The same Polymarket trader who predicted the start of the Iran war is now betting on a cease-fire by next week

Marketwatch ^ | March 23, 2026 | Gordon Gottsegen

[lasereye]

On Monday morning, President DonaldTrump posted on Truth Social saying the U.S. and Iran had “very good and productive conversations” about resolving the war in the Middle East.

However, before Trump revealed this information publicly, a few accounts on the prediction-market platform Polymarket were making big bets that the war would end as soon as this week.

A group of 10 recently opened accounts had bet thousands of dollars on Polymarket’s “US x Iran cease-fire” market, betting that a cease-fire would happen by March 31 or April 15. Together, these accounts had bet around $160,000 on the cease-fire, and stand to gain over $1 million if it comes by the end of the month.

After Trump’s post on Monday, the prediction-market positions from those 10 accounts had increased by more than $300,000 in unrealized gains.

One of the 10 accounts identified, which trades under the handle “NOTHINGEVERFRICKINGHAPPENS,” also raised some eyebrows. The account was opened in late February, and its first two trades were a $7,600 bet on the U.S. striking Iran by Feb. 28 and a $11,283 bet on a strike by March 1. The account won over $85,000 on those two bets.

Now, that same account is betting $8,005 on a U.S.-Iran cease-fire by March 31, and an additional $15,614 on a cease-fire by April 15. Those two bets have already gained over $30,000 in value.

The size, timing and track record of these bets have some people wondering whether the Polymarket accounts belong to insiders — people with political connections to the U.S. or Iran who know something about the current state of diplomacy that the public has yet to learn about.

A recent example happened when a Polymarket trader made over $400,000 by betting that the U.S. would carry out a military operation in Venezuela.

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TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Iran
KEYWORDS: ceasefire; polymarket

[faithhopecharity]

OF COURSE there’s insider trading

just ask Nancy PeLOUSY

[MotorCityBuck]

“A group of 10 recently opened accounts had bet thousands of dollars on Polymarket’s “US x Iran cease-fire” market, betting that a cease-fire would happen by March 31 or April 15. Together, these accounts had bet around $160,000 on the cease-fire, and stand to gain over $1 million if it comes by the end of the month.”

Very Interesting.

[TexasGator]

Trump said on day one it would last four to six weeks.

[OrangeHoof]

This is news? Maybe Polymarket can tell us who’s winning the basketball tournament. It would be just as accurate.

[faithhopecharity]

Hard to say but 4 to 6 weeks sounds like it was a pretty good estimate

[Nomad577]

Joe Biden had the SEC look into polymarket but Trump had that shut down when he came into office

Donald Trump Jr is a big investor and advisor for polymarket

I don’t know how betting on polymarket could be legal for high up politicians, but I think people have given up caring

[Nomad577]

Also, there was a story about an Israeli military journalist who was receiving bribes and death threats from polymarket betters, to coerce him into changing his accounting of a specific Israeli air strike

It just seems weird you can bet on stuff like that

[ConservativeMind]

It can’t go beyond 60 days without Congressional approval.

[MarlonRando]

boots on the ground— American boots. Beautiful boots. The best.

[Zathras]

I thought it was going to be done in 3 weeks.
Looks closer to 4.

[lasereye]

The CFTC fined Polymarket for some regulatory violations in 2022 and they paid the fines at that time. Trump didn’t shut anything down.

The CFTC under Trump has taken the position that the states can’t ban Polymarket.

Are you saying Trump places bets on Polymarket?

[Nomad577]

No, people have speculated it’s one of his sons though

[lasereye]

Then why did you say that “high politicians” are betting on Polymarket? You don’t have any basis for claiming Trump Jr is either. You seem trollish.

[Bob Wills is still the king]

“Then why did you say that “high politicians” are betting on Polymarket? You don’t have any basis for claiming Trump Jr is either. You seem trollish.”
___________________________________________________________

People here regularly proffer Junior’s name as a successor to DJT. He’s a “player” in politics now, so he doesn’t get a pass for taking advantage of his own inside information.

How much money has the Trump Organization made during Trump’s terms as president?

[lasereye]

My troll alarm is going off VERY loudly.

As I said you have you don’t have any basis for claiming Trump Jr has been making Iran trades on Polymarket - or even trading at all.

Now you have fabricated a second thing top of the first claim: that he had inside information. That’s what pathological lying lefties do. Keep layering one fabrication on top of another.

The hypothetical possibility that he could run in the future is not grounds for saying he’s currently a “high politician” either, even if he eventually does so.

Finally you change the subject to how much the Trump Organization has made. I have no idea but it has nothing to do with trading on Polymarket. Another troll trick.