Posted on 06/02/2002 6:56:14 AM PDT by jern
GOP smells victory in 2002
By ROB CHRISTENSEN, Staff Writer
NEW BERN - The Guilford County Republican Party, anticipating a strong showing at the polls in November, already has reserved a room for an election-night victory celebration at the Koury Convention Center.
"I'm excited," said Marcus Kindley, a 47-year old stockbroker who is also the Guilford County GOP chairman. "I can't wait."
The 500 Republicans gathered here for their annual two-day convention were in a giddy mood Saturday, assured that the political stars are in alignment for a robust Republican year.
The latest omen was the decision by Superior Court Judge Knox V. Jenkins of Smithfield on Friday to draw legislative district lines more friendly to GOP candidates.
But the Republicans already believed that events were going their way. Senate candidate Elizabeth Dole, the former two-time Cabinet secretary and former American Red Cross president, has a commanding lead in the polls in the race to succeed Sen. Jesse Helms. President Bush, while not on the ballot, remains extremely popular in North Carolina.
And Republicans believe they have some powerful issues with which to bludgeon Democrats in the fall -- from tax hikes to the budget crisis.
"The low-hanging fruit is heavy on the limbs," said J. B. Coram, a 55-year-old cattle rancher from Scaly Mountain, suggesting that the Democrats were ripe for easy pickings.
In fact, the scenario in June is viewed so favorably by Republicans they are beginning to compare this year with the Republican landslide in 1994, when the Republicans captured the state House and nearly secured the state Senate, and also picked up several congressional seats.
"I look for it to be better than 1994," said state Rep. Frank Mitchell, a chicken farmer from Iredell County.
The political climate did not look nearly as rosy for Republicans last summer. The country was headed into a recession, and historically the party in the White House loses congressional seats in the mid-term elections. The impending retirement of Helms, the founder of the modern Republican Party in North Carolina, created an open seat and an opportunity for Democrats.
But the national political climate has changed because of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, and polling for Republican and Democratic candidates in general has tipped more favorably toward Republicans.
President Bush has already been in North Carolina three times this year, and Vice President Dick Cheney will be in Raleigh and Charlotte later this month.
Although Bush will not be on the ticket this fall, most Republican leaders expect that Elizabeth Dole will. She has such a commanding lead in the polls that some GOP strategists think she will not only have coattails for other GOP candidates, but that her candidacy will draw more voters than usual to the polls.
Dole's candidacy was bolstered further Saturday when her famous husband, former Sen. Bob Dole, spoke to the convention. Other candidates complained bitterly that the party was giving Mrs. Dole an unfair advantage, but their protests were hardly a speed bump for her campaign.
Republicans think they got another break when the May 7 primary was delayed by the court battle over redistricting. While Dole seems to be breezing toward a primary rout against six little-known Republican opponents, the Democrats are engaged in a competitive, scrappy primary. The shortened general election campaign will also provide the Democrats with less time to attack Dole.
"Why am I worried?" laughed Jack Oliver, the deputy chairman of the Republican National Committee, when asked about the delayed primary. "I've got Erskine Bowles, Dan Blue and Elaine Marshall telling everybody in North Carolina about the weaknesses of each other. Why do we need that to stop? Keep it going. Enjoy." He was referring to the three leading Democratic Senate candidates.
While the Helms seat has drawn most of the attention so far this year, the fight for control of the General Assembly is likely to move to center stage after the court ruling Friday.
The state House, where the Democrats hold a 62-58 majority, was already expected to be a battleground. Now, the new district maps -- assuming they are upheld on appeal -- are expected to put the Senate, where Democrats hold a 35-15 majority, in play.
"This will be a historic election for Republicans in the state of North Carolina," said Nelson Dollar, a GOP political consultant from Cary. "We will have an opportunity to take both houses of the General Assembly. Republicans are poised to take advantage of not only the new maps but also the issues, which are trending strongly toward the Republican Party."
The state budget crisis could also have a trickle-down effect politically, if Democratic county boards of commissioners are forced to raise taxes to make up for revenues withheld by the state.
But GOP leaders, while optimistic, also offer several cautionary notes. The economy remains a volatile X factor in the election. North Carolina, with its hard-hit manufacturing base, is likely to pull out of the recession slower than most of the rest of the country. No one knows who the voters might blame for the hard times.
The possibility of another terrorist attack might also introduce another powerful unknown into the election.
Despite more favorable districts, GOP strategists say privately that winning control of the General Assembly will not be easy. The Democrats have a stable of seasoned candidates and a much larger political war chest, and that will keep them competitive.
"All politics is local," said state GOP Chairman Bill Cobey of Durham County, quoting the old saw coined by former U.S. House Speaker Tip O'Neill. "You still have to have the right candidate at the right place at the right time at the local level."
Staff writer Rob Christensen can be reached at 829-4532 or robc@newsobserver.com.
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I cannot find the words to express the contempt I have for your statement.
Maybe he has the same mortgage company I do. Because my bank actually calls me for my payment before I'm late and after I have proof of delivery by mail.
That's not all we can do we can:
Hold our Nose and vote for the GOP's chosen candidate,then HURL.
Except for the part about Libby Dole being virtually unopposed, that is!
Politics is certainly at a low ebb in North Carolina!
Sounds like you have a personal issue in the workplace to me. Maybe you should quit your job.
There is no scripture in the Bible that says that women can't be bosses...
You do realize that the Supreme Court is the ultimate prize in November. The senate races are going to be tight, the the GOP loses North Carolina the Demonrats WILL Remain in charge in the senate, they will continue to block nominees, and Roe V Wade will be that much further from being overturned.
You want that??????
A RINO is better than a Demonrat every day of the week. Consider your vote for Dole a vote for The Republican Control of the Senate and a vote for Conservative Supreme Court Nominees, otherwise, it will be more years of Daschle.
In addition Bush's appeals court nominees have been outstanding, Pickering was a good example, however he was shot down by the demonrats who hold the senate thanks to liberaltarians who want abortion on demand like yourself.
Margaret Thatcher was one of the 2 great British Prime Ministers of the last 125 years. Golda Meir was no wimp. Grow up.
President Bush did not campaign as a hardline far-right conservative. From my viewpoint, he appears to be "handling" the domestic issues and removing any recourse the Dems could throw back at him, signing those bills that need to be passed when the best-hopeful compromise appears to have been reached or when the obvious unconstitutionality of CFR will be found as such by SCOTUS. If Bush hadn't signed CFR we all know that up to this day we'd still be hearing how Pres. Bush and the GOP are "the party of big money and his reluctance to sign the bill proves it and that they don't want any form of campaign finance regulation."
You seem to dislike the Patriot Act, and though I will admit there are parts I'm not real thrilled with myself, post-911 action needed to be taken and had our country waited too long to tighten things up we may have ben attacked again before such an act was passed. I don't believe that would've gone over well with the people if our elected officials were bickering and not accomplishing anything constructive while it happened. All of you folks who think a Democrat is better to vote for are forgetting that the Dems let the Patriot Act zoom right on through Congress because they couldn't quit drooling over the reality that they were getting to take so many of our rights away. Just think what the Patriot Act would look like with the Dems in complete charge of writing it. We'd be living in a more-Orwellian world than our worse nightmares.
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