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Posted on 05/29/2026 10:03:13 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
There are several reasons to think we won’t see a blue wave in this year’s midterm elections. A basic one is that the Democratic party simply isn’t very popular. In late May, Donald Trump’s approval ratings in the RealClear polling aggregate stood around 40 percent, which sounds bad. Yet Trump is more popular than his party – approval of the Republican brand was in the vicinity of 38 percent. And the Democrats’ ratings were even worse – standing, or one might say wilting, at about 36 percent.
Those figures are not to be confused with “generic ballot” polling, which asks voters which party they would prefer in the forthcoming election. Democrats have lately enjoyed a lead of some seven points over the GOP in that category. Normally a number like that would portend enormous gains for the Democrats in November.
But normal isn’t what it used to be. Four years ago, Joe Biden’s approval ratings were low, prices in the supermarket were high, and Republicans had the edge in the generic ballot. They expected to do very well – but didn’t. The GOP lost a seat in the Senate and won only a thin majority in the House. Republicans had relied on economic conditions to do their campaigning for them.
Democrats misread their own good fortune, however. They assumed it augured well for 2024, which is one reason they were in no hurry to dispose of an already-deteriorating Biden. They were utterly unprepared for Trump’s electoral resurrection.
This year, the Democrats are following the playbook that disappointed Republicans in 2022. Rather than making a case for themselves, they’re hoping Trump’s lackluster approval ratings and the economic impact of the Iran war will defeat the GOP by default. Yet it’s not only the 2022 midterms that suggest these calculations are wrong. In 2020 – not a good year for Trump, to say the least – Republicans actually gained more than a dozen seats in the House. In 2020 and 2022 alike, House races proved less sensitive to the prevailing winds than experts had imagined.
There were no dramatic changes in 2024, either: Republicans lost two House seats, despite Trump’s success in winning every battleground state and a popular-vote plurality. This year, whatever losses the GOP might be set to suffer will be blunted by the mid-decade redistricting that’s added about ten seats to the red column.
Democrats are praying November midterms follow the pattern of 2018’s, which did produce a wave for their party. Their strategy is the same: make the election a referendum on Trump. Democrats may have no strong proposals of their own, and they may enjoy even less public approval than Trump does. But as long as the focus is on him, not them, their own deficiencies will go unnoticed. The party can succeed merely by defining itself as anti-Trump.
Yet that’s not a safe bet, either. The grand narrative that Trump’s opponents don’t think to question assumes that the President’s coalition is splintered and weakened, while anti-Trumpism inspires more passion than ever. Even as Trump-endorsed candidates won primary after primary this spring, his enemies insisted on interpreting the results as signs of weakness rather than strength.
Every victory supposedly meant the MAGA movement was shrinking, as if fewer factions inside a party were obviously a bad thing. This isn’t the tale that’s told whenever any faction the media doesn’t sympathize with gains ground in the Democratic party – or in the GOP, for that matter. And if Trump’s candidates had lost their races, wouldn’t the narrative have been that the President’s grip on his party is slipping and every defeat makes him weaker? The more natural read on Trump’s endorsements is that they are exactly what they appear to be – indications of party unity and party-building success.
On the flipside, however, what about anti-Trump sentiment? Does it seem as passionate as it did in 2018, when the Washington Post was blazoned with the slogan “Democracy dies in darkness”? The Post hasn’t had a change of ownership, but its owner has had a change of heart, or at least judgment: Jeff Bezos has chosen not to define his newspaper as simply anti-Trump. He tried the anti-Trump experiment and found it to be a dead end.
While Bezos may be an unrepresentative figure in many respects, sheer fear and hatred of Trump no longer seem to be the animating forces they were eight years ago, for nearly anyone. The fire just isn’t there –it’s been replaced by acceptance. Trumpism isn’t going away, and anti-Trumpism has become rote rather than fervent. Graham Platner, the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Maine, is a perfect illustration of this.
Platner has many of the qualities the President’s critics claim to find objectionable about him – though Trump, unlike Platner, has never had to alter a purported Nazi tattoo. Platner has, at one time or another, said something to offend almost every group that might consider voting for a Democrat. Yet his outrageousness has not made him a pariah within his party. The Democrats have shifted from trying to present Trump’s words and behavior as politically unacceptable to accepting someone who is far more offensive. They’ve given up – instead of trying to police Trumpism, they’re now trying to ape what they once found highly objectionable.
The Democrats are unpopular, ill-defined and divided. At some point in the not-too-distant future, a culturally leftist variation on populism will probably reshape the party and reorder its priorities as drastically as Trump has changed the GOP. The Republicans certainly are heading into the midterms under conditions highly unfavorable to them. But the party, remade in the image of MAGA, is better adapted to the landscape of the 21st century than the Democrats are.
If Republicans suffer a setback in November, they’ll recover quickly, much as Trump bounced back from the 2020 election. Democrats shouldn’t expect a wave – they should worry about being swept away by the tide.
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Blue wave?
There will be no blue wave.
80/20 politics and the Democrats consistently side with what 20% of the people want.
There are Communists and there are Liberals. The Communists want economic reform and they try to convince ordinary people that goods and services would be more “affordable” if we stomp on the billionaires. Rightly or wrongly, I think this idea could gain traction. But the Democrats don’t have enough real communists.
What the Democrats have in abundance are Liberals. They hate Trump. They support Trans. They support Palestine, Ukraine, Venezuela, Mexico and Iran. They don’t like to be called Karen, but they would like to speak to the Manager. And the vast majority of regular people in this country really hate Liberals.
Well, a blue wave is much more likely than a red wave going forward. For now, the DEMs have locked up too much of the country’s voting system and have too many voters reliant on government for them to lose by a lot.
It’s the economy stupid, is the phrase.
As the expression goes, don’t get cocky kid. We still need to show up.
RE: It’s the economy stupid, is the phrase.
OK, let’s say it is... how will voting for Democrats make it better?
It is the least amount of effort these dolts can put forth to say, “they did something”. Also, government bennies weigh in heavily when the economy is bad for some.
President Trump did not win a plurality of the vote in 2024. He won an outright and clear majority. Subtle lies like this discredit the entire article.
you’re assuming the people who will vote out the republicans are thinking. Nope.
It won't, but to the average idgit out there, they will say "Trump is failing, so let's give the other side a try"
Also, the economy and gas prices is on Trump, so every time they pay the Israel tax at the pump they get more angry and more likely to vote Democrat or stay home to punish Trump for lying.
The left is bats hit crazy. They will not be winning elections outside of leftard locations.
Why government shutdowns are a false fear.
I hope not. Many were making wild accusations in 2018 about how we were gonna pick up 30 or 40 seats. It’s all gonna depend on the economy in October as to how we do in November.
“ how will voting for Democrats make it better?”
It won’t but the dislike for Republicans is at fever pitch. The coalition Trump built in 2024 just is not there anymore. The gains made among Hispanics, Blacks and Young Men have disappeared. Trump’s approval among Young Men has taken an astounding 59% reversal in the wrong direction (according to several polls). President Trump is not on the ballot so typically that equals some of the base staying home to begin with but the other side seems very energized. I get the feeling many Republican government employees in places like Virginia will just not show up to vote at all in November along with a decent number of discouraged 2024 Trump voters.
Just being honest, I don’t see anything breaking in our favor right now. Things could change (e.g. economy, gas prices) but time is running out pretty quickly.
Flagged. Too much logic. That’s what I keep saying to all of these doomers on FR that are mainly complaining about gas prices. The Democrats are on record as thinking gas prices should be higher to encourage EV’s etc.
When it comes to affordability, just look at blue states:
-housing more expensive
-gas higher
-more business closures due to higher minimum wage laws
-more crime
-more homeless
-taxes higher
-climate change policy costs
-Business activity red tape that chokes productivity
But suddenly people are going to support a massive blue wave to put them back in charge? If that happens, you will see some severely disappointed people.
Here’s hoping the blue wave fails to materialize.
The problem with going by party approval or disapproval is that it doesn't inquire as to the reason for the disapproval. There are plenty of people on the left angry at the Democratic party because they think it should be harder left than it is. Kind of like some Republicans are angry at the GOP for not going along with Trump. But in the end, voters who are angry at the Democrats from the left will end up voting for Democrats in the election.
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