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Is the Industrial Base on a Wartime Footing? A Progress Report
CSIS ^ | July 6th 2026 | Jerry McGinn and A.J. Dilts

Posted on 07/28/2026 7:59:46 AM PDT by Sir_Humphrey

The Pentagon first outlined the goal of putting the United States industrial base on a “wartime footing”— the condition of being prepared to deter and, if necessary, prevail in a protracted conflict—in November 2025. What steps have government and industry taken since then to make this ambition a reality?

....

Yet industrial plans are not the same as results, and isolated bursts of investment are not the same as institutionalized industrial power. The time scales needed to deliver several critical munitions, for example, depleted after the war in Iran, continue to stretch more than three years. Though investment announcements have risen following China’s export controls in April and October 2025, U.S. and allied efforts to rebuild a secure rare earth ecosystem are in their early stages. While new entrants to the industrial base promise advanced technologies at low cost and high volume, moving defense innovations from concept to contract takes a sustained government demand signal and continued cooperation with private firms. .........

The recent conflict in the Middle East has also revealed the lengthy time horizons that prime defense contractors and their suppliers currently need to build and deliver critical munitions. Reflected in the service branches’ budget justification books, the manufacturing lead time for these weapons ranges from 25 to 51 months.....

Analysis of seven key munitions shows that the United States risks having insufficient stockpiles for future wars.

(Excerpt) Read more at csis.org ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; War
KEYWORDS: 202511; federalspending; industry; iran; nukes; stockpileshortages

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Thank you very much and God bless you.

So much for reducing the deficit let alone the debt.
1 posted on 07/28/2026 7:59:46 AM PDT by Sir_Humphrey
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To: Sir_Humphrey

The real industrial infrastructure is in the education and training of the people. THAT is where a real transformation is in order.


2 posted on 07/28/2026 8:06:41 AM PDT by Carry_Okie (The tree of liberty needs a rope.)
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To: Sir_Humphrey
> So much for reducing the deficit let alone the debt. <

This should be our new national motto:


3 posted on 07/28/2026 8:15:51 AM PDT by Leaning Right
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To: Sir_Humphrey
Not to mention what we get stuck with when the Iran war is over.

Some how, some way, through some “yet-to-be creative”, but bogus method—the US will end up paying for a significant portion of any reconstruction and rebuilding of Iran.,,,,,,i.e. the Marshall Plan.

The official story will be,,,using Iran’s oil money, but we will still be stuck with a lot of it. Count on it happening—we just need a name for it.

4 posted on 07/28/2026 8:19:31 AM PDT by volare737 ( Diversity is something to be overcome, not celebrated. )
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To: Sir_Humphrey
Analysis of seven key munitions shows that the United States risks having insufficient stockpiles for future wars.

Stockpile shortages are one of the reasons why Trump keeps claiming Iran wants to make a deal.

That and the comments by CENTCOM commander that bombing Iraq has lost its effectiveness.

5 posted on 07/28/2026 8:26:23 AM PDT by Responsibility2nd (We've already won. Trump declared Victory. Why are we still there?)
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To: Responsibility2nd
Stockpile Shortages...

 

Screenshot 2026 07 28 10 27 43 AM

6 posted on 07/28/2026 8:29:51 AM PDT by Responsibility2nd (We've already won. Trump declared Victory. Why are we still there?)
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To: Sir_Humphrey
Sir_Humphrey: "So much for reducing the deficit let alone the debt."

You're kidding, right?
In 2026, US defense spending represents around 15% of the Federal budget and about 3% of GDP.
Federal deficits are not caused by defense spending, they're caused by the other 85% of spending.

National defense is the government's first priority, ahead of every other with the possible exception of interest on the national debt.

Eliminating waste, fraud & abuse in $ trillions of other programs would easily pay for necessary defense spending.

7 posted on 07/28/2026 8:37:00 AM PDT by BroJoeK (future DDG 134 -- we remember)
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To: Sir_Humphrey
So much for reducing the deficit let alone the debt.

This graph from the link is very telling. Trump wants a 43% increase in the Defense Budget.

Screenshot 2026 07 28 10 36 47 AM

8 posted on 07/28/2026 8:38:40 AM PDT by Responsibility2nd (We've already won. Trump declared Victory. Why are we still there?)
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To: BroJoeK
Eliminating waste, fraud & abuse...

... the devices by which the rat party funds itself ...

9 posted on 07/28/2026 8:55:19 AM PDT by HIDEK6 (God bless Donald Trump )
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To: BroJoeK

“Federal deficits are not caused by defense spending, they’re caused by the other 85% of spending.”

I thought that before posting I’d look at the responses and yours was better than I’d have put together. The problem is people get this myopic view focused on the military and ignoring everything else. As a low-end landlord I’ve seen some amazing fraud, like the alcoholic woman who was filling the fridge with the most expensive meats and selling them at cents on the dollar to cover beer, cigarettes and pot.

Also, defense, deterrence, is expensive. But not having it is devastatingly expensive.


10 posted on 07/28/2026 9:00:46 AM PDT by Gen.Blather (Oh, gosh! I said that out loud. I'm so sorry.)
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To: Responsibility2nd
That graph doesn't reflect reality. In 1944, war related spending was 37.8% of GDP, which would be almost $9 trillion of the current GDP.

BTW, in 2018 total Federal, state and local government spending reached 37.8% of GDP. We're not far behind Europe in total gov spending.

11 posted on 07/28/2026 9:11:29 AM PDT by pierrem15 ("Massacrez-les, car le seigneur connait les siens" )
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To: Gen.Blather
Also, defense, deterrence, is expensive. But not having it is devastatingly expensive.

And with a good defense, a devasting war remains a low probability high impact event. With poor defense, it becomes a much higher probability.

12 posted on 07/28/2026 9:13:17 AM PDT by pierrem15 ("Massacrez-les, car le seigneur connait les siens" )
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To: pierrem15

In 1944, U.S. federal government spending was roughly 44% of GDP, while national defense/war-related spending was around 37–38% of GDP depending on the accounting measure used. So the 37.8% figure is in the right ballpark for defense-related spending.

If you apply 37.8% to today’s U.S. GDP, which is roughly $30 trillion, the calculation is:

$30 trillion × 0.378 = $11.34 trillion

So $9 trillion is too low if you’re comparing 37.8% with today’s GDP. To get $9 trillion, today’s GDP would have to be about $23.8 trillion.

The important caveat is that “37.8% of GDP” does not mean the government literally spent the equivalent of 37.8% of today’s GDP. It’s a way of expressing the scale of spending relative to the economy at that time. If today’s economy were the same size as the 1944 economy in relative terms, then 37.8% would indeed represent about $11 trillion at a $30 trillion GDP.

For perspective, the U.S. government is nowhere near that level of defense spending as a share of GDP. The World War II peak was an extraordinary mobilization of the American economy. The OMB’s historical tables provide the underlying long-term federal spending and GDP data.


13 posted on 07/28/2026 9:41:24 AM PDT by Responsibility2nd (We've already won. Trump declared Victory. Why are we still there?)
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To: BroJoeK
"You're kidding, right?"

Yeah that was a little tongue in cheek and no, Defense isn't the driver of the deficit. But to put us in a position where we will need to spend more on defense due to this war next year, surely won't help the matter.And yeah, national defense is the top priority of the government but that doesn't mean you don't be judicious with money spent on a war that didn't need to be started. (Oh yeah, 47 years ago blah blah and better to fight them there than here blah blah) You're also overlooking the future "economic aid" we will most likely have to fork over in to help Iran rebuild.

14 posted on 07/28/2026 1:16:33 PM PDT by Sir_Humphrey (I'll support Trump when I think he's right. I'll oppose him when I think he's wrong. As it should be)
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To: Carry_Okie
The real industrial infrastructure is in the education and training of the people. THAT is where a real transformation is in order.

What?? You mean we won't defeat Chinese munitions factories with our overwhelming superiority in app developers and social media influencers?

15 posted on 07/28/2026 2:04:27 PM PDT by EnderWiggin1970
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To: Responsibility2nd; Sir_Humphrey; Gen.Blather
Sorry, sir, but your chart is complete bull-shite.
Your "real dollars" are not, because wars are not waged in "constant dollars", defense is a % of GDP, meaning the national effort required to defend the country, regardless of how you calculate your "real dollars".

This is the real chart -- national defense % of GDP since WWII:

Compare to your BS chart of "real dollars":


16 posted on 07/29/2026 4:24:59 AM PDT by BroJoeK (future DDG 134 -- we remember)
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