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Posted on 08/17/2026 3:46:08 PM PDT by little jeremiah
I mentioned the other day that I'm less than frantic about the GOP's chances of losing the House and Senate come November, and that's regardless of what the polls say. I'm still holding to that. Maybe it's time we dove into why I feel that way.
You see, there's a shift happening in voter registration numbers that I'd wager the Democrat Party would prefer stayed buried on page nine of the Pig's Knuckle, N. Dak. fish wrapper. It's real, it's large, and it's confirmed across multiple independent sources — not one cherry-picked outlet with an axe to grind. Let's run the numbers, because they tell a story Democrat leadership clearly doesn't want told out loud. Grab ahold of something solid.
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
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Rest of article:
4.5 million voters shifted nationwide between 2020 and 2024, with Democrats bleeding registration ground in all 30 states that actually track party affiliation. I’ll point you to WPRI out of Providence rather than the New York Times, which originated the report, since I try to give that particular Funny Paper as little traffic as I can manage.
Then there’s the National Republican Congressional Committee’s district-level breakdown: a 229,000-voter gain for Republicans since 2024 alone; Democratic losses in 27 of 28 battleground districts studied; and a 737,000-voter total swing since 2020. That’s not noise. That’s a trend with a very clear direction. But of course there’s nothing to see here, citizen. Move along.
But wait, there’s more: Pennsylvania tells the same story in miniature. Democratic registration advantage there has collapsed from 916,274 in 2016 down to a mere 171,402 by the end of 2025 — a decade of hemorrhaging that shows absolutely no sign of scabbing over.
Rhode Island’s numbers back it up further: Republican registration is up 27%, and Democratic registration down 6%, since 2018. Worth flagging that the same trend is quietly juicing the number of voters registering as independents, too, which tells you plenty about how much either party’s brand is actually inspiring loyalty these days.
Zoom out to the national picture, and you get 45.4 million registered Democrats against 39.2 million Republicans — a real edge, sure, but shrinking fast, especially once you notice independents and unaffiliated voters now sit at 39.1 million, nearly matching the entire GOP registration total outright. Gallup separately clocks 45% of Americans now self-identifying as independents. Neither party, it turns out, is exactly winning anyone’s heart these days. That probably comes down to anger of the Democrat rank and file voters who can’t quite bring themselves to admit they’ve been had, and so instead of admitting the GOP has been right all along, they toss both parties off their voter ID.
Add in the broader battleground-district erosion Spotlight PA has been tracking, and you’ve got yourself a genuinely ugly structural picture for Democrats heading into November — assembled from five independent sources, not a single partisan press release.
Now, who do I think deserves at least partial credit for this exodus? The Democratic Socialists of America, and I’m not alone in that read. Even PBS — an outlet that spends most of its coverage of late, treating DSA candidates like the second coming — has been forced to acknowledge the party split DSA’s rise is causing. PBS cheerleading for socialists. Groundbreaking stuff, truly. [/sarcasm] These are in large part, lifelong Democrats shrinking away from what their party has become, even if they’re not willing to do a 180 just yet.
Marc Thiessen at the Washington Post has gone further, warning that the Democratic Socialists of America pose a genuinely “catastrophic” threat from inside the party’s own walls. His argument: Democrats are repeating the exact mistake Republicans made in 2022, saddling themselves with unelectable candidates who play great on Twitch and Bluesky, but terribly at the ballot box.
The registration trend structurally favors Republicans — 4.5 million voters nationally, hundreds of thousands concentrated in exactly the House battlegrounds that decide majorities, Pennsylvania’s cushion nearly wiped out entirely. That’s real, on-the-ground erosion, not spin. Somewhere in a DNC conference room right now, a lot of fingernails are getting chewed, to just above the elbow.
And yet — the generic ballot, traditionally the single most predictive metric for House outcomes, currently shows Democrats up D+7 to D+8, among the largest leads since August 2018, the cycle that produced a 41-seat Democratic wave. FiftyPlusOne’s model gives Democrats an 85% shot at the House and 55% for the Senate, projecting a median of 230 House seats. Sabato’s Crystal Ball, running generic ballot against seats defended, lands in the same neighborhood — Republicans dropping from an effective 230 held seats down to roughly 197 even after accounting for their redistricting gains.
Here’s where I’d pump the brakes on taking any of that generic ballot polling favoring Democrats as gospel, though. Three consecutive election cycles running now, pollsters have over-counted Democratic support on a meaningful scale. In short, I’m not buying it.
Now, whether that’s deliberate thumb-on-the-scale manipulation from people who are trying to create a more leftist friendly reality, or just an industry that can’t figure out how to reach Trump voters who have been harder to gather data from for the last decade, remains an open question. I would suggest it’s a bit of both. What isn’t remotely in dispute is that GOP candidates, Trump-backed ones especially, have repeatedly outperformed what the pollsters promised, leaving a trail of genuinely stunned anchor faces on election night at outlets like CNN and MSNOW, three cycles running.
Want a fresh, local example of the same overcounting problem? Look no further than Francesca Hong’s primary loss in Wisconsin. RealClearPolitics, PPP, and Marquette all had her up somewhere between 18 and 22 points heading into election night. She lost anyway. And that’s before you even get to the part of this story that should really make your eyebrows climb: There’s a live argument right now over whether that outcome involved serious procedural failures, or outright fraud.
I’m well aware some of you are already rolling your eyes at the word “fraud.” Do us both a favor and stow it.
The actual fact on the table is that this marks the third consecutive election cycle that Milwaukee’s central count operation has completely faceplanted, and the polling orgs did exactly the same. One cannot reasonably argue that fraud doesn’t exist without admitting out loud, that there’s serious incompetence that hasn’t been fixed over the last three cycles. Neither option bodes well for the Democrats or the pollsters.
Our own Matt Margolis laid the pattern out plainly yesterday:
“Remember, Florida cleaned up its act after the 2000 recount fiasco and has since become the gold standard for election administration in America. They count elections quickly and accurately.”
Yeah, and wouldn’t you know it — Republicans have been racking up wins in Florida continuously ever since. Funny how that works. Matt drives the point home even harder:
“A system that keeps breaking the same way, in the same city, in favor of the same political machine, and never gets fixed, is functioning exactly as its overseers want it to.”
Three strikes, same city, same machine, same excuses every single time. At what point does “chronic incompetence” stop being the charitable explanation and start looking like a design feature nobody in charge actually wants fixed?
In any event, given the trends, I’d say we’re going to see actual vote totals come November, favoring GOP candidates, that far outstrip what the pollsters are loudly predicting.
Sorry, but the ”GOP“ means little to me. McConnell was GOP. Thune is GOP.
To me, there is Uniparty and MAGA GOP. Trump used to be a ‘Rat. Now, he is MAGA GOP.
Is there such a schism on the Left?
If we can just get our voters to vote!!
If Republicans keep the majority Trump is going to get it turnt up!
Probably appoint Queen Melania to SCOTUS.
I’m ready for 2 more years of TDS sufferers before we get sent to the gulag.
The Dumbkopf Squad of Amerika have laced their evening tea and ar experiencing stronger than usual midnight confessions of of exemplary vote counts, to their favor.
Over a year ago, after Horizontal’s massive defeat, I was told the commies were totally fried extra crispy. No message, no loot, no Horizontal. Done. And now they lead with all this socialist nonsense because it’s the new thing on the block?
I’m not buyin’ it.
If you are not actively supporting Turning Point or Early Vote Action with either your time or your $$ or both, you should call yourself a Democratic Socialist. These organizations are on the ground making things happen.
Oh, let it be so!
Ping
Thank you for posting Little J.
It’s too late now to pass the SAVE Act with any effect on this election.
RINOS and commies have ensured and assured another fraudulent election.
Lord help us if we lose the House and Senate. I pray that Trump’s final two years will clean things up by 2028.
We’re in for a wild ride.
Ping
What’s a little bloodletting among comrades?
“Not if idiot Republicans like John Kasich have anything to say about it.”
Did you know his father was a mailman?😄
“Somewhere in a DNC conference room right now, a lot of fingernails are getting chewed, to just above the elbow.”
LOL! Cute.
“What isn’t remotely in dispute is that GOP candidates, Trump-backed ones especially, have repeatedly outperformed what the pollsters promised, leaving a trail of genuinely stunned anchor faces on election night at outlets like CNN and MSNOW, three cycles running.”
Amen!
“Want a fresh, local example of the same overcounting problem? Look no further than Francesca Hong’s primary loss in Wisconsin. RealClearPolitics, PPP, and Marquette all had her up somewhere between 18 and 22 points heading into election night. She lost anyway.”
Saw it with my own eyes. It was GLORIOUS! Another Socialist smashed! On, Wisconsin! The County Exec of Milwaukee (Crowley, D) should be an easy win for Republicans in Wisconsin for Governor. Local ‘polls’ are showing him UP already by a few points to Team Tom Tiffany (R, WI) but that’s the usual leftist BS we get in this state in EVERY election. Tiffany has 12+ MILLION in the kitty. I don’t think Crowley has even hit a million in funds, yet.
“Not if idiot Republicans like John Kasich have anything to say about it.”
I hadn’t thought about Son of a Postal Worker in a long, long time. If I had seen his photo only, I probably would not have even remembered this loser’s name.
I did not know that. Thank you for letting us know.
I believe that giant cuts via DOGE and foreign aid to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars have cut deeply into the dem party coffers. Their kickbacks are much slimmer.
Multiple left-wing billionaires will swoop in at the last minute to donate hundreds of millions of dollars to elect communists.
Why? The billionaires and even hundreds of millionaires are immunune from taxes if you're communist. Pay the vigorish and join the Club.
We can tell that you’re not a real Trump fan.
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