Posted on 04/14/2026 4:54:54 AM PDT by MtnClimber
America’s leverage in the Strait exposes Iran’s weakness—turning its greatest asset into a liability and reshaping the balance of power without a ground war.
The prognosis of the Iran War is now so couched in politics and so warped by the American Left that the public has grown tired and wants it all to go away. But in truth, the situation is so fluid that any accurate prediction is impossible. Yet there is good reason to believe in an eventual outcome quite favorable to the U.S. and one far better than the status quo ante bellum.
The Strait of Hormuz
Prior to President Trump’s most recent announcement that the United States would first blockade and then reopen and control traffic through the Strait, only a few ships were going through, mostly those aligned with Iran, opposed to the United States, or neutral.
Thus, the Strait was disrupted to a far greater degree than during Iran’s earlier efforts at closure during the “Tanker War” phase of the Iran–Iraq War, as well as its chronic harassment of shipping in 2018–19. And now?
If Trump quickly clears and secures control of the Strait, and if allowable traffic reaches, say, 60–70 percent of prewar levels and if the U.S. avoids a full-scale war, instead responding disproportionately to any renewed Iranian attempts to close it—then, within one to two months, oil prices will begin to taper off.
The American challenge with the war is not military but political. This time, the U.S. is not sending Marines to fight house to house in Fallujah or to scour villages on the ground in Helmand Province—losing hundreds in casualties and fighting in circumstances favorable to jihadists and terrorists.
(Excerpt) Read more at amgreatness.com ...
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VDH Ping
The Iranians will be America’s partner in the ME if they can be free of their tyranny.
Leverage. What a beautiful concept, a force multiplier the is far less bloody than the meat grinder that is a feature of “boots on the ground”.
If anything, Trump most forcibly detests actual invasion and demolition of the assets of the adversary, using it only after attempts at negotiation, a sport at which Trump excels, have failed entirely.
Objective - to seize the hearts and minds of the adversary. If those are beyond reach, carpe scrotum, seize the gonads, their hearts and minds will follow.
John Maynard Keynes, who had large gains and losses speculating on the stock market, realized that the economics of an asset don’t determine its price, but the traders’ views of the economics of the assets do.
“Once the Berlin Wall fell, it took weeks and sometimes months for Eastern Europeans to overthrow their communist oppressors. And it required more than two years after the wall went down for its full effects to ripple out and dissolve the Soviet Union. On that basis, then, no one should expect regime change merely days after the cessation of the war.”
Trump is very busy kicking wasp nests. And it’s likely things will take years to settle out, as VDH says here. I just hope things start looking good very soon, with the mid-terms coming up.
When China talks, Trump listens.
.

.
"Yes Sir, Mr. XI, I hear you loud and clear. You may proceed" - DJT
Here’s hoping.
Mooted as China just drove a fully loaded tanker out this morning.
Were investments in rare earths mineral mines and processing plants in China more valuable than all our spending on the U.S. Navy?
Inquiring minds want to know …
Kudos to VDH for reminding us that, as much as us Americans hate always meddling in other folks' business, it's often at the request of Europe. Trump has strained relations with our "allies" that always pick a fight with someone and expect us to do the fighting. Something to think about when they fuss at the U.S. over the fight with Iran --- this time we're the ones doing the fighting on a fight that it's in OUR interests.
Bkmk
Article saying oil prices should begin to taper off in 1-2 months....I was hoping sooner than that considering how fast they seem to be going up right now.
Interesting reference to the Falklands war in 1982. Argentina now is in the hands of a pro-western Trump-like president. He could re-assert ownership of the “Malvinas,” Trump could say as Starmer did, ‘not our war,’ and the UK would be totally unable to contest the issue.
You interpretation is one among many and very new in the grand scheme of Christendom. Jesus came to save and reigns triumphant even now and called us to make disciples of ALL nations including modern Israel, Iran, North Korea. He also said repeatedly to be more concerned about our OWN faith and our OWN standing with the Lord when he comes back. Didn’t say go and be raptured and take pleasure in gory bloodshed and killing till then. He said Blessed are the peacemakers and to behave like Good Samaritans.
At a point in the near future, the Iranian people are going to have to rise up and take control. Unfortunately, I think many of those people were killed earlier this year.
FChina until it breaks.
At a point in the near future, the Iranian people are going to have to rise up and take control. Unfortunately, I think many of those people were killed earlier this year.
Drop bombs on IRGC commanders.
Airdrop money on the nearest regular army bases.
Mr. Israeli Submarine Commander:
Here are some Iranian mines we found.
Obviously, they belong to Iran and Iran deserves to have them back.
Don’t get too close to Iranian shores.
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