Posted on 06/19/2002 8:58:01 PM PDT by Magnum Fan
The Senate's partisan strength is so delicately balanced right now, the outcome in November of a few close races will determine the ultimate fate of the president's agenda and nominees. In fact, the way things look right now, we could have at least six Senate races decided by single-digit margins, most likely by margins in the low single digits.
The states that should feature close contests include: Arkansas, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, New Hampshire and South Dakota. Horse races also might develop in Colorado, Georgia, Montana and perhaps even in Illinois and New Jersey.
In these competitions any number of factors will make or break candidates, but turnout is the biggest variable. The party fielding the most motivated voters will celebrate on election night, and will set the tone in Washington for at least the next two years. In my view, Republicans will have the advantage this fall. Here's why:
The national mood is tailor-made for the GOP. Forget the narrow focus of media polls, "showing" strong support for the Democrats' domestic agenda. The nation is enthusiastic in its support for the military and for law enforcement. There's a renewed respect for faith and for the worth of Western ideals. Above all, there's been a vibrant surge in patriotism since last September.
Democrats recognize this, and for once it is they who are playing the "me too" game. For Republicans, though, this isn't an affectation; it's a reflection of sincere beliefs, and most voters recognize this.
Republicans have the White House. This benefits the GOP for an obvious reason -- the president is a valuable campaigner -- and for a less-than-obvious one -- he reminds party loyalists what's at stake in November. The Democrats profited in '96, '98 and '00 by urging their base "not to let Republicans destroy everything Bill Clinton's done for us." Now it's Republicans' turn to rally 'round the White House.
The Democratic base isn't getting much red meat. Many urban Democrats still fume that Bush was "selected, not elected," yet the president's popularity prevents most Democrats from attacking him directly. Meanwhile, at the other end of the socio-economic spectrum, Volvo-drivers look at the nation's post 9-11 mood and see a "descent into fascism." To the dismay of the smart set, however, Democrats aren't resisting this "fascism," they're imitating it. In short, the Left is frustrated that Democrats have "gone soft." Because of this, some will stay home on election day, while others will cast wasteful third-party protest votes.
Finally, Jim Jeffords. Even if Jeffords had laid low after ditching the GOP, Republican loyalists still would be looking for payback this fall. As it is, though, Jeffords and his groupies keep pouring salt in the wound, absolutely ensuring that millions of Republicans will be highly motivated to return him and his fellow Democrats to the minority. He's made it that personal.
There you have it. Of course, Democrats will hold their "get out the vote" drives, which will push hundreds of thousands of uninformed, easily-controlled voters into the polls. Fortunately, these efforts aren't as extensive in non-presidential election years and, as I mentioned a couple paragraphs back, Bush's continued popularity has diminished the enthusiasm of the "selected, not elected" crowd. This makes it even harder for Democratic vote-herders to do their thing.
In my opinion, the enthusiasm factor hasn't favored the GOP so heavily since 1994. This could be enough to push one or two (or maybe even more) close Senate races in the Republicans' direction. That's in addition to what they already would've won in a "normal" year.
(By the way, you may've noticed that I didn't mention the House. While an enthusiastic voter turnout obviously will help Republicans in the lower chamber, a continued GOP majority isn't dependent upon it. Most analysts agree that the chances of a Democratic House takeover this November are fairly remote. Control isn't really up for grabs; the only thing turnout is likely to affect is the size of the GOP majority.)
In any event, thank you for your attention. I'm eager to hear what all of you have to say about this!
Well, of course you would think so.
Indeed you might notice that I didn't write Ganske's chances completely off...disgust, dare I say hatred, for Harkin runs deep in Iowa Republican's hearts.
But I guarantee that the RINO's victory over the conservatives in that primary is going to have ramifications for years to come. Elephants never forget.
I just looked at some polling information that indicated something like 75% of Republicans favor expanding the powers of agencies like the FBI and an increase in defense spending, even if it means sacrificing our privacy and increasing taxes. Closer to 64% of Democrats support the same issues---what was interesting was the discrepancy when it came to Congress. While Republicans in Congress overwhelmingly support the same issues, Democrats in Congress do not.
Your observations seem sound.
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