Fox News Poll: Texas Senate race galloping toward a photo finish

Fox News ^ | 10/21/2026 | Victoria Balara

[Republican Wildcat]

Texas hasn’t gone blue in a statewide race in more than 30 years, but that streak could face a serious test this year. A new Fox News poll finds that while Texas likely voters favor Republicans retaining control of the U.S. Senate and give incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott an edge in his re-election bid, the Senate race remains deadlocked.

The survey, released Wednesday, finds Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton tied at 49% each among Texas likely voters in the race to replace Sen. John Cornyn, who lost the GOP primary to President Trump-backed Paxton.

Last month, Talarico was up by 2 points among likely voters (51%-49%). The shift to a tie reflects Paxton consolidating support among conservatives, rural voters, suburban women and voters who backed Cornyn in the primary.

Although Paxton is falling short of Trump’s 2024 margins, he has strengthened his support a tad among both men (+1) and women (+1) since September, while Talarico slightly lost support (-1 and -2, respectively).

Talarico leads by wide margins among Black voters (+65 points), urban voters (+29), those under age 30 (+28), and women with a college degree (+23). Paxton’s strongest groups include White evangelical Christians (+52), White men without a college degree (+32), rural voters (+21) and those age 65 and up (+18).

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TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: jamestalarico; kenpaxton; paxton; talarico; texas

[Republican Wildcat]

Another poll indicating at least some of the wavering Republicans are "coming home." The ad campaign - which should have started in the summer to define him rather than trying to "undefine" him after giving Talarico free reign to pain himself as normal and mainstream - may be having an effect. But someone with the below views should not even be at 30% in Texas - and probably would not be if the below were more widely known, and had been known from the beginning:

Talarico's Pastor: ‘People in This Church’ Wish Would-Be Trump Assassin ‘Had Been More Successful’

Talarico Said Capitalism Is an ‘Oppressive System’ That Must Be ‘Dismantled’

Talarico brings a touch of Trotsky to the Texas Senate race - Texas Democratic Senate nominee linked capitalism with White supremacy

James Talarico Event Host Joins Protest Coalition With Communist, Socialist Groups

James Talarico Calls the Idea That Christians Are America's Villains 'Spot On'

Talarico’s Gender Mutilation Record Comes Under Fire in Texas Senate Race

James Talarico Headlined Pride Event Alongside 11-Year-Old Child Drag Queen

The Talarico Campaign Finally Confirmed This Scandal After Months of Hiding

James Talarico May Have Violated the Very State Voting Laws He’s Accused His GOP Opponent of Breaking: Reports

James Talarico Says Bill Banning ‘Gender-Affirming Health Care to Trans Children’ Is ‘Christofascism’

The ‘TransQueer Latinx’ theologian who ‘continues to inspire’ James Talarico

Will James Talarico Drop His Pedophile-Protecting Political Ally?

James Talarico: "God is not a being."

Talarico Campaign Refuses to Deny He Had Inappropriate Relationships With Other Staffers

Texas Democrat Senate Hopeful James Talarico Refers to Women as ‘Neighbors with a Uterus’

James Talarico's church library features LGBTQ propaganda for children, including pornographic material

‘God Is Queer’: See The Sexually Explicit Books James Talarico’s Church Gives Kids

James Talarico sent a letter to President Biden urging him to lease FEDERAL land, offices, and employees for ABORTION CLINICS, and to ignore/ban state laws.

James Talarico said there are six sexes while opposing ban on men in women’s sports

James Talarico's church library features LGBTQ propaganda for children, including pornographic material

‘God Is Queer’: See The Sexually Explicit Books James Talarico’s Church Gives Kids

https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4381232/posts?page=14#14

To: kawhill

Why Banned Books at Church?

Our library at St. Andrew's is home to a number of banned books, from picture books to young adult novels. We are a safe haven for controversial narratives right in the heart of Texas, the state that takes the top prize in challenged books. Take a moment to browse our collection of banned books and see what you notice...common themes…particular experiences and identities being censored.

As a church, we feel it's important to make these books available to the community. One of our core values as a progressive Christian community is to, “strive for peace and justice among all people, knowing that behaving with compassion and selfless love towards one another is the fullest expression of what we believe.” Reading stories written by people with identities and life experiences different from our own helps us shift our perspective, develop empathy, and see more clearly the call to justice among all people. We can also find parts of ourselves in these stories, which helps us grow into the fullness of our being. Children, teens, young adults, and older adults can find affirmation in the books they read. Sometimes, stories even shine light on hidden and painful experiences letting readers know they are not alone.

As progressive Christians, we are committed to a path of life-long learning. We can't keep growing if we close our minds and shut out different ways of being in, experiencing, and understanding the world. Caring for the stories in banned books is one small, but important way of proclaiming our love for everyone, everywhere, all the time. Let's read and celebrate banned books together!

Source: St Andrew's Presbyterian Church, Austin, TX

14 posted on 5/27/2026, 9:34:35 PM by Worldtraveler once upon a time (Degrow government) [ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies | Report Abuse]

[odawg]

Fox poll, has it even, means Paxton will win by at least eight points.

[Steely Tom]

Happens every election. The Democrat is kicking ass, right up until the week before the election. Then, strangely, it becomes “too close to call.”

[FlipWilson]

Who knows. But I hate FoxNews polls. I largely suspect that Fox polling serves only to generate headlines for FoxNews.

They constantly report their own polling with a breathlessness that should be reserved for swimming underwater.

[Theophilus]

"photo finish" = stay tuned to FOX.

VOTE because it's your loving duty to God and your neighbor, never because of polls!

And he changeth the times and the seasons: he removeth kings, and setteth up kings: he giveth wisdom unto the wise, and knowledge to them that know understanding

[Texas Fossil]

“The survey, released Wednesday, “

Double Bag Barf Alert, for FOX News.

[Common Sense 101]

The Texas senate race will NOT be close...

[Liz]

Talarico leads by wide margins among Black voters (+65 points), urban voters
(+29), those under age 30 (+28), and women with a college degree (+23).

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Which proves once again liberal women should be banned from getting degrees.

[Fledermaus]

I agree. They are rarely close.

[Carl Vehse]

Any Texan who votes for Talafreako is a traitor to the United States and to Texas (Article I, Sect. 22).

[RightOnTheBorder]

True the Bush/Cornyn traitor camp made this harder than it had to be but enough has been put out there about Talarico to scare their voters back to Paxton. Talarico isn’t like Beto, an ambitious climber beta-male, he’s a dead eyed sicko who would enjoy participating in an abortion or transing operation if he could. I think we should be checking his basement for mutilated cats.

[bankwalker]

you spelled “voting” wrong ...

[Army Air Corps]

AFYI ping

[Liz]

Oops

[Army Air Corps]

Yesterday, i did my part and voted for Abbott, Paxton, and the rest of the Republicans down ballot.

[Impala64ssa]

[JimRed]

As progressive Christians, we are committed to a path of life-long learning.

And supporting abortion, faggotry and trans-child genital mutilation.

[Resolute Conservative]

They probably are not to start with, they are from west or east coast and came here like a cancer.

[HamiltonJay]

Fox Polls are almost always off, usually several points in the D favor. Don’t know who they use, but their polls nearly always overstate dems.

[Dan in Wichita]

Fox News polls are among the very worst, usually underestimating GOP strength significantly. Their polls have been terrible for years, but they have done nothing to improve them. My guess is that Fox thinks they can draw in more Democrat viewers by consistently publishing questionable polls that favors them. Super sorry strategy, as far as I'm concerned.

If Fox says Paxton is moving up and now tied with Talarico, that probably means Paxton is moving well ahead.