Posted on 04/08/2002 8:08:40 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
Plus, Reno will send some people to the polls simply to vote against her, particularly gun owners, Cuban Americans and haters of President Bill Clinton.
The smart money in some circles says Janet Reno is too liberal and too controversial to be elected governor this year.
She carries too much political baggage, union leaders said when they recently endorsed Bill McBride, her main Democratic rival for governor.
But a look at recent election returns in Florida and the excitement Reno's campaign is generating among the core constituencies of the Democratic party produce a scenario in which she could defeat Gov. Jeb Bush this fall: if she can get a huge Democratic turnout at the polls in November.
''We've always believed this will be about turnout,'' said Mo Elleithee, Reno's campaign manager. ``Our challenge is to make sure that Democrats get out to the polls, are energized and have reason not to stay home on Election Day.''
The results of the 1994 and 1998 gubernatorial races are key to Reno's strategy.
In 1994, Bush challenged Gov. Lawton Chiles and barely lost, receiving 2,071,068 votes to Chiles' 2,135,008.
In 1998, Bush soundly defeated Lt. Gov. Buddy MacKay, winning 2,191,105 votes to MacKay's 1,773,054.
The math shows that in 1998 compared to 1994, Bush gained only 120,000 more votes -- while MacKay got 361,000 fewer votes than Chiles did four years earlier.
'Jeb Bush's victory in 1998 was less a surge based on his popularity than on the Democrats' failure,'' said Jim Kane, who runs the Florida Voter, an independent polling company based in Fort Lauderdale.
''The numbers tell me that if you get out the Democratic vote and you reach out to all voters -- Republicans included -- I can win this election,'' Reno said.
If Reno wins the primary and faces off against Bush in November, Kane is predicting a 60 percent voter turnout, which would be 10.5 points higher than the 49.5 percent figure from 1998.
The 2000 presidential election showed how a strong overall turnout can benefit the Democratic candidate. With a 70.1 percent turnout in Florida, George W. Bush officially led Al Gore by only 537 votes, but many observers believe that Gore won by 30,000 votes if nullified ballots had been properly counted.
To be sure, most political analysts say Reno faces tall odds in beating Bush.
In a poll last week by The Herald and the St. Petersburg Times, Reno trailed Bush by 17 points, and only 1 percent more voters approved of her job as U.S. attorney general than disapproved. Bush enjoyed a 21 percent gap between his approval and disapproval ratings.
MORE MONEY
Bush will also have millions of dollars more to sell his message to voters, thanks in part to his brother's fund-raising prowess and because Republican incumbents usually raise more than Democratic challengers.
Plus, Reno will send some people to the polls simply to vote against her, particularly gun owners, Cuban Americans and haters of President Bill Clinton.
Nearly five months before the Sept. 10 Democratic primary, the recent poll showed, Reno had a 30-point lead over McBride and an even larger advantage over the other two major candidates, state Rep. Lois Frankel and state Sen. Daryl Jones. If she wins the primary and faces Bush in the Nov. 5 general election, some Democratic analysts say, a big turnout could put her in the governor's mansion.
''That is certainly the scenario that Janet is pinning her campaign on,'' said U.S. Sen. Bob Graham, a Democrat, who has not taken sides. ``She will be able to excite traditional Democrats and what I would call less politically interested Democrats who have voted by staying home, and independents who have become a fairly important part of the Florida electorate. If she can generate excitement that will get those three groups in her camp and to the polls, that is the key to victory.''
Reno has been targeting key Democratic constituencies. She has spoken at 19 local Democratic Party events across the state, 18 women's groups, 19 African-American churches or groups and three gay and lesbian groups. She has made 46 appearances in the three Democratic stronghold counties of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties.
SOME ADVANTAGES
Reno -- or whoever wins the Democratic nomination -- will have several factors in their favor this year compared to MacKay four years ago.
There could be as many as four proposed amendments to the Florida Constitution on the November ballot that are more likely to draw Democrats than Republicans to the polls.
One would limit classroom sizes, and is led by state Sen. Kendrick Meek, a Miami Democrat. A second would make prekindergarten available to all 4-year-olds, and is led by Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas, a Democrat.
ANTI-SMOKING BLOC
A third would ban smoking in indoor work areas and restaurants, and is led by anti-smoking groups that are traditionally allied with Democrats.
A fourth would reinstate the Board of Regents in place of the decentralized plan governing universities that Gov. Bush and the Republican Legislature established. Graham, a Democrat and the state's most popular politician, is leading this effort.
In The Herald/St. Petersburg Times poll, more Democrats than Republicans favored each proposed amendment.
None of the four has yet won a place on the November ballot.
Another pro-Democratic factor: Bush benefited in 1998 from the defection of key black Democratic lawmakers, most notably then-state Rep. Willie Logan, D-Opa-locka.
OF LITTLE HELP
Kane said exit polls show that the endorsements from Logan and the others ended up putting few extra blacks in Bush's column. The biggest benefit, he said, was that it kept some black voters and moderate Democrats at home, because Bush didn't seem threatening.
Black residents are strongly supporting Reno over Bush this year, the recent poll showed.
Preston Marshall saw this firsthand during the Jan. 21 Martin Luther King Jr. parade in Miami-Dade, when Reno walked behind his car.
''People came out into the street to hug her and to talk to her,'' Marshall said. ``They were really excited over her.''
A BIG DRAW
Marshall said he has never seen a politician draw such a favorable response during his 24-year involvement with the parade.
One of the reasons Gore did so well in 2000 in Florida was the huge African-American turnout, with many of them angered by Gov. Bush's success in abolishing affirmative action and a targeted Democratic effort to get them to the polls.
In 2000, compared to the 1996 presidential election, the black turnout rose by 50 percent, or 375,000 voters, according to exit polls.
Reno herself is the attraction this year.
When she spoke at the annual Lee County Democratic Party dinner in Fort Myers last month, Reno drew 250 people, or nearly three times the normal turnout, said Erini Borou Price, who sold tickets to the event. ''People wanted to touch her and to have their picture taken with her,'' Borou Price said.
``Normally, nearly everyone leaves before I give my closing remarks. This time we had to tell them to go home.''
Miami attorney Alan Fein was surprised at the reaction when Reno spoke for 15 minutes to about 50 people at his Key Biscayne home recently.
`REAL STAR POWER'
''They were totally energized and motivated to get out there and do something,'' Fein said. ``I was taken aback by it. She has real star power.''
All principled people.
"They were totally energized and motivated to get out there and do something," Fein said. "I was taken aback by it. She has real star power."
This alone requires a "Wishful thinking Barf Alert".
And people like to have their picture taken with circus freaks too: "Get a little bit closer to the Amazonian, mentally disturbed half-man, half-woman, half-beast former inept attorney general and candidate for Governor.")
So that's where Mo is these days. Virginians remember Mo as the spokesperson for Mark Warner's gubernatorial campaign.
Dan
How do these places keep their tax-exempt status?
I am proud to be one of the 47% in Miami-Dade who voted FOR Bush. Heck, my precinct went 74% for Bush!
'Jeb Bush's victory in 1998 was less a surge based on his popularity than on the Democrats' failure,'' said Jim Kane
They say this about every Republican elected ever. People would never vote for any Republican if they only knew how wonderful the Democrat was.
Republican incumbents usually raise more than Democratic challengers.
Check out that silliness! Only “Republican incumbants” raise more than their challenger?!! Biased pinhead reporter.
One of the reasons Gore did so well in 2000 in Florida was the huge African-American turnout
If second place is considered “doing so well”, then Reno should be fine.
I wonder if Reno paid this cheerleader, or does Tyler just write biased, shoolgirlish articles for the Dems for free.
I know you love Shakin' Janet, Ty-Ty.... but you just have the wrong plumbing for her to love you back.
If Thomas Jefferson stepped down from Mt. Rushmore to campaign for her (and sided with the Democrats rather than the Republicans who are closer to his beliefs), it would not save her. Only if God Almighty declared himself to be a Democrat and campaigned for her, would she have a chance, and then only a slim one.
Years ago, I wrote a column entitled, "I See Dead Campaigns." At the time I was writing about the Gore Campaign, which showed signs of Frankensteinian life. The Reno Campaign has no such redeeming virtue.
The Miami Herald has issued the call for all the Clinton pod people to assemble and support Reno. So be it. The living humans are definitely going to prevail in this campaign. The fortunate thing is the pod people will be defeated. The unfortunate thing is that they cannot be killed.
Congressman Billybob
I never heard this statistic before and quite frankly, it is astoundingly high. It screams FRAUD to me and probably democratic fraud at that.
Wait -- please don't tell me she actually has a chance!
Well, according to this unabashedly-biased (“Gore won Florida by 30,000 votes”) reporter, Janet should win if, and only if:
In other words, Jeb Bush needn’t start house-hunting.
I wonder how those democratic counties will be able to cheat with the
touch screen machines?
Is there going to be a printout? is it all digital? Paperless?
Then it is easy to scam the programing....
Elian: Hello, America. Thanks again for sending back to this totalitarian hell. Judging from my brief time spent in America I can tell you obviously have forsaken your forefathers beliefs in freedom, truth and justice.
Elian:(cont.) So this November please consider a candidate in line with your lack of values and your killer instincts. Janet Reno. I'm sure if the kids at Waco were still alive they would support her too.
Dan
Ghosts of Waco haunt the ruins
THESE CHILDREN CAN NEVER VOTE AGAINST JANET RENO
-David T. Hardy: An Interview With American Gun Owners' Best Friend ( & Waco )--
FBI, Delta Force, ATF, All fire Shots into Mt. Carmal killing children
GOVERNMENT TERRORISM - From Ruby Ridge To Waco And Beyond
Waco: A New Revelation, Reviewed by Gavin Phillips [Free ...
... Waco: A New Revelation, Reviewed by Gavin Phillips News/Current Events Opinion
Keywords: WACO,MCNULTY, DOCUMENTARY Source: Waco: A New Revelation Published ...
Description: Raises questions about a documentary film and suggests violation of human rights in the Waco incident.
Category: Regional > North America > ... > Politics > Issues > Human Rights and Liberties
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... Downside Legacy Research: WACO - Carlos Ghigliotti Death (Thread 2) Crime/Corruption
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... from TPDL 2000-May-1, from the Washington Post 2000-Apr-29 p.B3,
by Cindy Loose: Waco Siege Investigator Found Dead In His Home. ...
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... I have long believed that the truth will establish a link bewteen Foster's murder
and either the murdres at Waco or the secret trips to Switzerland, or both. ...
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A link to a whole lot of Elian! Links:
Elian! Elian! Elian! Elian! Elian! Elian! Elian! and yes, even more, Elian!
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