDT
by
Howlin
To: varina davis
=
Here's another perspective, with Tropical Storm Cristobal on the Fla. east coast and TD Bertha emerging back into the gulf off Lousiana.
To: varina davis
Frog alert in So. Fla.!!! Ribbit!
13
posted on
08/06/2002 5:51:30 PM PDT
by
mc5cents
To: elfman2
Love your map! Can I get a link?
14
posted on
08/06/2002 5:54:36 PM PDT
by
JBCiejka
To: varina davis
Folks, this storm is essentially splitting......
The part near Florida won't be a big deal unless it can develop a new center.
To: elfman2
OK......the reason why there is a discrepency here is that part of the storm....the part they are using on the tracking map, is going to head off to the northeast. This is the part that actually has a good tropical center for the storm. However, teh part with the bundle of clouds is actually moving southwest toward Florida. It has a weaker center and unless it can form a new one, it won't be a big deal for Florida. If it can develop a new center that is fairly strong, it could strengthen into a decent tropical storm and perhaps minor hurricane, but that is questionable.
To: All
17
posted on
08/06/2002 6:19:13 PM PDT
by
Bob J
To: varina davis
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Forecast/Advisory Discussion Probabilities Graphics Update
819
WTNT73 KNHC 062325
SPFAT3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
730 PM EDT TUE AUG 06 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 730 PM EDT...2330Z...THE CENTER OF THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT FRI AUG 9 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
31.0N 73.0W 34 5 X X 39 YARMOUTH NS X X X 7 7
33.0N 69.0W X 24 7 X 31 HALIFAX NS X X X 11 11
38.5N 63.0W X X 15 6 21 SABLE ISLAND NS X X 1 16 17
BERMUDA X 1 4 X 5 SYDNEY NS X X X 13 13
NANTUCKET MA X X X 2 2 EDDY POINT NS X X X 13 13
HYANNIS MA X X X 2 2 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X X 12 12
BAR HARBOR ME X X X 3 3 BURGEO NFLD X X X 13 13
EASTPORT ME X X X 4 4 ILE ST PIERRE X X X 14 14
ST JOHN NB X X X 5 5 CAPE RACE NFLD X X X 12 12
MONCTON NB X X X 6 6 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X X 5 5
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU
C FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU
D FROM 2PM THU TO 2PM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN
18
posted on
08/06/2002 7:21:05 PM PDT
by
deport
To: varina davis
How about a 7 P.M. EST updated chart...... from the NWS
19
posted on
08/06/2002 7:25:46 PM PDT
by
deport
To: deport
How about a 7 P.M. EST updated chart...... from the NWSNope. The LLC is now south of 30 N and will escape the trof. It will continue to drift S or SW or SE. Nice try.
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