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Posted on 03/23/2026 8:59:32 AM PDT by lasereye
Stocks rallied Monday after President Donald Trump said the U.S. and Iran have held talks and that he was halting strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure, giving investors hope that the Middle East conflict that spiked oil prices and raised fears of a global recession was nearing an end.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1,117 points, or 2.4%. The S&P 500 rose 2.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.4%. Before Trump’s comments, which he posted on Truth Social on Monday morning, futures were pointing to more losses for equity markets under siege from skyrocketing oil prices and uncertainty about the duration of the Iran conflict. But after Trump’s comments, Dow futures briefly surged more than 1,000 points.
Crude prices dropped after Trump’s post with West Texas Intermediate futures falling more than 11% to around $86 a barrel. International benchmark Brent fell more than 12% to $98 a barrel.
Later Monday morning, Trump said that both Iran and the U.S. wish to “make a deal” and that the two countries are “going to get together today by, probably, phone.”
Stock futures were off their highest levels of the session after Iranian state media said there were no direct talks between the U.S. and Iran.
“Equity markets finally found an off-ramp to the dramatic uncertainty and significantly oversold conditions due to the Iranian conflict,” wrote Jeff Kilburg, founder and CEO of KKM Financial and manager of the Essential 40 Stock ETF (ESN). “If this proves to be a foundation for peace in the Middle East, equities could get back to all-time highs.”
Before Monday’s rebound, the Dow and Nasdaq Composite were each threatening to fall into correction territory — a 10% pullback — with both down around 9.8% from their record levels through Friday. The S&P 500 was off by 7% from its high before Monday’s turnaround.
The Dow and Nasdaq fell around 2% each last week, while the S&P 500 lost 1.5% as the Iran conflict continued to drag down markets. For the Dow, it was the first four-week losing streak since 2023.
“The market has been desperate for any good news, and this appears to be, at least on the surface, the best news we can expect,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management. “If we were able to see any downward pressure on energy prices, the market is like a coiled spring looking for a reason to move higher.”
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Airstrikes killed several high ranking IRGC commanders. It did not cause any disruption in their ability to function apparently. If we have a ceasefire agreement it is a win for them. They will have retained control.
But a ceasefire will be very good for the stock market. We are seeing that today - just based on the possibility of one.
Interesting
I don’t see how Iran steps back into the modern world if the IRGC is still a cohesive force. It’s like getting rid of Hitler but leaving the SS in charge of Germany.
Agreed, fair analogy.
Why is gold moving in the opposite direction?
The non stop bombing continues. the IRGC is making ridiculous demands. I would like too see stepped up bombing for at least another 2 weeks.
Trump expected the Iranian people to take matters into their own hands by now.
When I first checked this morning, regime change was still the word. A few hours pass, and we’re making nice with the regime. How many more 180’s will we do before cob today?
Why in the world would we expect ANY agreement with the IRGC to ever be lived up to by them?
It's not gold that's declining ... it's gold as priced in U.S. dollars that is declining.
“Why is gold moving in the opposite direction?”
Sharp rallies in anything tend to overshoot, then pull back. Also, once everyone is in, there’s no one left to buy. Doesn’t mean the value has changed, just means everyone is already in. Investing is about years, trading is about days.
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P.S. If you refresh on “forum,” regime change is seven threads below this one on FR.
I may have to give up on my recent resolution to actually read stories before commenting. Trump reverses course faster than one can read the last posting.
It’s like that old Woody Allen movie where his character is on a plane with U.S. paratroopers. They’re flying in to intervene in some obscure third world bushwacking war. Half of them are jumping to support side A. The other half are jumping to support side B.
Which side are we on minute to minute? There are probably some very relieved Iranian civilians who are glad they didn’t do a kamikazi charge against the Guard based on the first tweet of the day.
Agreed. Any agreement with any form of the IRGC would carry the same weight as an agreement with Jon Lovitz from an old SNL.
I think Trump is buying time to keep hammering the IRGC because we or the Iranians are not ready yet to take over and get rid of the IRGC arabs.
Keep them guessing. The fog of war!
It seems the Basij picked the right 30,000 people to slaughter back in January. The rest are cowed, and will apparently remain so for the foreseeable future.
“Trump expected the Iranian people to take matters into their own hands by now.”
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I think you’re right. Many thought this would happen.
Maybe seeing 30-40,000 others mowed down, caused them to lose the stomach for it??
They needed weapons!
Those Iranian claims actually make sense. Trump wanted lower crude prices. And Witless-koff and Kushner have been begging him to let them negotiate.
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