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Harkin Holds Narrowing Lead in [IA] Senate Race
Des Moines Register ^ | 7/1/02 | Jonathan Roos

Posted on 07/01/2002 1:13:33 PM PDT by Coop

Edited on 05/25/2004 2:46:37 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]

Democrat Tom Harkin holds a 9-percentage-point lead over Republican Greg Ganske in his quest to win a fourth U.S. Senate term, but the race is tightening, a new Iowa Poll shows.

Harkin is the choice of 50 percent of Iowans who say they definitely will vote in the Nov. 5 election. Ganske, a congressman from Des Moines, wins the backing of 41 percent of likely voters. The other 9 percent are unsure whom they'd support.


(Excerpt) Read more at dmregister.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa
KEYWORDS: 2002; ganske; harkin; iowa; senate
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Some better news from Iowa. This is the second recent poll I've seen (the other was 49-43% for Harkin) showing this race is tightening. The bad news is Harkin is doing well amongst independents. The good news is that Ganske isn't that well known and can still improve his position. Ganske's pulling four out of five Pubbies, so the primary didn't damage him too badly. And I imagine more Pubbies will take a breath and pull the lever for him if they think he can take out Harkin.
1 posted on 07/01/2002 1:13:33 PM PDT by Coop
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To: Coop
It would be so sweet to say good-bye to Senator "Dung Heap."
2 posted on 07/01/2002 1:16:15 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
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To: Coop
I don't think Ganske has a chance. Harkin is at 50%, and his favorable's are too high to be overcome. For whatever reason, those plain spoken Iowa folks have fallen in love with this clown. He's only leaving when he retires. If Ganske wins I'll be shocked.
3 posted on 07/01/2002 1:17:40 PM PDT by frmrda
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To: frmrda
Ganske is hardly a raw meat conservative. It would take someone like H. R. Gross to fire up a Republican turnout to beat Harkin.
4 posted on 07/01/2002 1:20:43 PM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks
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To: Eric in the Ozarks
Oh, I know Ganske is a RINO, but a "raw meat" conservative won't win in Iowa. They had their chance with Salier, and 59% of Republicans voted for the RINO. If Salier won the "indpendents" would go for Harkin 4-1.
5 posted on 07/01/2002 1:22:42 PM PDT by frmrda
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To: Coop
A nine point spread is a very substantial lead.
6 posted on 07/01/2002 1:23:01 PM PDT by curmudgeonII
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To: frmrda
You are probably right... The people of Iowa should be ashamed of themselves. Whatever happened to the self-reliant and down-to-earth American farmer and the other admirable Midwesterners that represented the backbone and breadbasket of this country? Tom Harkin! Are you Iowans nuts!?!
7 posted on 07/01/2002 1:23:13 PM PDT by ReleaseTheHounds
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To: frmrda
You talk about the 50% mark like it's a good thing. It's not. Why do you think the magic vulnerable number for incumbents is 55%?

I'm not saying Harkin will lose. I just kept waiting for some evidence that this race would be competitive like it was supposed to be, and now I have two different polls telling me it is. Ganske certainly could win this thing, but he needs to raise some serious money and win over some indies. He's still an underdog.

8 posted on 07/01/2002 1:24:22 PM PDT by Coop
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To: Coop
"Harkin has been in the Senate quite a long time, so I feel he could do more for Iowans," said Martin, 43, of Council Bluffs. She voted in the June 4 Republican primary but typically supports the Democratic ticket in general elections.

It is stupid, uninformed people like this that shouldn't bother voting- "he's been there longer, so therefore he's the better candidate". What a nitwit, and she voted in the Republican primary, which makes it even worse. Of course, Ganske is a RINO, anyway, so it would only be a very slight gain if he won

9 posted on 07/01/2002 1:27:31 PM PDT by Major Matt Mason
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To: curmudgeonII
A nine point spread is a very substantial lead.

I beg to disagree. 1) With a 4.3% margin of error it equates to (potentially) a 1/2 point Harkin lead. 2) We've still got four months to go. One poll means very little by itself. But compared to other polls it can be useful. Nine points is nothing, especially when looking at momentum. A few months ago Ganske couldn't get within 15 points of the incumbent. Now we've got two polls showing him at 6 and 9 points behind. The race has undoubtedly closed.

10 posted on 07/01/2002 1:27:33 PM PDT by Coop
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To: Coop
Time for PTUS to pay a visit and do some more fund-raising?
11 posted on 07/01/2002 1:31:09 PM PDT by hchutch
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To: hchutch
Seems to me that he did enough of that during the primary. The President (read Karl Rove) needs to stay away from here for a while, IMHO, and let some hard feelings die down.

I like President Bush, but I'm not a Rove fan. He needs to butt out of IA, CA, NC and all the other primaries going on. Geez, they look downright amateurish getting involved in primaries. < / soapbox >

12 posted on 07/01/2002 1:41:28 PM PDT by Coop
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To: Coop
Always appreciate your poll posts. And you're right. This one is winnable. Hopefully, some 1st Amendment loving outside interests will deign to run some bash Harkin ads as in SD with Dasshole. ;^)
13 posted on 07/01/2002 1:43:17 PM PDT by eureka!
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To: Major Matt Mason
Another reason that she's a nitwit is because a REPUBLICAN Senator can get more out of a REPUBLICAN President....ESPECIALLY if the Pubbie knocks out a Liberal entrenched Demoncrat.

Hey Lady....you're an IDIOT.

Senator Dung Heap Harkin is an Idiot too.

14 posted on 07/01/2002 1:54:02 PM PDT by Ann Archy
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To: Coop
I'm shocked it looks like I'll be the first Iowa guy to post here.

We had an extremely tough race in the primary with Salier and Ganske. Ganske only beat Salier 59-41%. That may look big to you, but you have to understand Ganske outspent Salier something like 16-1, and President Bush came here personally to campaign for him. Salier was great, and Ganske was voted "RINO of the Year" for the House (McCain won the Senate),

Before the election, a Ganske higher up was quoted as saying, "If Salier gets up to 40% of the vote, that would be very bad". The reason is, THE NATIONAL REPUBLICANS WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO SEND GANSKE MONEY, BECAUSE HE WOULD BE CONSIDERED HIGH RISK.

People like me hope Ganske looses, so Salier can come back in 6 years. I'll hold my nose and vote for Ganske, BUT (and this is important) the LAST thing the Republican Base here in Iowa is is MOTIVATED to vote for him. We were motivated to vote for Salier. He had nearly no money and got 41% of the vote. He did awsome.

ANd, another thing to remember, we are slightly pissed at Bush for comming here to Iowa to campaign for this drip. BUSH SHOULD HAVE STAYED OUT OF HERE AND LET US PICK OUT OWN GUY. People voted for Ganske PURELY because he was on stage with Bush, and no other reason, and I bet the number is very close to 10%.

So if you are considering spending your money to help out a Senate candidate in another state, send it somewhere else this year.

But send Salier some in 6 years.

15 posted on 07/01/2002 1:54:43 PM PDT by bigjoesaddle
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To: EternalVigilance
Flagging
16 posted on 07/01/2002 1:55:11 PM PDT by Registered
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To: bigjoesaddle
How about have SDalier make a run at Vilsack in 2006?
17 posted on 07/01/2002 1:57:35 PM PDT by hchutch
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To: bigjoesaddle
An excellent summary!

Regards,

TS

18 posted on 07/01/2002 1:59:21 PM PDT by The Shrew
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To: ReleaseTheHounds
The people of Iowa should be ashamed of themselves. Whatever happened to the self-reliant and down-to-earth American farmer and the other admirable Midwesterners that represented the backbone and breadbasket of this country?

The problem is that they are not so self reliant as they would like to think. They feed at the federal trough on farm and gasahol subsidies and anyone who says otherwise is spit on. They also still believe that its 1930's and Republicans were the guys in Top hats who came to foreclose on the family farm during the depression.

19 posted on 07/01/2002 2:02:59 PM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: bigjoesaddle
the LAST thing the Republican Base here in Iowa is is MOTIVATED to vote for him.

If that were so, Ganske would not be pulling 79% in this poll, nor competing as well against Harkin.

BUSH SHOULD HAVE STAYED OUT OF HERE AND LET US PICK OUT OWN GUY.

Completely agree, as I stated above in different words.

20 posted on 07/01/2002 2:02:59 PM PDT by Coop
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