What Did the Nine-Dash Line Ruling Accomplish? Ten years on, the Philippines is stepping up its defense plans in the South China Sea

Foreign Policy ^ | 08/03/26 | Joseph Rachman

[SeekAndFind]

Sunday saw the 10-year anniversary of the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s ruling against China’s nine-dash line. Fourteen countries reacted by reaffirming the ruling. China, predictably, reacted with saber-rattling.

To recap the case: In 2012, prompted by a standoff at Scarborough Shoal, the Philippines sought international arbitration. China refused to participate in or recognize the process. It went ahead anyway, and the court ruling eviscerated China’s position, ruling its infamous nine-dash line invalid and faulting China on other points.

China still refuses to recognize it and has tightened its grip over the area via salami-slicing gray-zone tactics. But the ruling stands.

A question mark also hangs over whether the ruling did any good. Filipino fishermen who used to visit Scarborough Shoal say they have been steadily driven away by Chinese harassment.

To mark the 10-year anniversary, the Philippines and 13 other countries—including the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, and Australia—issued a joint statement reaffirming an “unwavering commitment to maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific.”

China also banged its usual drum. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared in a statement that China has historic sovereignty to the area, that the ruling is illegal, and the main source of instability is “militarized and coercive behavior” by the U.S. and “other countries.”

More concretely, China also rattled its sabers in the run-up to the anniversary. In June, the People’s Liberation Army deployed bombers, fighter jets, early-warning aircraft, and frigates from its Southern Theater Command to patrol the area around Scarborough Shoal.

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TOPICS: China; Foreign Affairs; Philippines
KEYWORDS: china; philippines

[ComputerGuy]

Not our problem.

[Mister Tee]

If you believe that, then you’re naive about the CCP and its global goals. For god sake, if it’s not JUST the China Sea, it’s Taiwan, it’s the Philippine shoals, it’s India, it’s Japan, it’s US farmland, it’s IP theft... China is finally being challenged by its neighboring countries...led by President Trump.

[stremba]

Yet another example showing that the idea of “international law” is a fiction. International law is whatever the strongest nations say it is. A law without an enforcement mechanism is no law at all.

[SeekAndFind]

China just issued a second statement this week, targeted at Japan 🇯🇵 , invoking World War II and accusing it of “neo-militarism” after Japan’s foreign minister made comments on the anniversary of the ruling.

The Philippines was also disturbed by a recent claim from a Chinese academic that Batanes, a small group of islands that are the Philippines’ northernmost province ( and a very popular tourist spot ), belonged to Taiwan and therefore China. While not yet an official Chinese position, some fear China is testing the waters. If God forbid, China takes over Taiwan 🇹🇼 ( and of course its semiconductor industry, which supplies 3/4 of the world’s advance chips ), the Philippines will be next ( and yep, we still have military bases in the Philippines 🇵🇭 ).

[TStro]

We and our allies should ban all imports from China, stop their flow of money.
They have been making small islands by pouring sand so it comes above the surface to extend their territory.

[libertylover]

If you believe that, then you’re naive about the CCP and its global goals. For god sake, if it’s not JUST the China Sea, it’s Taiwan, it’s the Philippine shoals, it’s India, it’s Japan, it’s US farmland, it’s IP theft... China is finally being challenged by its neighboring countries...led by President Trump.

Well put.

It's also vitally important to keep the Ayatollahs from having nuclear weapons and from controlling the Strait of Hormuz. Also led by President Trump.

[NewJerseyJoe]

>> yep, we still have military bases in the Philippines

Nope. U.S. forces have what's called rotational access to Philippine military facilities under the EDCA - but since the Philippine constitution was amended in the late 1980s, Clark Air Base and Subic Bay Naval Station were closed and handed over to the Philippine government, and there are no more U.S. military bases there.

[SeekAndFind]

Ok, The old U.S. bases (Subic Bay, Clark Air Base) closed in 1991–1992, but since 2014, EDCA has allowed U.S. troops to rotate through nine Philippine military sites, with four new sites added in 2023.

In a ( God forbid ) China–Philippines war, EDCA sites become the U.S. military’s forward operating hubs — but only if the Philippine government requests U.S. assistance, because the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) requires Philippine invocation. I’m certain they will request it.

These sites might not be called U.S. bases, but in wartime they function as launch pads, logistics nodes, surveillance hubs, and air/missile defense positions for U.S. forces.

So, we don’t call them bases, but IN PRACTICE, They are designed to make rapid U.S. intervention physically possible, something that was not possible after the U.S. left Subic and Clark in 1991.

F35s, F-22s, and B-1/B-2 bombers can operate from Philippine airfields. MQ‑9 Reaper drones can conduct ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance).
U.S. aircraft can strike Chinese naval forces threatening Luzon or Palawan. U.S. tankers (KC‑135, KC‑46) can refuel Philippine and U.S. jets.

Sure the EDCS sites cannot be used without Philippine approval. But in wartime, approval would be immediate. In effect, they WILL BE LIKE Military bases.