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Iran: A Longer View
Americab Greatness ^ | 14 Apr, 2026 | Victor Davis Hanson

Posted on 04/14/2026 4:54:54 AM PDT by MtnClimber

America’s leverage in the Strait exposes Iran’s weakness—turning its greatest asset into a liability and reshaping the balance of power without a ground war.

The prognosis of the Iran War is now so couched in politics and so warped by the American Left that the public has grown tired and wants it all to go away. But in truth, the situation is so fluid that any accurate prediction is impossible. Yet there is good reason to believe in an eventual outcome quite favorable to the U.S. and one far better than the status quo ante bellum.

The Strait of Hormuz

Prior to President Trump’s most recent announcement that the United States would first blockade and then reopen and control traffic through the Strait, only a few ships were going through, mostly those aligned with Iran, opposed to the United States, or neutral.

Thus, the Strait was disrupted to a far greater degree than during Iran’s earlier efforts at closure during the “Tanker War” phase of the Iran–Iraq War, as well as its chronic harassment of shipping in 2018–19. And now?

If Trump quickly clears and secures control of the Strait, and if allowable traffic reaches, say, 60–70 percent of prewar levels and if the U.S. avoids a full-scale war, instead responding disproportionately to any renewed Iranian attempts to close it—then, within one to two months, oil prices will begin to taper off.

The American challenge with the war is not military but political. This time, the U.S. is not sending Marines to fight house to house in Fallujah or to scour villages on the ground in Helmand Province—losing hundreds in casualties and fighting in circumstances favorable to jihadists and terrorists.

(Excerpt) Read more at amgreatness.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Hamas; Hezbollah; Iran; War on Terror; Yemen
KEYWORDS: armchairgeneralsoffr; callingtdscultists; eeyorerepublic; hamas; hezbollah; iran; irgc; pearlclutchingbelow; straitofhormuz; vdh; victordavishanson; waronterror; yemen
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1 posted on 04/14/2026 4:54:54 AM PDT by MtnClimber
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To: texas booster

VDH Ping


2 posted on 04/14/2026 4:55:24 AM PDT by MtnClimber (For photos of scenery, wildlife and climbing, click on my screen name for my FR home page.)
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To: MtnClimber

The Iranians will be America’s partner in the ME if they can be free of their tyranny.


3 posted on 04/14/2026 5:05:27 AM PDT by Jonty30 (I would have been an awesome merchant marine. I can sell convenient store items very well.)
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To: MtnClimber

Leverage. What a beautiful concept, a force multiplier the is far less bloody than the meat grinder that is a feature of “boots on the ground”.

If anything, Trump most forcibly detests actual invasion and demolition of the assets of the adversary, using it only after attempts at negotiation, a sport at which Trump excels, have failed entirely.

Objective - to seize the hearts and minds of the adversary. If those are beyond reach, carpe scrotum, seize the gonads, their hearts and minds will follow.


4 posted on 04/14/2026 5:06:56 AM PDT by alloysteel (The body may betray or fail. The spirit shall endure and prevail. Courage, courage.)
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To: MtnClimber

John Maynard Keynes, who had large gains and losses speculating on the stock market, realized that the economics of an asset don’t determine its price, but the traders’ views of the economics of the assets do.


5 posted on 04/14/2026 5:23:36 AM PDT by larryjohnson (FReepersonaltrainer)
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To: Jonty30
I really have a lot of concern about this war, as the saying goes I've read The Book, and I know the ending. In the final chapter, Iran is a big participant on the bad side. I believe we are living in that final chapter, so I don't see how we can make any change in Iran politically that would change their roll in the final chapter.
6 posted on 04/14/2026 5:40:45 AM PDT by flyover
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To: MtnClimber

“Once the Berlin Wall fell, it took weeks and sometimes months for Eastern Europeans to overthrow their communist oppressors. And it required more than two years after the wall went down for its full effects to ripple out and dissolve the Soviet Union. On that basis, then, no one should expect regime change merely days after the cessation of the war.”

Trump is very busy kicking wasp nests. And it’s likely things will take years to settle out, as VDH says here. I just hope things start looking good very soon, with the mid-terms coming up.


7 posted on 04/14/2026 5:47:08 AM PDT by Twotone (Sometimes I wrestle with my demons. Sometimes we just snuggle.)
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To: MtnClimber
America’s leverage in the Strait exposes Iran’s weakness—turning its greatest asset into a liability and reshaping the balance of power without a ground war.

When China talks, Trump listens.

.

.


"Yes Sir, Mr. XI, I hear you loud and clear. You may proceed" - DJT

8 posted on 04/14/2026 6:07:30 AM PDT by Karl Spooner
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To: Jonty30

Here’s hoping.


9 posted on 04/14/2026 6:24:57 AM PDT by No name given ( Anonymous is who you’ll know me as )
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To: MtnClimber

Mooted as China just drove a fully loaded tanker out this morning.

Were investments in rare earths mineral mines and processing plants in China more valuable than all our spending on the U.S. Navy?

Inquiring minds want to know …


10 posted on 04/14/2026 6:39:05 AM PDT by Uncle Miltie (Groypers: “Low IQ” - PDJT)
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To: texas booster
At any rate, the next time France wishes logistical and intelligence support for its doomed adventures in postcolonial Africa, or a NATO “coalition of the willing” begs the U.S. to lead a “moral” crusade to bomb the ports and communications of Libya or blow up the bridges and power grid of Belgrade, it will be politically impossible in the U.S. to assent.

Kudos to VDH for reminding us that, as much as us Americans hate always meddling in other folks' business, it's often at the request of Europe. Trump has strained relations with our "allies" that always pick a fight with someone and expect us to do the fighting. Something to think about when they fuss at the U.S. over the fight with Iran --- this time we're the ones doing the fighting on a fight that it's in OUR interests.

11 posted on 04/14/2026 7:00:15 AM PDT by Tell It Right (1 Thessalonians 5:21 -- Put everything to the test, hold fast to that which is true.)
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To: MtnClimber

Bkmk


12 posted on 04/14/2026 7:24:19 AM PDT by sauropod
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To: MtnClimber

Article saying oil prices should begin to taper off in 1-2 months....I was hoping sooner than that considering how fast they seem to be going up right now.


13 posted on 04/14/2026 7:34:02 AM PDT by oldtech
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To: MtnClimber

Interesting reference to the Falklands war in 1982. Argentina now is in the hands of a pro-western Trump-like president. He could re-assert ownership of the “Malvinas,” Trump could say as Starmer did, ‘not our war,’ and the UK would be totally unable to contest the issue.


14 posted on 04/14/2026 7:55:04 AM PDT by hinckley buzzard ( Resist the narrative. )
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To: flyover

You interpretation is one among many and very new in the grand scheme of Christendom. Jesus came to save and reigns triumphant even now and called us to make disciples of ALL nations including modern Israel, Iran, North Korea. He also said repeatedly to be more concerned about our OWN faith and our OWN standing with the Lord when he comes back. Didn’t say go and be raptured and take pleasure in gory bloodshed and killing till then. He said Blessed are the peacemakers and to behave like Good Samaritans.


15 posted on 04/14/2026 8:20:28 AM PDT by CondoleezzaProtege
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To: Twotone

At a point in the near future, the Iranian people are going to have to rise up and take control. Unfortunately, I think many of those people were killed earlier this year.


16 posted on 04/14/2026 8:35:43 AM PDT by fini
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To: MtnClimber

FChina until it breaks.


17 posted on 04/14/2026 8:37:22 AM PDT by MrBambaLaMamba (עומד לצד ישראל. The only good commie is one that's dead - Country Joe McDonald )
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To: Twotone

At a point in the near future, the Iranian people are going to have to rise up and take control. Unfortunately, I think many of those people were killed earlier this year.


18 posted on 04/14/2026 8:54:23 AM PDT by fini
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To: MtnClimber

Drop bombs on IRGC commanders.

Airdrop money on the nearest regular army bases.


19 posted on 04/14/2026 11:44:10 AM PDT by Brian Griffin
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To: MtnClimber

Mr. Israeli Submarine Commander:

Here are some Iranian mines we found.

Obviously, they belong to Iran and Iran deserves to have them back.

Don’t get too close to Iranian shores.


20 posted on 04/14/2026 11:44:58 AM PDT by Brian Griffin
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