Click the pic for Ohio radar.
Thanks.
My puppy, Spike, is clearly frightened.
I'm not. It's just weather.
However, once again a thread on FR has given me a heads-up that I wouldn't have known about.
I love this place.
The fireplace will be cranking this weekend.
TORNADO OUTBREAK POSSIBLE TODAY FROM LOWER LAKES TO TENNESSEE VALLEY. FRESHWATER FURY TO SWEEP LAKES TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY, LEADING ARCTIC OUTBREAK FROM NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. SHORT SHOT IN PLAINS BUT MUCH LONGER DURATION BELOW NORMAL IN SOUTHEAST AS BIG HIGH TAKES UP RESIDENCE IN MID-ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK UNDER STRONG THOUGH TRANSIENT RIDGE. NEXT MAJOR AMPLIFICATION NOT UNTIL AFTER NOVEMBER 3.A historic 24- to 36-hour period may be staring us right in the face. Think about what is coming together here. Record warmth is likely in large area today from New York state to the heart of Dixie. Meanwhile, a strong mid- and upper-level jet is punching east-southeast toward the area where the highest dew points and warmest air are aimed in the low levels. While all this is going on, arctic air is starting to push southeastward. The initial history will be made today in the form of the record highs. The second piece of history may be made this afternoon into tonight with a major late-season outbreak of severe weather. This threat is one that encompasses not only tornadoes, but straight-line winds. It doesn't matter which blows a roof off a house. In any case, the severe storm center has a high risk areas roughly 100 miles either side of the line from Jonesboro, Ark., to Detroit, Mich. I do not recall ever seeing that so late in the season. We have been nervous about this since Monday and I am hoping that our worst fears don't come true. The worst fear: 1 to 2 dozen tornadoes, some of them to F4 and numerous reports of straight- line winds over hurricane force along with hail. This is not a common occurrence in late October and is basically because we are focusing a clash between an end-of-summer air mass and a start-of-winter air mass.
The energy from this system will lift northeast, while thunderstorms could maintain severe levels all the way to the Appalachians tonight the jet lifting north and bundling its energy up means two things: One a rapid falling apart of thunderstorms to virtually no threat east of the Appalachians Thursday and the influx of energy into the developing storm that is moving across the Lakes. This should become the Great Lakes equivalent of a hurricane, or "freshwater fury" late tonight and Thursday with hurricane-force winds possible on Lake Superior, northern Lake Michigan and northern Huron Thursday and storm force winds all the way to Lake Erie. Arctic air of course will sweep southeast and snow flurries will accompany the strong winds and turn to much colder into the Upper Midwest Thursday, the Lakes and Ohio Valley to the Allegheny front Friday, and southward all the way into the Smokies and the mountains of northern Georgia and Alabama Friday night and Saturday. I have no change on the evolution of this cold shot, then it will warm up for the northern Plains, as it's a short intense shot that will be gone early next week. And I have no changes in the amount of cold into the Southeast and the heart of Dixie. What needs fixing is Texas where the front will not be as strong as I alluded to yesterday. The strong storm in the Lakes will leave and the high will follow it in quickly enough to prevent a long enough fetch of northeast winds to be as cold as I feared yesterday. Numbers in Texas are 5-8 degrees warmer that yesterday and basically its a cool shot but nothing out of the ordinary there, and in fact the weekend looks nice statewide.
But what's good for the goose still doesn't help the gander because there is no change in the idea that 1 or 2 nights of record cold are possible farther east as this high settles in. Computer numbers for instance at Hunstville, Ala., which I am using as a benchmark and an example are now down at 25 Saturday night. Greensboro, N.C., has a 26 forecast. These may be a couple too low, but even if they are it represents the OBJECTIVE guidance predicting record lows from a few days out when they are supposed to be biased toward climatology, so it is an impressive shot.
Equally impressive, the ridge that builds behind it for a few days. The strong trough will lift out and by next Tuesday and Wednesday and the ridge will be anchored from north of Puerto rico to the Ohio Valley. The air mass will moderate, but low sun angles and morning chill means it will take for Wednesday and Thursday for temperatures to return to the seasonal averages in the Southeast, while it warms much quicker over the top through the Lakes into southern Canada. New England gets close to normal Tuesday and above Wednesday, but 5 day totals from Saturday through Wednesday will still be in the much-below category. The 5-day totals in the Northeast will probably be in the much-above category starting Wednesday, which means yesterday's 6-10 is another baffler with its forecast for normal. I expect this high to anchor over the mid-Atlantic and stretch out east-west out into the Atlantic, allowing the usual suspects across the north to warm right back up, while it stays normal to below average in Dixie and the southeast until later next week.
And of course, it will be look out below from the western Caribbean as this is the kind of situation that many times begats late-season development. That process would start Monday, but would take a few days to complete. The trough that develops in the Gulf next week to the southwest of the ridging we talked about may eventually be the anchor for the next trough to dig into in 10-15 days. Before that happens though nothing but Pacific air will rule the country for a four- to seven-day period in the wake of the cold air.
We are watching to see what is to become of the upper disturbance now north of Hawaii and how much moisture from Narda can get entrained. We can say by by to the low-level center as it gets sheared, but a potentially very wet system could reach the Northwest states this weekend, then head east across the northern Plains next week. This would of course become drier on its way east, cut pressures across southern Canada, and allow the aforementioned warm-up to proceed nicely most of next week.
Looking farther west, we should be able to push the timer on the 6-10 day typhoon rule by Friday as the super typhoon out there starts to recurve. So its movement the past few days is a non signal or a signal for ridging in the 6- to 10-day period in the wake of this trough which came in nicely with the recurvature of a previous typhoon, but in its wake we have the ridging in eastern North America next week. We continue to see no evidence of a strong trough digging in the West, and this time there is really no trough at all, but instead a flat flow until the new trough re-amplifies late next week near 140 west. And for the third time this month the trough, when it came east, drew in much colder air than what it originated with so in stead of seeing cold air masses being modified on there way east, they grow stronger relative to averages.
Which brings us to the subject of our rant today. Suppose I made this statement: No one can hit Curt Schilling. Well, that means that no one can hit him, right? So, it means he should never be beat, and throw nothing but no-hitters. However, there are guys out there that have hit Schilling, and even some that have his number. Well, to the guys out there that say you can not reliably forecast the NAO sign for the winter, all I have to say is "speak for yourself." We stuck up 8 analogs to show everyone why we forecasted what we forecasted last winter for everyone to see and put out the forecast. It was on line for 6 months with all the hurricane seasons listed. It was all based on certain patterns in the Atlantic for the hurricane season, and then we saw the strong signal for cold in the south central part of the nation last year. Keep in mind that the negative NAO for the winter is not a cold signal in the Northeast, it's a normal signal temperature-wise ( where we had normal). That is a common misconception as part of the problem is sometimes one can get prolonged stretches where all the core of the cold air heads much further west. Remember you New Englanders, upstate New Yorkers and Canadians, it's normal to be cold there in the winter ( by that I mean most precip events are suppose to be snow since the averages are so low) So, in terms of deviations from averages, it's colder farther back from the Appalachians into the south central part of the nation. In any case, we have a specific method we look at to determine that. I got a kick out of a statement I saw about the 95-96 winter. Could anyone get any closer a hurricane season/winter to follow than the parallel to the 33 and 95 seasons. Look at the temperature distribution of the winter of 33/34 and 95/96 and then look at the hurricane seasons that PREceeded those winters. Of course at that time there was no internet posting and no way of knowing for 99% of you what the heck I was forecasting, but my radio clients and one of my buddies in the NWS know what we were looking at for that winter in the northeast and it wasn't warm. ( Hint, he has a telleconnection named after him)
As I have said though, the secret is when to use it. And the month of November will tell you if what you have come up with based on the hurricane season is going to work that year. But I do take exception to those that until now have not given this the slightest of thought, and have the attitude, "if I can't do it, no one can."
Our winter prelim deals with this. Our winter forecast last year dealt with this. Just cause I can't hit Curt Schilling, doesn't mean others who have the talent and work at it can't. I think this is the case with the NAO also. But like one must wait for the pitch to be where you want it, when using this method, one must know when its applicable, and there in lies the trick. I have found that my error, and this is a common thread through out my forecasting, is I will read to much into something because I look at so many things. I have a finite mind that is trying to process what is an infinite amount of information, but I believe unless one really looks at everything possible, one is not given the best effort. But most times I have busted, it may be because of overdoing something. I can live with that as one should not go back into the locker room after the game unless they have left everything they had out on the playing field.
As mentioned, snow in the upper reaches of the Great lakes, and lots of rain here.
Hang on, folks........this may get wild for the next 24 hours
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Warning: Site is very slow today. I copied three cells to create this map.
