Wall Street Confronts Prospect of New Era After Treasury Yield Hits 5%

The Wall Street Journal ^ | Sept. 14, 2026 5:06 pm ET | Sam Goldfarb

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Investors weigh whether the 10-year note’s yield will decisively break through the threshold

The last time the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose above 5%, the U.S. economy was dealing with pandemic aftershocks. This time, the main culprit is a war with no clear end in sight.

Escalating fears over energy prices and inflation drove the 10-year yield above 5% Monday, a pivotal milestone that is forcing investors to confront whether the bond market is entering a new era.

The answer is set to have sweeping implications for consumers and businesses alike—and could end up playing a role in the coming midterm elections. The yield on the 10-year Treasury is a critical driver of interest rates throughout the economy, and its recent rise has already pushed mortgage rates back up toward 7%. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been taking extraordinary measures to contain yields, with little to show for it so far.

Now, traders are questioning whether 5% will be a ceiling for the 10-year yield, as it was in 2023, or whether the yield will decisively break through that threshold, creating a borrowing environment more like that of the 2000s, when the yield occasionally spent months above 5%. Some are even thinking about the 1990s, when the yield spent years at that level.

Higher yields, in the long run, would significantly drive up borrowing costs for the U.S. government, which already spends more on interest than on national defense.

“Today’s number should scare Congress,” Rep. David Schweikert (R., Ariz.), who is leaving the House after this year, wrote on social media on Monday.

Treasury yields,...

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TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government
KEYWORDS:

[ComputerGuy]

I’m 80 years old. Should I care?

[spintreebob]

“What does the new Census data tell us about poverty, income, and health insurance in 2025 — and what does it leave out?”

“September 15 is “Poverty Day,” when the Census Bureau will release national data on poverty, income, and health insurance. It will also release the Supplemental Poverty Measure, which shows us how the programs we fight for help lift people out of poverty—and how costs such as health care and childcare push them into poverty.

We are holding a rapid response webinar at 4PM ET that same day to help you understand the data and how to use it in your advocacy.

We will start by hearing from Jared Bernstein, Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress and former Chair of President Biden’s Council of Economic Advisors. He will discuss what the new poverty and income numbers tell us about 2025 and what other economic indicators tell us about how people are faring in 2026.”

https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/4617888783435/WN_l5NKwDMLTTGyWCa5nOcwzg?link_id=3&can_id=70da007dda24815fcc120fa7d8286a58&source=email-rsvp-poverty-day-rapid-response-webinar&email_referrer=email_3401146___subject_3866955&email_subject=tomorrow-join-chn-and-our-panel-of-experts-for-this-special-poverty-day-rapid-response-webinar&&#/registration

Watch the SPIN. Are CATA, AmericaFirst ready with comments for voters?

73% of millionaires are self-made. 90%+ of those with a net worth above 100,000 are self-made.

How many people are public education and government welfare moving out of poverty.. Thas is what I would like to see.

[Gen.Blather]

The answer is not a war with no end in sight. The answer is Congress with no restraint. The way Congress works is, you vote for my bridge to nowhere and I vote for your high-speed rail. And then there’s the last vote needed to pass a bill. That guy can demand anything he wants.

I read an economist several years ago who said, “When the interest rate exceeds four percent the cost of paying back the debt will rapidly rise to all the money taken in by taxes.

Debt between 1946 and probably the late ‘60’s was retired simply because we outgrew it. The population has been declining for decades. The world is saturated with products and there is not as much opportunity to grow financially or demographically. The government needs to retrench and try to do less. Instead, it is always expanding. On top of that it is throwing ever more impediments to profit with more and more regulation.

Future generations will be paying this debt for their entire existence.

[unclebankster]

I’m 80 years old. Should I care?

**********************

I don’t care and I’m 25 years younger, so at any age the “scary stories” about economic problems should be taken with a grain of salt.

The bond market for treasuries will be fine & although the borrowing for corporations will be higher they’ll be alright as well.

[BenLurkin]

[unclebankster]

Debt between 1946 and probably the late ‘60’s was retired simply because we outgrew it. The population has been declining for decades. The world is saturated with products and there is not as much opportunity to grow financially or demographically. The government needs to retrench and try to do less. Instead, it is always expanding. On top of that it is throwing ever more impediments to profit with more and more regulation.

Future generations will be paying this debt for their entire existence.

**********************

There’s going to be a huge flattening or an actual contraction in population, in the big economies that matter to the global economy over the next 20 years. It’s going to be very interesting how Capital and Governments manage this historic phenomenon of dropping birthrates moving forward.

As far as the national debt......I don’t care, it’s out of my control.

If household debt, business debt, & state/local debt percentages of GDP is lower than the federal debt % to GDP, than I’ll take that as an economic win in the right direction.

[central_va]

Wages should sky rocket, right?

[E. Pluribus Unum]

I’m 80 years old. Should I care?

No, because it is all about you. 🤡

[ProtectOurFreedom]

Birth rate for Americans is below replacement and sinking. Not to worry, though. The masses of third-worlders here reproduce at 2X and 3X replacement rate. Can you say “Allah Akbar”?

[unclebankster]

Wages should sky rocket, right?

**********

No they won’t sky rocket, but labor should get a very good return over the next 30 years.

[central_va]

So when do wages EVER go up? Seems like with a flood of immigrants wages go down and stay flat. When workers are in short supply wages maybe go up. It's a rigged system and we wonder why there is a push for socialism.

[unclebankster]

So when do wages EVER go up? Seems like with a flood of immigrants wages go down and stay flat. When workers are in short supply wages maybe go up. It’s a rigged system and we wonder why there is a push for socialism.

***********************

Wages have been going up, but the problem is the “cost of living” is outpacing the wage gains. The number one problem is the high valuations and bloat in the real estate markets.

The good news is a bunch of old people around the globe aren’t selling until they die, and a lot of them will be dying over the next 15 years & they won’t be taking their real estate to the “other side.”

[chud]

I don’t care and I’m 25 years younger, so at any age the “scary stories” about economic problems should be taken with a grain of salt.

Ah yes, "This is fine" as the house burns down.

[unclebankster]

Birth rate for Americans is below replacement and sinking. Not to worry, though. The masses of third-worlders here reproduce at 2X and 3X replacement rate. Can you say “Allah Akbar”?

*****************

“Allah Akbar” types have mosques in the big urban areas with the rest of our “foreigner centric cities.” To actually take over our country those mosques would have to outnumber our Christian Churches throughout the country.

That isn’t going to happen at the current pace of Muslim immigration to the United States.

[unclebankster]

Ah yes, “This is fine” as the house burns down.

********************

You say the economic house is burning down because a fire alarm went off while I was cooking soup on a burner. All that really happened was smoke setting off an alarm, not a house on fire.

Your scaremongering about an economic Armageddon isn’t very much different.

[TTFX]

Future generations will be paying this debt for their entire existence.

- - - - - - -

Why? Why would they feel they should pay it?

[Theoria]

Exactly why the country has gone to $hit.

[Alberta's Child]

The big problem as I see it is that you’ve got the federal debt growing with no sign of subsiding, and interest rates are above 5% at a time when economists celebrate a 2.5% GDP growth rate as if it is the mid-1980s.