Posted on 03/13/2026 9:15:29 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
It's way too early to determine whether or not Operation Roaring Lion's objective of bringing down the Iranian regime will be successful or not, but all those military geniuses who claim that it is impossible are stuck in a paradigm that does not apply.
Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion are unlike anything we have seen in history. That doesn't mean the strategy behind them will work, of course, but it does mean that judging past performance tells you little about future success. It's clear that Israel and the United States have a brilliant, if risky, plan to not just decapitate and disarm the Iranian regime's civilian and military leadership, but also to so demoralize the internal security forces that their will is broken.
https://t.co/Crav9n1uMP
🚨 BASIJ MILITIAS UNDER HEAVY ATTACK ACROSS IRAN
Reports are emerging of multiple new attacks targeting Basij militia units, the street-level enforcers used by Iran’s Islamic regime to police neighbourhoods and suppress dissent.
Several checkpoints and and militia positions are said to have been hit overnight, continuing a pattern of strikes against the regime’s internal security network.The Basij have long served as the front line of the dictatorship’s control on the streets — running checkpoints, monitoring civilians, and crushing protests.
Now those same units appear to be coming under sustained and systematic attack.
If the reports continue to mount, it could signal a serious weakening of the regime’s ability to control the streets inside Iran.
pic.twitter.com/ipO6neEuno— Jim Ferguson (@JimFergusonUK) March 13, 2026
The survival of Saddam Hussein after the Gulf War relied on two important facts: the United States left a significant portion of Iraq's military intact once we achieved our objectives, and we allowed his internal security forces to operate freely, up to the point of allowing Hussein's helicopters to strafe civilians and regime opponents.
It's not just that we didn't enter Baghdad. We implicitly enabled him to retain the monopoly on violence within Iraq's borders, presumably because we didn't want Iraq to become a failed state. "You break it, you own it," as Colin Powell said. Bush and Powell didn't WANT to break Iraq's regime, just its military capability to stay in Kuwait.
The United States and Israel WANT to break Iran's regime, if not own it. From the outset, we have been warning Iran's population to stay indoors and safe, because the time of liberation was not yet at hand.
هممیهنان،
روزهای مهم و سرنوشتسازی در پیش است.
در حالی که خود را برای فاز نهایی مبارزه آماده میکنید، تاکید میکنم که فعلا از حضور در خیابانها خودداری کنید. به مراکز دولتی، نظامی، انتظامی، و خانههای سازمانی وابسته به دستگاه سرکوب، نزدیک نشوید.
جمهوری اسلامی از مدارس، مساجد،… pic.twitter.com/qsnBRX2a8G— Reza Pahlavi (@PahlaviReza) March 12, 2026
Fellow compatriots,
Critical and fateful days lie ahead.
As you prepare yourselves for the final phase of the struggle, I emphasize that for now, you must refrain from taking to the streets. Do not approach government offices, military sites, police stations, or the residences of organizations affiliated with the repressive apparatus.
The Islamic Republic uses schools, mosques, and other public places to conceal its repressive forces and create human shields. For your own safety, stay away from such locations.
And my special message to government employees: Do not show up at your workplaces under any circumstances. Do not sacrifice your lives and safety for the survival of the Islamic Republic. Do not allow yourselves to be used as human shields. Do not let your work and activities become tools for the repression of your fellow compatriots. Use your access and resources to disrupt the repressive process and assist the people.
Long live Iran,
Reza Pahlavi
Obviously, there was always a next phase to the war, after the systematic destruction of the regime's ability to strike outside its borders. But displacing the Iranian regime was a secondary objective to destroying its ability to strike back. And, despite the naysayers in the Democratic Party and the media, who want everybody to believe that Iran will remain militarily strong, it is losing its capacity to defend itself.
The next phase has begun.
A Basij checkpoint has been obliterated. At least ten checkpoints like this were attacked overnight.
• Intelligence suggests Iranian civilians are helping identify checkpoints and regime hideouts.
• The Basij are the regime’s street-level enforcers used to suppress the population.Stay connected, follow @MOSSADil
pic.twitter.com/QfImIcmh7X— Mossad Commentary (@MOSSADil) March 13, 2026
As Democrats declare defeat because the war has taken longer than a week (FFS, man, even the bombing campaign in Iraq lasted 39 days before the tanks started rolling, and that was a smaller battlefield by far), Trump, Hegseth, and Netanyahu have been executing a superb plan to defang both Iran's military and decapitate the regime.
🚨WATCH: A drone attack on a checkpoint of the Basij https://t.co/6pt7z3rZ8O pic.twitter.com/dGVtafy9ub— Raylan Givens (@JewishWarrior13) March 11, 2026
In a sense, the second has happened, at least halfway. It's clear the IRGC is now the ruling faction in Iran, not the "civilian" government. They have installed a dead or dying puppet as a figurehead; one so out of it that he makes Joe Biden look like he was in charge during his "presidency." There is no "Supreme Leader"; there is a military junta.
That junta, and its control of the streets, is the target. And the most vulnerable element is the Basij Militia, which is intimidating Iranian citizens.
WILD: The predicted “future” came within 24 hours. This is Israeli Air Force footage of drones and jets blowing up Basij checkpoints all around Tehran today, based on tips called in by Iranian citizens. A revolution with air support against a regime with no air defence. https://t.co/SZNn3mseMU pic.twitter.com/JRvRNUWZQP— Saul Sadka (@Saul_Sadka) March 13, 2026
In order for the regime to survive, it doesn't just need to control the IRGC, the army (which is not as fanatical as the IRGC and doesn't like its rival), and the Masij; it needs to retain command, control, morale, and supply lines to them. And all of those are at great risk, and growing risk.
Iran’s armed forces are facing acute supply shortages, rising desertions and deepening friction between the regular army (Artesh) and the Revolutionary Guards, according to informed sources who described a military system under growing strain as the war intensifies.…
pic.twitter.com/8vK5XO9V5W— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) March 12, 2026
It's hard to say that the stories of defections or desertions are entirely real, and at least some are likely propaganda, but such things can have a bandwagon effect. We tend to assume that everybody in an extremist regime thinks the same way, but it's quite clear that a lot of people who work in Iran's government apparatus are just...living the best life they can under the circumstances they are given. Which means we have to change their calculus about how to survive and thrive.
A letter from a former IRGC Ground Forces captain who defected from the regime.
“I joined the IRGC twelve years ago because I loved my country. Every day we were told that we were the true defenders of Iran, the shield protecting our borders from foreign enemies and terrorists. For a long time I believed it. I wore that uniform with pride.But eventually it became impossible to ignore the reality of what we were actually protecting. We were not defending the people of Iran. We were defending the bank accounts of our commanders and the survival of a handful of men at the top of power.
My breaking point did not come on a battlefield. It came in the streets of our own cities. When the order came to treat our own brothers and sisters, students, hardworking fathers, and young women who only wanted basic human dignity, as enemies of God and to fire live ammunition into crowds, the illusion collapsed. You cannot look into the eyes of an unarmed twenty year old lying on the asphalt in a pool of blood and still convince yourself that you are on the right side.
I know there are thousands still inside the ranks of the IRGC who feel the same disgust I once felt. They stay because they fear for their families, because of economic pressure, or because the intelligence apparatus watches everyone. But to my former brothers who still wear that uniform, the regime is using you as a wall between its stolen wealth and the anger of the nation. When that wall finally collapses, and it will, they will flee in private jets to places like Caracas or Moscow. You will be the ones left to answer to the people of Iran.
I left everything behind because I could no longer be a jailer in my own home. Now my only hope is that the world hears the voice of the people inside Iran, and that those who still hold weapons lower them from the chests of our youth and finally stand with the people.”
Mehdi, former captain in the IRGC Ground Forces
https://t.co/A11Z2PdFVO pic.twitter.com/Ce3lgEiqGi— The Iran Watcher 🇮🇷 (@TheIranWatcher) March 12, 2026
“I joined the IRGC twelve years ago because I loved my country. Every day we were told that we were the true defenders of Iran, the shield protecting our borders from foreign enemies and terrorists. For a long time I believed it. I wore that uniform with pride.
But eventually it became impossible to ignore the reality of what we were actually protecting. We were not defending the people of Iran. We were defending the bank accounts of our commanders and the survival of a handful of men at the top of power.
My breaking point did not come on a battlefield. It came in the streets of our own cities. When the order came to treat our own brothers and sisters, students, hardworking fathers, and young women who only wanted basic human dignity, as enemies of God and to fire live ammunition into crowds, the illusion collapsed. You cannot look into the eyes of an unarmed twenty year old lying on the asphalt in a pool of blood and still convince yourself that you are on the right side.
I know there are thousands still inside the ranks of the IRGC who feel the same disgust I once felt. They stay because they fear for their families, because of economic pressure, or because the intelligence apparatus watches everyone. But to my former brothers who still wear that uniform, the regime is using you as a wall between its stolen wealth and the anger of the nation. When that wall finally collapses, and it will, they will flee in private jets to places like Caracas or Moscow. You will be the ones left to answer to the people of Iran.
I left everything behind because I could no longer be a jailer in my own home. Now my only hope is that the world hears the voice of the people inside Iran, and that those who still hold weapons lower them from the chests of our youth and finally stand with the people.”
Mehdi, former captain in the IRGC Ground Forces
It is impossible to say that this strategy will work, but comparisons to the bombing campaigns of old probably don't apply. We are not striking the population and building up its will to fight; we are striking at enforcers of a brutal regime that is hated by much of the population and waiting for the opportunity to strike.
We know that because tens of thousands died, and hundreds of thousands more showed their willingness to take risks to take that regime down.
Will the strategy work? It is impossible to say until this is over. It is risky, obviously, but it has a plausible path to success.
All the claims that there is no strategy are bunk. There is. The only real question is whether it will succeed. Because in war, the enemy gets a say.
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It is amazing to watch individual little check point crews being targeted, filmed, and taken out with small explosives, that is a very powerful message to the oppressor forces and to the citizens itching to go into action.
This is why we have the 2A and the Dems want to abolish it.
I agree with Reza.
هممیهنان،
روزهای مهم و سرنوشتسازی در پیش است.
در حالی که خود را برای فاز نهایی مبارزه آماده میکنید، تاکید میکنم که فعلا از حضور در خیابانها خودداری کنید. به مراکز دولتی، نظامی، انتظامی، و خانههای سازمانی وابسته به دستگاه سرکوب، نزدیک نشوید.
جمهوری اسلامی از مدارس، مساجد،… pic.twitter.com/qsnBRX2a8G— Reza Pahlavi (@PahlaviReza
The IRGC are the REAL power in Iran. The Ayatollah and his Mullahs can do nothing if they withdraw their support from the clerics.
It is the IRGC who are firing the missiles and drones as well as mining the Straight of Hormuz.
It is the IRGC who train and support Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen and the terrorists in Iraq and Syria.
It is the IRGC who killed tens of thousands of Iranian protesters.
The IRGC was recruited among strict Iranian religious ideologues to be the trusted praetorian guards of the Mullahs. They are said to be 190,000 strong.
The Iranian professional military, the Artesh, are the non-ideological conscripts who remained neutral during the protests and in fact, helped a lot of those wounded and shot by the IRGC.
If the Artesh eventually decide to side with the Iranian citizens, and fight the IRGC, THAT will be the turning point.
They won't forget it either.
When my wife and I were on our honeymoon in Groesbeek, Holland, we spent a day out on bicycles exploring the glorious countryside. We came across a little bar that was kind of cute, so we went inside. When they found we were on our honeymoon the first drinks were free. This town was a throughway for Operation Market Garden in World War II. Then one of them dug out an American flag with 48 stars, and asked us which one was California. Another showed us a keepsake of the War on his key ring still in his pocket. The proprietor of the bed and breakfast we stayed took us to a nearby graveyard of Canadian dead (his idea) to have us sign the book. Everywhere we went in Holland we met people grateful for what Americans had done to rid them of the Germans (and the Germans we saw invading their towns on the weekend did little to defray their contempt; they were uniformly obnoxious).
I know the Dutch are far more civilized than the Iranians, but please don't think a great many won't remember us fondly if we help them liberate themselves. It's human nature among decent people everywhere.
Now we just need the Mossad/CIA to coordinate some small arms shipments. Perhaps via the Kurds.
CC
IMHO, we need to completely decimate the IRGC via deaths and desertions so that the Iranian people realize they have a chance to take back their country from the Ayatollahs and the IRGC.
At some point in the very near future there is going to be an acute food shortage and the populace will be starving. That is when the show will get interesting.
This is a good strategy. I don’t know if the attacks on the oil refinery makes sense, as even if they do refine, they can’t transport the oil to sell, right? Can wiser minds explain that ti me please?
Let’s also not forget service such as garbage collection, water and sewer service, commerce shut down and banks not operating, grocery stores not being replenished etc. There is going to be a humanitarian crisis shortly and I sincerely hope the administration has taken that into consideration. Because trust me, the media will exploit that dilemma to no end when they get access to the streets of the cities . That will be the next BIG story.
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