Posted on 04/22/2026 6:12:43 PM PDT by JeepersFreepers
Blockade of Hormuz threatens to choke Iran’s trade lifelines and push a fragile economy toward collapse.
Mounting losses, inflation and internal divisions raise doubts over Tehran’s ability to sustain prolonged conflict.
The economic viability of Iran’s resistance is facing an unprecedented existential threat due to the US naval blockade of the strait, which accounts for over 90 percent of Iran’s $109.7 billion in annual trade.
Beyond immediate revenue loss, the blockade creates a catastrophic “storage clock” for Iran’s energy infrastructure. With only about 20 million barrels of spare onshore storage capacity and a surplus production of 1.5 million barrels per day, the nation’s tanks would fill in just 13 days.
Beyond immediate revenue loss, the blockade creates a catastrophic “storage clock” for Iran’s energy infrastructure. With only about 20 million barrels of spare onshore storage capacity and a surplus production of 1.5 million barrels per day, the nation’s tanks would fill in just 13 days.
Once storage tanks fill up, Iran would have no choice but to stop pumping oil from some of its older fields. That might sound temporary, but it can cause lasting damage underground. When production stops, water that naturally sits below the oil can push upward into the well — a problem known as “water coning.” The result is not just a short-term disruption but a permanent loss of output. In Iran’s case, this could wipe out as much as 500,000 barrels per day of future production capacity — equivalent to roughly $15 billion in lost revenue each year that cannot be recovered.
With the rial having cratered to 1.3 million per dollar and food inflation hitting 105 percent as of February 2026, the total loss of foreign exchange earnings leaves the regime with few levers to pull.
“The blockade makes continued resistance economically impossible,” Maleki said.
Sensing Iran will be unable to hold up for long, influential Iranians are calling for compromise.
Dear FRiends,
We need your continuing support to keep FR funded. Your donations are our sole source of funding. No sugar daddies, no advertisers, no paid memberships, no commercial sales, no gimmicks, no tax subsidies. No spam, no pop-ups, no ad trackers.
If you enjoy using FR and agree it's a worthwhile endeavor, please consider making a contribution today:
Click here: to donate by Credit Card
Or here: to donate by PayPal
Or by mail to: Free Republic, LLC - PO Box 9771 - Fresno, CA 93794
Thank you very much and God bless you,
Jim
It from Arab News, a Saudi Arabia newspaper. It appears to be factually based without the obvious bias typical of U.S. mainstream media sources.
Arab News appears to possibly be an excellent site for the most recent war news. (https://www.arabnews.com/middleeast)
The same thing would happen to Kuwaiti and Iraqi oilfields.
Before the Islamic Revolution in 1979, The Iranian rail was relatively steady at around 70 to one U.S. Dollar. Now it is 1.3 million to the dollar!
No matter the destruction to the Iranian economy, the IRGC will never surrender.
It will not bother them if there’s a total and irreversible collapse of the economy and the civil order. Their objective is to survive at all costs, just like Hamas.
That’s why it will be necessary to kill all of them.
One option would be to have tankers fill up at Kharg and sit nearby.
I’m afraid you’re correct.
Excellent point! An extended blockade would have an adverse impact on world oil reserves. The Strait must be opened soon.
“Coning is a rate-sensitive phenomenon generally associated with high producing rates.”
https://onepetro.org/spe/general-information/2279/Water-and-gas-coning
This shows why waiting Iran out via blockade and extended “ peace talks” may do the economic damage necessary to push them to settle…more efficiently and less deadly to civilians than resumed bombing.
The IRGC leadership now down to tier 3-4 or lower…is prob not the wisest decisionmakers to recognize and accept what is happening
📌
The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to most commercial traffic as of April 22, 2026, with only light, high-risk traffic allowed, leaving the waterway functionally closed for most, according to CNBC reports and analysis from the Atlantic Council. Iran re-imposed restrictions after Pres Trump extended a blockade on Iranian ports, leading to continued threats and dangerous conditions for tankers.— PBS
Following a brief, temporary opening, Iran closed the strait again on April 18 in response to the continued U.S. naval blockade. Iranian forces have threatened to target vessels and have engaged in attacks on ships in the area, causing shipping companies to avoid the route.
Only a few ships are passing through, often accompanied by strict, unsafe, and unofficial control by Iranian forces. The closure is causing significant oil supply disruptions and raising insurance rates for ships, with fears of a major long-term energy crisis. —— PBS
Source tracking and details of the crisis are being updated daily.
“That’s why it will be necessary to kill all of them.”
Or to kill enough of them that the Iranian people feel confident enough to kill the rest.
CC
The American South had its cotton exports blocked, but it fought on for four years.
Iran can import essentials from Russia & China. Iran can export small quantities of oil to say Pakistan and China.
Americans making about $200,000/year in metro DC need to understand their incomes are exceptional.
A great article. Thanks.
I think I have to agree with Mariner except that males 14 years and older maturing probably exceeds our ability to kill them. So, when faced with an Iranian leadership meeting the definition of sociopaths by exhibiting patterns of antisocial behaviors and attitudes, including manipulation, deceit, aggression, and lack of empathy for others economic hardship may be irrelevant. Irradicating infrastructure for all but suicide vests may be needed.
SEC. 3. The President in every possible instance shall consult with Congress
before introducing United States Armed Forces into hostilities
or into situations where imminent involvement in hostilities is clearly indicated by the circumstances,
and after every such introduction shall consult regularly with the Congress
until United States Armed Forces are no longer engaged in hostilities or have been removed from such situations.
REPORTING
SEC. 4. (a) In the absence of a declaration of war, in any case in which United States Armed Forces are introduced—
(1) into hostilities or into situations where imminent involvement in hostilities is clearly indicated by the circumstances;
(2) into the territory, airspace or waters of a foreign nation, while equipped for combat, except for deployments which relate
solely to supply, replacement, repair, or training of such forces; or
(3) in numbers which substantially enlarge United States Armed Forces equipped for combat already located in a foreign nation;
the President shall submit within 48 hours to the Speaker of the House of Representatives and to the President pro tempore of the Senate a report, in writing, setting forth—
(A) the circumstances necessitating the introduction of United States Armed Forces;
(B) the constitutional and legislative authority under which such introduction took place; and
(C) the estimated scope and duration of the hostilities or involvement.
(b) Within sixty calendar days after a report is submitted or is required to be submitted pursuant to section 4(a)(1), whichever is earlier,
the President shall terminate any use of United States Armed Forces with respect to which such report was submitted (or required to be submitted),
unless the Congress
(1) has declared war or has enacted a specific authorization for such use of United States Armed Forces,
(2) has extended by law such sixty-day period, or
(3) is physically unable to meet as a result of an armed attack upon the United States.
Such sixty-day period shall be extended for not more than an additional thirty days
if the President determines and certifies to the Congress in writing
that unavoidable military necessity respecting the safety of United States Armed Forces
requires the continued use of such armed forces in the course of bringing about a prompt removal of such forces.
https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/93/hjres542/text
The 62-day clock is running out. Ceasefires don’t slow or stop it.
As with the 150-day tariff, Trump only gets one multi-day period to act under existing law.
“males 14 years and older maturing probably exceeds our ability to kill them.”
The Best and the Brightest & General Westmoreland learned that math.
.
What is the 1979 to 2026 ratio of the Dollar to the Dollar?
I think my main man Trump should rule out “compromise” with the mullahs and just say to the world “we are going to back off and suspend military infrastructure destruction operations for one year”. This is except for the blockade. Maintaining the blockade will suck about 6 trillion out of the Iran economy leaving them dead bang broke for at least half a century.
Meanwhile, all mullahs should be rounded up and eliminated. We hung hundreds of Nazis and Japanese. Time to do the same with some mullahs!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.