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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 19, 2026 (Ukrainian forces have successfully contested both the strategic and the operational initiative since late 2025)
Institute for the Study of War ^ | September 19, 2026 | Institute for the Study of War

Posted on 09/20/2026 2:59:04 PM PDT by BeauBo

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to greatly exaggerate the extent of Russian advances across the frontline to construct a false narrative of Russian battlefield progress for domestic and international audiences... The Russian MoD claimed on September 19 that Russian forces have seized over 5,300 square kilometers and more than 220 settlements in Ukraine since the start of 2026, including over 670 square kilometers and 27 settlements so far in September 2026. ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces have seized only 147.7 square kilometers and 40 settlements, but have lost a net of 20 settlements in 2026...

...ISW has observed evidence to assess that Ukrainian forces, on the other hand, have liberated at least 972.56 square kilometers and 60 settlements in 2026. The Russian MoD’s September 19 claims are part of a longstanding Kremlin effort to use aggrandized claims of battlefield advances to convince Ukraine and its partners that Ukrainian defenses will collapse and that Ukraine should surrender in the face of an allegedly inevitable Russian victory. Exaggerated Russian claims likely also result from the culture of pervasive lying within the Russian military.

Ukrainian forces have, in fact, successfully contested both the strategic and the operational initiative since late 2025, having held Russian forces to near-zero gains since March 2026 and having conducted successful counterattacks that have liberated significant amounts of territory in the Kupyansk, Oleksandrivka, and Lyman directions.

(Excerpt) Read more at understandingwar.org ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Russia; Ukraine
KEYWORDS: 200000deserters; 57squaremiles; azovrecruitersonline; canadasucksdude; canuckcommies; democratgravytrain; failedinvasion; foreigners4bidenbux; foreigntrollsonfr; igw; isodessaok; mrbeanoncrackfans; muga; neverwasourwar; notourwar; odessaisisolated; russianbogeyman; russiasucksdude; russophrenicsonfr; sendanothertrillion; stillnotourwar; ukraineuberalles; yurpeons; zeepersarerinosdude

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A little ground truth from professional Intel analysts.

Essentially a standstill at the front line all year, with average Russian casualties now running at the highest point of the war - around one per minute (1,440 per day).


1 posted on 09/20/2026 2:59:04 PM PDT by BeauBo
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To: BeauBo

Good… they don’t need the latest $27 billion they’re demanding.


2 posted on 09/20/2026 3:03:27 PM PDT by House Atreides (I’m now ULTRA-MAGA-PRO-MAX)
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To: House Atreides

A big part of Ukraine’s performance, has been the high degree of assistance, direct aid and loans that they receive; from so many countries, including several with GDP’s larger than Russia’s.

No nation gives Russia anything. Not China, Not North Korea, not Iran, not even Belarus. Russia has to buy whatever it gets.


3 posted on 09/20/2026 3:20:47 PM PDT by BeauBo
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To: House Atreides

A big part of Ukraine’s performance, has been the high degree of assistance, direct aid and loans that they receive; from so many countries, including several with GDP’s larger than Russia’s.

No nation gives Russia anything. Not China, Not North Korea, not Iran, not even Belarus. Russia has to buy whatever it gets.


4 posted on 09/20/2026 3:20:47 PM PDT by BeauBo
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To: BeauBo

“A big part of Ukraine’s performance, has been the high degree of assistance, direct aid and loans that they receive; from so many countries, including several with GDP’s larger than Russia’s.

No nation gives Russia anything. Not China, Not North Korea, not Iran, not even Belarus. Russia has to buy whatever it gets.”
___________________________________________________________

Poor little Russia.... “Россия — жертва Путина”


5 posted on 09/20/2026 3:38:36 PM PDT by Bob Wills is still the king (Wake up and smell the coffee!)
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To: House Atreides

“Good… they don’t need the latest $27 billion they’re demanding.”
____________________________________________________________

Anything that further destroys Russia’s military capabilities and kills Russian soldiers is a benefit to the free world. We should give Ukraine double for their performance here.


6 posted on 09/20/2026 3:40:15 PM PDT by Bob Wills is still the king (Wake up and smell the coffee!)
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To: House Atreides
Hitler's propaganda bragged he would "wring Britain's neck like a chicken."

Winston Churchill: "some chicken, some neck."

Donald Trump: "you have no cards to play"

The verdict of history: President Trump is no more capable of judging military reality in Ukraine than he is in Iran.


7 posted on 09/20/2026 3:42:17 PM PDT by nathanbedford (Attack, repeat, attack! - Bull Halsey)
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To: BeauBo; House Atreides
What a wonderful post. To bad you're late with it.

Your "other" thread had it in the early hours this day, the 4,416th comment of a thread running now since December of 2025.

Since you commented to that thread, you knew it had been posted. Nothing like amplifying the messaging.

4,416 posted on 9/20/2026, 3:11:28 AM by AdmSmith

8 posted on 09/20/2026 3:49:43 PM PDT by Worldtraveler once upon a time (Degrow government)
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To: BeauBo
so many countries, including several with GDP’s larger than Russia’s.

No nation gives Russia anything.

Is this the last preposterous assertion from which to defend Russia, an indefensible, murderous, criminal aggressor- that Russia is an underdog?


9 posted on 09/20/2026 3:51:15 PM PDT by nathanbedford (Attack, repeat, attack! - Bull Halsey)
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To: nathanbedford

“Donald Trump: “you have no cards to play””

He was negotiating. He is always working it.

As they say, take him seriously, but not literally.

He is getting Europe to finally step up and pay the bill for the the defense of Ukraine. For that, he had to appear credibly willing to allow them to fall.


10 posted on 09/20/2026 3:52:53 PM PDT by BeauBo
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To: nathanbedford

“No nation gives Russia anything.”

By no means do I seek to defend or excuse Russia for their indefensible, murderous and criminal invasion.

Their moral bankruptcy is highlighted by the fact that no nation contributes to their effort.

The support that Ukraine receives from its allies has been vital component in achieving the battlefield results that have occurred this year - Russia’s advance has effectively halted on the ground.


11 posted on 09/20/2026 3:59:24 PM PDT by BeauBo
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To: BeauBo

Since Trump made the statement, Ukraine has played a lot of cards and has showing they are building a deck of cards.

Russia has also played cards and is building a deck, but in the last few months, Ukraine appears to be a little bit more successful.

Different motivations. Ukraine wants to survive. Putin originally wanted to expand, claiming survival necessitated it. Now Putin also wants to survive (not the same as Russian survival).

Deadlock. Stalemate. Protracted, nasty war.


12 posted on 09/20/2026 4:04:02 PM PDT by marktwain (----------------------)
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To: Worldtraveler once upon a time

This is a great professionally developed battlefield summary of the whole of 2026, for the convenience of our community.

The simply truth is that Russian gains on the ground have come to virtual standstill in Ukraine this year, and their costs and casualty rates are increasing.


13 posted on 09/20/2026 4:04:24 PM PDT by BeauBo
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To: BeauBo
Sorry I misunderstood you, you actually made the point far better than I did.


14 posted on 09/20/2026 4:21:09 PM PDT by nathanbedford (Attack, repeat, attack! - Bull Halsey)
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To: BeauBo

At my age, I think this shit will still be going on after I’m gone.


15 posted on 09/20/2026 4:25:11 PM PDT by kawhill (Dywedwch + Add translation Welsh-English dictionary 'Tell Us')
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To: BeauBo

Informative, thanks for showing it to us.


16 posted on 09/20/2026 4:28:13 PM PDT by ansel12
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To: BeauBo

Russian casualties ....1,440 per day.”

How many of those are North Korean and non-Russian mercenaries?
Ukraine also has mercenaries.
War is a bloody mess, especially when it is mostly between 2 egos.
A case might be made to assassinate the 2 egos. Then the war would have no purpose.


17 posted on 09/20/2026 4:43:41 PM PDT by spintreebob (:)
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To: BeauBo
I love these fantasy articles put out by pro-western think tanks. Now start watching the daily reports from Military Summary Channel, THETI Mapping, AMK Mapping, Defense Politics Asia and so on. Keep in mind the think tanks and pro-western media orgs were full of happy talk right up until the Taliban overran Afghanistan after twenty years of war, and would actually have you believe the US is winning and Iran will fall any day now, as the US retreats from the region amidst ludicrous bluster from the CIC.
18 posted on 09/20/2026 4:46:15 PM PDT by EnderWiggin1970
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To: Worldtraveler once upon a time
Russian forces have seized only 147.7 square kilometers

148 sq. km = 57 sq. miles

That's a circle just over 8 miles in diameter

THAT'S all that Russia has managed to steal this year, despite still incurring over 6000 troops killed each month since the war began

Obviously, Russia has no chance of winning this


19 posted on 09/20/2026 4:46:50 PM PDT by canuck_conservative (Russia lies all the time)
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To: BeauBo

“Donald Trump: “you have no cards to play”

All non-combatants can learn from the use of drones and other things. That knowledge is critical to win when we are at war. One of the big lessons of Iran is that we are not skilled in use of drones in Iran to the extent that we should be. We are using 10 million dollar planes to do the work of 10 thousand dollar drones. That is not the way to win a war.


20 posted on 09/20/2026 4:49:39 PM PDT by spintreebob (:)
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