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Cuba’s Self-Induced Crisis May Be Its Worst Yet {23rd Feb 2026)
Cato insitute ^ | 23rd February 2026 | v

Posted on 02/26/2026 4:39:51 AM PST by Cronos

Cuba’s economy is on the verge of collapsing. True, the standard of living has deteriorated under communism—most notably after the fall of the Soviet Union and the end of the subsidies it provided to the regime, which meant that Cuba’s GDP shrank by half during the 1990s. But this time, the crisis may be worse.

It is hard to collect trustworthy data on the country, as Communist authorities routinely hide or manipulate statistics to conceal the true extent of the country’s crisis from the rest of the world. The regime says the economy declined by 5 percent last year, with an accumulated loss of 15 percent of GDP over the past five years. According to credible experts and observers, however, Cuba is likely facing the worst crisis since at least the start of the Cuban Revolution. Official inflation stood at 14 percent in 2025, but according to private estimates, it may have been as high as 70 percent.

...Daily life for Cubans is just as nightmarish. Recent videos filmed by locals depict an almost empty Havana, as the country’s capital can no longer afford to keep public transportation running.

...The decline of Cuba’s economy is producing mass emigration, even more than in the past. A recent study suggests that up to 1.7 million Cubans fled the country between 2020 and 2024. That study placed the 2024 population of Cuba at 8 million people. For comparison, the 2021 US Census estimated the number of foreign-born Cubans living in the US to be 1.3 million.

...Cuba could run out of fuel reserves by the end of March. It seems unlikely that the regime can just hold on.

(Excerpt) Read more at cato.org ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Cuba; Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS:
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if the regime says that the economy declined by 5% last year and 15% of the population left, we know it is probably closer to a decline of 15% and 30% of the population has left.
1 posted on 02/26/2026 4:39:51 AM PST by Cronos
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To: Cronos

If the Cuban economy is in fact functioning now, how can you possibly tell if it is collapsed?


2 posted on 02/26/2026 4:44:56 AM PST by bert ( (KE. NP. +12) Quid Quid Nominatur Fabricatur)
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To: Cronos

Trump has done the humanitarian thing that needed doing:

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/cuba/article314835809.html

I guess it won’t help with public transportarion, but at least they can gas up their ‘47 Chevys.


3 posted on 02/26/2026 4:49:04 AM PST by CatHerd (Whoever said "all's fair in love and war" probably never participated in either.)
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To: Cronos

Cuba, Venezuela, and Argentina are three countries which have had a bunch of Ups and Downs over many decades. It all depends on how much socialism they have at the moment.


4 posted on 02/26/2026 4:57:41 AM PST by ClearCase_guy
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To: Cronos

The young princelings of the Cuban regime are in quiet discussions with US representatives about how to transition from communism. Otherwise, they face economic collapse and a likely revolt that puts their lives at risk.


5 posted on 02/26/2026 4:58:14 AM PST by Rockingham
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To: Cronos

We’re putting the squeeze on them.


6 posted on 02/26/2026 5:10:19 AM PST by 9YearLurker
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To: Cronos

We still enthusiastically enforce a 60 year old embargo against Cuba for being communist. Why do we allow communism to practically flourish in this country?


7 posted on 02/26/2026 5:14:34 AM PST by bk1000 (Banned from Breitbart)
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To: Cronos

Cuba has a very interesting history.


8 posted on 02/26/2026 5:18:18 AM PST by PGalt (Past Peak Civilization?)
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To: Cronos

You mean Cuber’s economy didn’t improve after Ubama “normalized” relations with Cuber? Intersting.


9 posted on 02/26/2026 5:24:46 AM PST by Texas Eagle (If it wasn't for double-standards, Liberals would have no standards at all. )
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To: PGalt

I’d love to see a big outdoor celebratory concert there with the Miami Sound Machine. Unfortunately Gloria Estefan has put on the weight and isn’t so hot anymore.


10 posted on 02/26/2026 5:27:33 AM PST by DIRTYSECRET
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To: DIRTYSECRET

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CZkjeJKBI0M


11 posted on 02/26/2026 5:34:25 AM PST by PGalt (Past Peak Civilization?)
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To: PGalt

As a kid living on Long Island in the 50’a and early 60’s, many of my neighbors regularly vacationed in Cuba.


12 posted on 02/26/2026 5:43:32 AM PST by surrey
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To: bert
Cuba’s economy is on the verge of collapsing.

It's been collapsed since the early 60's. Who writes this crap?

13 posted on 02/26/2026 5:44:41 AM PST by unixfox (Abolish Slavery, Repeal the 16th Amendment)
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To: surrey

Thanks. It was a nice place to vacation in that era. I’ve been to Jamaica once and Dominican Republic several times. They have some great all-inclusive accommodations.


14 posted on 02/26/2026 5:54:37 AM PST by PGalt (Past Peak Civilization?)
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To: Cronos

Revolutions rarely improve things because they almost always degenerate into dictatorships. Castro, Pappa Doc, Kim, Maduro, the list goes on. It’s so bad in South Africa, they are asking the (Dutch) farmers to come back and run the farms they were evicted from. It seems that Karma eventually replaces the dictator sitting on the throne.


15 posted on 02/26/2026 6:17:08 AM PST by econjack
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To: bk1000

I, personally, have come to the conclusion that America’s embargo of Cuba is really our little deal with the rest of the world. If America traded with Cuba, it would take everything that Cuba had - no cigars for Canada or the UK.

The Communism is an excuse. America trades with China, after all.


16 posted on 02/26/2026 6:19:52 AM PST by Empire_of_Liberty
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To: Cronos

Not to discount the effects of communism on Cuba, but at least one hurricane has made land fall on Cuba since the year 2020.

It is hard for a small country to recover when it is getting devastated continually.

God is punishing Cuba for its governments pride and war on him.

Cuba needs to turn its face to God and repent.


17 posted on 02/26/2026 6:24:48 AM PST by Pontiac (The welfare state must fail because it is contrary to human nature and diminishes the human spirit.)
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To: Pontiac

God is punishing Cuba for its governments pride and war on him.


My theory is they are being punished for turning away the MS St. Louis in 1939.


18 posted on 02/26/2026 6:26:44 AM PST by dfwgator ("I am Charlie Kirk!")
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To: Cronos
A recent study suggests that up to 1.7 million Cubans fled the country between 2020 and 2024.

Are they all fleeing or is the Cuban government sending them our (permitting them to leave) so that they can earn money and send it back to Cuba.

You can bet that many (maybe most) of these Cuban refugees have family in Cuba be held hostage to ensure that they send money back.

19 posted on 02/26/2026 6:29:20 AM PST by Pontiac (The welfare state must fail because it is contrary to human nature and diminishes the human spirit.)
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To: surrey

My parents, from Montclair NJ and Grosse Pointe MI respectively, met on a beach in Havana immediately after the end of WWII.


20 posted on 02/26/2026 8:09:43 AM PST by T. Rustin Noone
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