Posted on 03/10/2026 8:35:49 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
In the Persian Gulf, 16 miles off the Iranian coast, lies a small island that could be the key to finally sending Iran's theocratic regime into its well-deserved place in the ash heap of history. It's called Kharg Island, and it may well be the small scrap of dry land with the potential to end this whole thing.
Kharg Island is located about 16 miles off the Iranian coast in the Persian Gulf, making it difficult to defend and easier to isolate — reportedly drawing the attention of administration planners.
“Kharg Island handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports. Take it out, and this means cutting off the military budget in addition to pulling the plug on the basic services that keep Iranian society functioning,” said Mohammed Soliman, a senior fellow at the DC-based Middle East Institute.
“Losing Kharg for even a few weeks will create a security and societal crisis in Iran at the same time. Tehran doesn’t get to choose which one to deal with first,” said Soliman.
“The revenue shortfall would run into the billions monthly. You’d see the currency collapse further, inflation spike, subsidies buckle, and this will add more pressure on the country with no quick way to stop the bleeding.”
Here's the catch: This would put a serious squeeze on China, as well, as the Middle Kingdom buys, right now, over 80 percent of Iran's oil output. China, then, may be inclined to get a bit tetchy if we slammed the door on a little more than the same percentage of Iranian oil that China buys.
Still, this is a key logistical position. It may be counter-productive (although easily within our capacity) to just blow everything on the island up. When a new government comes into Iran and starts setting things to rights, as we sure hope happens, they'll need oil revenue - and this island will still be the key to that.
So, why haven't we occupied this island yet?
The island’s economic importance could give Trump leverage, said former administration official John Ullyot, who has served in defense roles including at the National Security Council during Trump’s first term.
JP Morgan cautioned in a Monday statement that “a direct strike [on Kharg Island] would immediately halt the bulk of Iran’s crude exports, likely triggering severe retaliation in the Strait of Hormuz or against regional energy infrastructure.”
Oil shipments from the Persian Gulf have slowed to a trickle since the war started on Feb. 28 — causing wild swings in global trading as Trump attempts to coax ships to traverse the Strait of Hormuz with a new reinsurance program and offers of US military escorts.
The problem isn't that it would halt Iran's bulk crude exports. That would weaken the theocracy, and is worth doing. No, the problem is that it's too close to the Iranian coast.
Read More: Trump: Iran’s Navy ‘On the Bottom of the Sea’ As U.S. Strikes Cripple Military
Oil Prices Surge Then Plunge Amid Optimism Over U.S.-Israel War With Iran Nearing End
Iran still maintains a considerable number of short to intermediate-range missiles and drones. They are expending them at a pretty good clip and can't really replace them, but they still have some - and any American or (maybe more so) Israeli troops on that island would immediately draw fire. As Kharg Island is only about a third as big as Manhattan, there just aren't that many places to hide.
Still, though, this is a key installation, critical to Iran's economy, and it would be amazing if it wasn't on a target list, for the event things start to go south. And here's the fun part: It wouldn't be in the least bit surprising if it's on Iran's target list as well, in the event they decide to go down swinging, and putting any new Iranian government at a disadvantage while doing so.
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Make it like Guam.
Nuke it from orbit. It is the only way to be sure!
So air drop marines, airborne, etc. and give them Combat Air Patrol. Take the island, shut the valves, and collapse Iran’s cash source.
What am I missing?
RE: So air drop marines,
Didn’t Trump say “No Boots on the Ground”?
Throttle the Iranians and put them on an allowance.
Stupid analysis.
“It may be counter-productive (although easily within our capacity) to just blow everything on the island up. When a new government comes into Iran and starts setting things to rights, as we sure hope happens, they’ll need oil revenue - and this island will still be the key to that.”
I don’t know what kind of booger eating moron thinks if we take the island that we can just hold it intact until some new magical government forms, but if we did take it intact, the first thing the Iranians would do is rain missiles on it and destroy everything.
It’s comical to watch the deep strategic thinking coming out of the DC these days.
He didn’t say none never, IIRC.
Iran the country is uninvadable. I recently read that we would need to double or triple the size of our entire army to attempt to take it. So “boots on the ground” as an invasion of the mainland is literally impossible without a massive draft, which ain’t happening, politically.
But one small semi-distant island that collapses the regime? Seems reasonable to me …
So Iran would destroy their only revenue production ability if we took it?
Okay. Go for it, boys.
I’m no military strategist, but if there were a simple cheap way to goad them into it, that’d be fun!
You’re missing two things. What that does to the rest of the world‘s economy, and the fact that it’s 20 miles off their coast. They would rain missiles on it. And it’s probably a near guarantee that they have set charges in strategic places all over it, and could remotely detonate it. It’s a fever swamp dream to think they would let us just take it and hold it intact against someday when a new government gets installed by the west and Tel Aviv.
Oh, and just an interesting aside. The Marine Corps has spent five or six years moving to their new organizational system. They decided amphibious landings are a thing of the past. They got rid of all their tanks, about half of their helicopter fleet, all their combat engineers, and reduced the amount of infantry. The amphibious tractor battalions are cut to the bone and have wed beenit’s the water.
So suddenly we hand an island near the straits that’s a stronghold, and this island further up. Sure, we could drop paratroopers. But nothing approximates the ability of the Marines to land on a beach and move a lot of heavy equipment and supplies ashore quickly.
We should have seized it on day 2. The fact that we haven’t makes me think that there is concern over a precedent that China could exploit with Taiwan. But if so, that concern is misplaced.
No.
Yes, this is a distinct possibility. And we have zero THAAD or other missile defense support we could surround Kharg with once troops are in place. A carrier like Lincoln could do it, but the water is too shallow near Kharg and it would be totally exposed, a death trap.
They don’t seem able to successfully rain missiles on much of anything. They fire a bunch, the vast majority of which get intercepted, and most of the rest poorly targeted hitting not much.
The market for oil is international and is already shut down for all exiting the Straights of Hormuz because of the Iranian threat. Not just Arab oil, but Persian (Kharg) oil too.
Better to starve and defeat Iran so the Arab oil flows at market prices to all, rather than no oil. And Kargh oil doesn’t go to China at a discount.
I hear you, and there is already huge pain, but who is harmed most?
We should consider collapsing Iran with this masterstroke.
Ahhh, some people are catching on!
Jeff Childers brought this up in his substack, Coffee & CoVid, in his Sunday edition. https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/gentlemens-agreements-sunday-march?utm_source=publication-search
Great analysis.
Too many troops and it will tip over?
Yeah, if we seized it, they would likely attack it. And that’s not a good thing. I have a pick up and a 4x4 that I enjoy driving. And nothing kills the economy, faster than spiking oil prices. I realize Tel Aviv does not preside over an energy intensive society, but the rest of the world does and it would hit the economy hard.
I hope right now the autistic people in the world are keeping extremely close watch on who is shorting oil futures. I wondered that the other day when the Israelis blew up all of the oil facilities around Tehran. Maybe wonder what hedge fund in New York had advanced notice and did some shorting. It’s a dirty world we’re in. Mostly, I care about cheap gasoline, and a booming economy here in America. Everything else is a distant second.
It will cause shock waves in oil markets. PDJT does not want oil prices to hike much more.
No, he said no forever wars, which this isn’t and never will be.
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