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Posted on 09/17/2026 10:45:51 AM PDT by Antoninus
The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.
5.1%
Third-Quarter GDPNow Estimate for 2026:Q3
Updated: September 17, 2026
Next update: September 25, 2026
*GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model.
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Poverty at record LOW levels.
Border crossing at record LOW levels.
Violent crime at record LOW levels.
Yet every one complains that gas and hamburgers are too high in price.
I just got my first heating oil bill. $5.49 a gallon for heating oil. Thank goodness I have a small home to heat.
Overshooting the Target: Because it treats these unusual spikes as permanent trends early on, the model often overshoots consensus expectations.
Yes, those prices are going to be brutal if they hold into the winter.
> Yet every one complains that gas and hamburgers are too high in price.<
You’re thinking calmly and logically. Unfortunately for the GOP, most voters don’t think that way. They don’t pour over statistics, although maybe they should.
Instead, they look at the prices on grocery shelves and on gas station signs. They are not happy campers. The GOP needs to do something to counter this. But I’m not sure exactly what.
(Don’t shoot the messenger.)
It’s because every person is affected by those two things you mentioned. The others aren’t directly affected on a daily basis. I’m shocked you can’t see the difference.
I put in a Harman pellet stove insert ten years back. Back then I was concerned because oil went to $150(thanks Obama). Heating oil got over $4/gallon.
Now, it is over $5.
The first couple years you had to buy pellets in September because they would sell out by mid winter.So, I would buy three pallets(50 bags @ 40#). Then all the big box stores got into selling them. The last few years I have been buying them 10-25 at a time. Typically at Tractor Supply. They have a hardwood blend pellet that I have had decent luck with.
The other thing is that the quality of the pellets has gotten a lot better. There is not as much fines/dust in the bags. There is a BTU standard of about 8000 on each bag. So even the cheaper pellets burn fine in a Harman stove.
That’s my take as well. On an inflation basis since the oil crisis of the 70s, gasoline is quite cheap.
Mebbe if we didn’t shut down two big refineries in CA we wouldn’t have this problem. Thank a Democrat for that.
If I have a good job, citizenship and live in a low crime area which of those things do you think impact me the most?
Trump’s fault.
That’s a good question with an obvious answer. We’re in the same situation. Price of groceries is insane. Gas in our area is still under $4, but I can see it rising.
Pro American economic policies work. Who knew?
A buck a gallon back in ‘75 was serious jack.
Don’t eat so much.
> Mebbe if we didn’t shut down two big refineries in CA we wouldn’t have this problem. <
You might be on to something there. Folks are upset about higher prices. The GOP needs to counter this. Reminding them about inflation under Biden won’t do. The average voter doesn’t care about what is essentially ancient history.
But a series of ads talking about how Democrats have shut down refineries - that might make a dent.
That’s because nearly all Americans have to drive to and from work and grab burgers going both ways. Two car families get hit twice as hard.
Yup. Remember it well.
We really need to build refineries if we are going to be self sufficient with energy. More fracking would help too.
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