Click here: to donate by Credit Card
Or here: to donate by PayPal
Or by mail to: Free Republic, LLC - PO Box 9771 - Fresno, CA 93794
Thank you very much and God bless you.
Posted on 09/04/2026 2:10:02 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August, more than triple Wall Street’s forecast, giving the Federal Reserve more room to raise interest rates despite President Donald Trump’s escalating demands for cuts.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected just 53,000 new jobs.
The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, even as the labor force expanded by 683,000 people and the participation rate rose to 61.6%.
Previous months also looked stronger after revisions. June payroll growth was raised from 20,000 to 31,000, while July was revised from a loss of 23,000 jobs to a gain of 21,000. Combined, the revisions added 55,000 jobs to the previous estimates.
Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% during August and 3.1% from a year earlier, slightly above expectations.
The report immediately shifted financial markets. Treasury yields rose, stock futures weakened and traders increased the implied probability of a quarter-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 policy meeting.
Federal Reserve officials have been balancing two competing risks: inflation remaining above the central bank’s 2% target and high borrowing costs eventually causing a sharp deterioration in employment.
August’s report reduces the urgency of the second concern.
The unemployment rate remains low, employers are still hiring and the broader U-6 measure of labor underutilization fell to 7.7%, its lowest level since June 2025. The number of people working part time for economic reasons also declined by 414,000.
That gives the Fed greater freedom to concentrate on inflation.
Markets are now assigning roughly 60% odds to a quarter-point rate increase in September, according to CME FedWatch. Those expectations could move sharply again when the latest producer and consumer inflation reports arrive next week.Economics
The unexpectedly strong jobs report arrived as Trump intensified his pressure on Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and the central bank’s policymakers.
Trump called the August data a “great jobs number,” while arguing that the Fed should lower rates to improve America’s competitive position. He also threatened to restrict trade with countries running surpluses against the United States unless rates are reduced.
That threat, covered in Global Market News’ earlier report, creates an unusual policy conflict.
Stronger employment gives the Fed a reason to consider higher rates. Trump sees those same high rates as a disadvantage for American businesses, borrowers and exporters.
Investors are therefore confronting two forms of policy risk at once: tighter monetary policy from the Fed and potentially more aggressive trade action from the White House.
Short-term Treasury yields are especially sensitive to expectations for Fed policy. If inflation remains firm next week, the combination of resilient hiring and persistent price pressure could strengthen the case for a September hike.
That would likely keep pressure on bond prices and borrowing costs across mortgages, corporate debt and consumer credit.
Growth stocks, smaller companies and highly leveraged businesses are generally more vulnerable when expected interest rates rise.
Banks and other financial companies could receive some benefit from higher rates, although that advantage depends on credit quality and whether higher borrowing costs eventually weaken loan demand.
Defensive sectors may attract more attention if investors begin preparing for a longer period of restrictive monetary policy.
A more hawkish Fed outlook can support the U.S. dollar by increasing the relative yield available on dollar-denominated assets.Geographic Reference
A stronger dollar can create headwinds for multinational companies by reducing the value of overseas revenue when converted back into dollars. It can also pressure commodities and emerging-market assets priced in the U.S. currency.
The 162,000 payroll gain looks broadly encouraging, though the underlying industry data show significant differences.
Restaurants and bars added 59,000 jobs, while local government education added 42,000. Together, those two categories accounted for more than 60% of the monthly increase.
Manufacturing added 16,000 jobs, continuing a recovery that has produced 58,000 positions since December. Health care added just 13,000 jobs, well below its average monthly gain of 32,000 over the previous year.
The information sector lost 23,000 jobs, including declines in data processing, web hosting, publishing and broadcasting.Reference
Those losses will add to concerns about AI-related job displacement. The monthly data alone cannot establish AI as the cause. Corporate restructuring, weaker media economics and shifting technology spending could also be contributing.
The more useful conclusion is that the labor market remains resilient at the national level while becoming increasingly uneven across industries.
A strong jobs report normally signals healthy economic growth. In the current environment, it can also delay relief from high borrowing costs.
That helps explain why stock futures weakened despite the large payroll beat. Investors immediately began pricing in a higher probability that rates will remain elevated or move even higher.
The report therefore carries two messages. The economy appears stronger than economists expected, while the path toward lower rates just became more difficult.
August’s jobs report removes one of the biggest arguments against another rate hike.
Payroll growth rebounded, unemployment remained at 4.1% and previous months were revised higher. The labor market appears stable enough for the Fed to keep its attention on inflation.
Next week’s inflation reports now carry even greater market significance. If prices remain elevated, a September rate hike could quickly move from a possibility to the market’s base case.
|
|
Click here: to donate by Credit Card Or here: to donate by PayPal Or by mail to: Free Republic, LLC - PO Box 9771 - Fresno, CA 93794 Thank you very much and God bless you. |
We are well above the Fed target rate, have been some time. I’m surprised they haven’t raised rates yet.
They need to raise rates now. The inflation report next Friday will likely give them what they need to raise rates.
Annual Wage Growth (August 2026): 3.1%
Annual Inflation Rate (July 2026 CPI): 3.4%
The Gap: Currently, annual wage growth is lagging behind inflation by 0.3 percentage points, meaning overall consumer purchasing power experienced a slight relative decline compared to the previous year
Affordability is going to be a major issue in November.
🙄
I’m pro-hike.
Kevin Warsh doesn’t take my calls - and it’s starting to bother me that he keeps sending police to my home (kidding!) - but I just see 5 things:
1. A stubborn 3% and change inflation rate
2. Ballooning deficits and overall debt
3. Some 2-5-10-long treasury shell games that worked for about.... 24 hours
4. a 4.1% UE6 and resilient job market
5. an AI bubble - one I believe in and am invested in - but still a bubble making big bets on what looks like cheap money against their projections.
We're still at a low labor participation rate.
Even though the oil price per barrel isn’t much higher now than the pre-Iran conflict 2.95 gas pump price.
Something stinks.
Yep, not to mention the fact that the 3.1% increase may even push some into a higher tax bracket. What a deal.
The “higher tax bracket” only applies to the amount within that tax bracket.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.