Iran just got handed a defeat in Hormuz: Crude exports are back to prewar levels even after Tehran repeatedly declared it closed(Ha,Ha,Ha!)

MSN ^ | October 01, 2026 | Harrison Kass

[Vendome]

Is the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important chokepoints, returning to normal? Crude oil exports through the strait have returned to prewar levels, according to CNBC-cited data. Seven-day averages, as of last Monday, were 13.5 million barrels per day through the strait, roughly matching the prewar crude baseline.

More notably, total crude exports from the Middle East region, including the Persian Gulf and Red Sea, reached 19.5 million bpd—above the prewar baseline of roughly 17 million bpd. The uptick in exports has occurred despite tumultuous circumstances, i.e., Iran repeatedly declaring Hormuz closed, US naval blockades, and the ongoing war. But the headline numbers obscure an important metric: while crude has recovered, refined fuels have not. So global consumers are likely to still feel economic pain, even as oil begins moving from the Persian Gulf again in meaningful quantities.

---

TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: beach; bunts; slap; stupid

[Vendome]

WTI has fallen below $90.

The block is at the refineries, not supply.

[central_va]

TDSers are deeply saddened.

[Fai Mao]

“The block is at the refineries, not supply.”

If that were true, the prices wouldn’t rise within hours of the price of crude going up.

It is simply an excuse to keep from lowering prices by the monopolies that control the supply

[Antoninus]

Crude is down sharply this morning.

[Vendome]

KcuF em...

[Sam Gamgee]

A new normal? Fine with me. As long as we getting the crude out at normal levels.

[The Louiswu]

But shipping is still getting attacked:

On October 1, 2026, I can verify one attack on commercial shipping that actually occurred that day in the Strait of Hormuz: 1 tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile while transiting the Strait. UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported the vessel caught fire; the crew was reported safe.

The incident was reported at about 17:50 UTC (12:50 p.m. CDT) on October 1. Maritime reporting identifies the vessel as a Kuwait-flagged VLCC associated with Kuwait Oil Tanker Company, although some details were still being confirmed. Important distinction There were also three tanker attacks reported on October 1, but those attacks occurred on September 29 and were reported by UKMTO on September 30/October 1. Reuters reported that the three Liberian-flagged tankers Mersin Prosperity, Sinbad and Al Ruwais were struck by projectiles. So, for attacks that actually occurred on October 1: 1 confirmed/reported commercial vessel attack.

[sopo]

MSN ? That’s a very depressed news organization today, their guys losing o badly they may have to call the highjacked airplane a highjacked airplane

[sauropod]

.

[Vendome]

I couldn’t figure where my friends were getting their contrived sources to be angry about and of the most obscure crap.

Found MSN closely mirrors the lame invented crap I have to hear about that previously I had no knowledge of.

Now they are my 1st news feed so I am prepared to discuss

Like yesterday I had to endure lauditories of Jack Smith who is renowned.

“Really?” I said. He is a hatchet man whose job in nearly case isn’t securing a prosecution but, to bleed a man on out on process and that is why is the most overturned prosecutor, why the courts have have found in the case of Trump he violated process, etc, etc,

Moreover, I don’t care about Jack Smith. Nothing will happen and he is not news worthy...

[Vehmgericht]

What the media reports may, or may not, be true. I read their reports just for laughs. I will determine how things are going with my own eyes. The reality will be revealed while driving down the interstate and viewing the service center gas signs.

[Bobbyvotes]

So are all the ISOLATIONISTS here are sad as well.

[ETCM]

Iran continues to attack tankers using the US route through Omani waters. Most attacks are defeated by the USN or just fail, though some ships have been seriously damaged. The current US policy appears to be restraint. No US retaliation means no Iranian strikes on Arab oil infrastructure. I guess we will see if the blockade is an effective strategy to bring Iran to heel. If it is, maybe accepting some tanker attacks is better than Iran destroying Arab oil and gas facilities (and burning through interceptors we can’t afford). Of course Trump’s public statements seem to indicate this is just a pause until after the election, when US strikes will resume.

[AppyPappy]

Refined is down 3%

[sopo]

oh. yeah, that newsfeed that comes in on Edge is absolutely rock bottom. They even ran something from Daily Kos the other day, I had no idea it was even still around, it is #1 misinformation now that top of the hour news from AP on radio fading out. These are almost unavoidable DEM propaganda feeds I know about for decades. That is really a bunch of juveniles in the news operation at MSN.

[sopo]

Who knew Europe was holding back a huge amount of diesel in reserve. Well, somebody knew, but they weren’t going to let us know before midterms. I’m going to enjoy watching thtat come down. I wonder what brought that fact out ? It’s almost like an October surprise!

[Paul R.]

The two both affect the prices consumers see, with similar, but not identical results: Refined product shortages usually cause even more intense spikes than do crude shortages or expected crude shortages of the same magnitude. Then there is the very large factor of reserves being drawn down, be they government reserves (say, China’s, or the USA’s SPR), or they may be the so-called “floating reserves” on tankers not actually going anywhere, or other private reserves, and so on. There are also a whole host of logistical issues when normal flow and distribution get mucked up.

Right now, there is a tremendous “hole” in available global reserves, and until those are replenished, that also drives prices up. Low reserves = risk, and risk generates high prices. (A good thing, actually, or nobody would then take additional risks to increase supply.)

Foolish people squawk about “the monopoly’s” profits, but, if you compare you will see that even Exxon’s percentage profits in this last Q2 were about half of... Microsoft’s, and the oil business is riskier (see 2020, for example).

As for these multiple factors in fuel prices, it’s not really a proper analogy, but consider: All sorts of things can cause lack of oxygen to the brain. The exact reason does not matter much to the effect: The lack will impair or even kill the brain, if bad enough, regardless of whether the problem is due to strangulation, a chemical like CO2, blood loss, a heart attack, etc.

[Merrick]

That’s correct - but there is going to be *slight* relief on diesel. The EU is releasing BOTH crude and diesel per agreement, so the fraction of diesel in the 100M barrel release will help a little.

https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4397727/posts

[Nervous Tick]

>> TDSers are deeply saddened.

“FReeper trolls hardest hit.”
Maybe they’ll shut their traitor yaps now.

[spintreebob]

If oil supply is increasing and EU is releasing diesel in storage then the US oil companies should reduce the price in the US...unless they intentionally want to take sides against Trump and the Republicans in Nov.