Posted on 10/06/2026 2:18:16 PM PDT by EnderWiggin1970
The US debt load crossed $40 trillion in August 2026. The Treasury publishes the number and updates it every business day. $32.4 trillion of it is borrowed from investors, pension funds, and foreign governments. Another $7.7 trillion is owed to the government's trust funds, including the funds that pay Social Security and Medicare. I spent two terms chairing the House Financial Institutions Committee, reading numbers like these, page after page. The pace worried me more than the total ever did.
Everyone quotes the Congressional Budget Office’s baseline when they talk about where the debt is headed. CBO is the nonpartisan office Congress itself relies on to score what current law costs. A baseline is simply what CBO expects to happen if nothing changes: no new laws, no recessions, no shocks, current policy running forward on autopilot. On CBO’s published figures, debt held by the public compounds at 5.8% a year over the next decade under that baseline.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearmarkets.com ...
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Hyperinflation is not necessary—just a steady and gradual increase in inflation to cover the increased interest cost.
Over a few decades the economy would be ruined—but hyperinflation would just be the last steps at the very end.
It is probably best viewed as an exponential curve—so for many years the effect would be relatively mild—and then bang.
No one plans to have hyperinflation. But that’s what you get when a “steady and gradual increase in inflation” gets out of hand. And when people are told or realize that inflation will be picking up, it creates exactly the kind of behavior (increasing velocity of money and unwillingness to hold cash) that creates hyperinflation. I’m skeptical a government could “manage” a high-inflation regime to reduce the debt successfully, based on past experiences.
There is another option. Grow the economy faster than inflation.
Imho the bigger risk in the next few years is the collapse of commercial real estate combined with the bankruptcy of some big AI players who cannot produce cash flow.
That would be deflationary of course—and could offset wackadoodle government spending giving an illusion of stability.
Speculative opinion pieces:
Study these words and once they are in your are aware of them you will clearly see how you are being manipulated. The following is the result of my prompt with Gemini:
In journalism and media analysis, these terms are often called hedging words, modal verbs, or weasel words. They allow writers to report on predictions, rumors, or subjective interpretations as headlines without asserting them as definitive facts.
These words shift a sentence from a factual statement to a theoretical scenario.
Could (”New Policy Could Cost Billions”)
May (”Target May Close Dozens of Stores”)
Might (”Tensions Might Escalates Next Month”)
Would (”Proposed Law Would Target Small Businesses”)
Should (”Changes Should Spark Consumer Backlash”*)
2. Hedging & Attributive Verbs (Non-Definitive Actions)
These verbs allow the writer to present an interpretation or unverified statement while avoiding direct assertion.
Suggests / Hints / Signals (”Report Suggests Misconduct”)
Appears / Seems (”Economy Seems to Stumble”)
Alleges / Claims (”Lawsuit Alleges Fraud”)
Purports / Hypothesizes (”Study Purports Link Between...”)
Threatens / Portends (”Decisions Threaten Stability”)
3. Qualifying Adverbs & Adjectives (Softening Reality)
Adverbs that distance the reporter from confirming whether the claim is actually true.
Reportedly (”CEO Reportedly Considering Resignation”)
Allegedly (”Official Allegedly Tied to Scandal”)
Potentially / Conceivably (”Move Potentially Devastating for Workers”)
Arguably (”The Arguably Worst Decision of the Quarter”)
Likely / Unlikely (”Tax Cut Likely to Fail”)
Ostensibly / Supposedly (”Ostensibly Neutral Policy Sparks Debate”)
4. Vague Sourcing & Anonymous Attribution (”Weasel Phrases”)
Phrases that project authority or consensus without identifying a specific person making the claim.
“Experts warn...” / “Analysts fear...”
“Sources say...” / “Insiders claim...”
“Critics argue...” / “Observers note...”
“Questions linger...” / “Doubts arise...”
“Some believe...” / “Many consider...”
5. Subjective & Speculative Nouns (Framing Opinions as Events)
Nouns that turn feelings, speculation, or subjective reactions into the main subject of a news headline.
Fears / Concerns (”Fears Mount Over Inflation”)
Outrage / Backlash (”Outrage Grows After Announcement”)
Speculation / Rumors (”Speculation Surrounds Next Quarter”)
Uncertainty / Confusion (”Confusion Reigns After Policy Shift”)
Ponzi schemes do that.... I plan on bouncing checks left and right in 2035 just like the government, if I’m still alive. I figured 7 or 8 years waiting on a trial, ankle bracelet at most then 3 hots and a cot..I’m good.
The US debt load crossed $40 trillion in August 2026.
<><>$32.4 trillion is borrowed
<><>borrowed from investors, pension funds, and foreign governments.
<><>$7.7 trillion is owed to the government’s trust funds,
<><>trust funds that pay Social Security and Medicare.
Its a great plan but Congress also keeps increasing spending.
President Ronald Reagan’s final budget for the 1989 fiscal year proposed total outlays of approximately $1.094 trillion
The U.S. total federal budget (spending/outlays) for fiscal year 2025 was $7.01 trillion
Yep. Raise all the revenue you want.Grow the economy all you can. It won't mean anything until you slash spending
I wish there a party (and a president) that are true fiscal conservatives
And actually, since there is more room for unexpected bad stuff to happen rather than an unexpected utopia to suddenly emerge, I think we should give more consideration to the question: What if the economy and government finances are not as rosy the next 10-20 years as they have been? What if things do get fundamentally worse?
Don’t worry, we won’t run out of money. Our Central Bankers led by CONgress will print everything we need. I’m sure they know what they are doing, they are politicians after all...
this confuses me.
Interest paid to the Federal Reserve (primarily from U.S. government securities and loans) first covers the Fed’s own operating and administrative expenses, and then any remaining net earnings are transferred directly to the U.S. Treasury
The fed reserve takes about 5% for their expenses.
All the years I worked before becoming disabled, part of my check went to the Thrift Savings Plan. But no messing with it, no investing. Just earning interest.
Was absolutely not interested in the markets and still am not. Too volatile too risky.
One year, during a perilous downturn in the markets, my parents lost over $100K.
Horrible
Only have one credit card but it has no limit so I guess I’m good !! Thanks !!
All credit cards have a limit. The no-limit credit cards, like American Express, just won’t tell you what it is.
Dear Mr. Buffett:
Looking over your Schedule D, you seem to earn a pretty good return on your money - much better than 2% plus the federal new borrowing interest rate.
We’d like to lend your tax money back to you at 2% plus the federal new borrowing interest rate for either 5 or 10 years, your choice.
We can use your interest payment of that 2% to offset an equal amount on our debt.
Uncle Sam & associates
Another possibility is to let the federal government borrow at the banks’ CD interest rate when at least 1% less than the federal new borrowing interest rate on like maturities.
If the federal government is paying 6% and the bank is paying 4%, the federal government might insist the bank lend it half of new 4% CD money at 4%.
Raise taxes on government pensions.
What can the pensioners do? Quit their jobs?
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