Posted on 02/19/2026 8:40:01 PM PST by SeekAndFind
The talks are still alive. Just. Iranian and US diplomats, engaging indirectly through Omani intermediaries, have yet to make any substantive progress towards a framework of understanding that governs further talks – as Kafkaesque as that might sound – but they are talking, and that is the best that the diplomats can hope for right now.
What separates Iran and America is a vast chasm between their respective red lines, and beyond that, the very substance of the talks themselves. The US is not willing to countenance an Iran that enriches uranium, has a ballistic missile programme and arms proxies throughout the region.
Iran, for its part, perhaps unwisely – as they may be about to find out, will simply never agree to neuter itself on the above trilogy of capitulations. They prefer to see the talks as narrowly defined discussions on enrichment levels permitted in a state that is a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and nothing more.
The problem Iran has is that Donald Trump is not one for the intricate niceties of Iranian patriotic sentiment. The problem Trump has is that the Iranians know only too well how much he simply wants to get a deal done and to have at the oil and the gas.
Iran would do well, however, not to overestimate Donald’s desire for a deal. Given the distance between the two parties in terms of red lines, not to mention the deep wellsprings of animosity that exist between them, it is perhaps unlikely that we will get a deal in this round of talks in Geneva.
The movement of US military assets to the region within the past 24 hours therefore represents a significant escalation. We have gone from a posture that seeks to use the threat of military action to achieve diplomatic ends to a posture that is poised to strike in the event of a failure to reach a deal.
Iran, given its history with Donald Trump’s use of military force against the regime, cannot afford to call his bluff. This is 19th-century gunboat diplomacy recast for a 21st-century audience. The technologically superior power has simply parked their overwhelming force on the doorstep of their intended target and either waits or strikes until surrender. The last time the British Empire used this tactic in the 19th century against Iran was when all sides fought it out for control over the city of Herat in Western Afghanistan. The Persian court very quickly abandoned their taste for territorial expansion and retreated to the shell of a capital in Tehran as its port cities came under sustained artillery bombardments.
But both sides need an off-ramp, or something akin to ‘success’ that they can sell to their domestic audiences. Donald Trump’s rather rash outbreak of proto-revolutionary fervour, promising that ‘help’ was on its way to the brave Iranian people as they were slaughtered in their thousands in the recent uprisings, was a hostage to fortune. As was his red line regarding the execution of protestors, which continues apace across Iran. Accordingly, many Iranians have lost faith in the US to do what it says it would do, namely, to strike the Islamic Republic’s organs of repression and mass killing and to topple the Islamic Republic.
Likewise, Tehran too needs a diversion from the reckoning that surely must come when the world, and its own people, realise the monstrous scale of the crimes perpetrated against innocent Iranians. And what better way to achieve this than to spread fear and loathing of the US as the ‘real’ enemy? That’s a trick that conveniently allows Ayatollah Khamenei to portray protestors as traitors and therefore justify further repression and death. For in Iran today, the fear of war, massively amplified by Iranian state broadcasts, is real.
And this is why, perhaps, a likely outcome after the inevitable failure of these talks is for the US to launch a series of calibrated strikes. These would be designed to show strength and that it keeps its promises, but not enough to topple the Islamic Republic, which would be permitted to return to the status quo ante, alliances with Russia and China and horrific levels of oppression at home. And perhaps even a renewed attempt to revive nuclear talks, and so on.
As children we are advised not to look gift horses in the mouth. The Islamic Republic is, despite their horror of negotiating with the Great Satan and the undeniable dent this would make on their massive national pride, being offered a lifeline by the United States. Talk to us, and we will take off sanctions, as we did in Syria, and you can go about your business – so runs the message from DC to Tehran. A message that feels distasteful to many Iranians and Israelis, but a message nonetheless that could save the Islamic Republic from itself and potentially revive a regime that has just killed tens of thousands of its own people in the most gruesome manners imaginable. Whether Tehran takes that option or not could determine the fate of millions of Iranians for years to come.
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Death to both the Little and Big Satans!
They're kooky religious fanatics, they hate Israel too much
So you're saying that we're going to war for Israel?
Will Iran completely capitulate to Trump? Not a chance. Not just Trump, but anyone.
It was just a few months ago Trump called them defeated, but based on the support they’ve subsequently gathered from China and Russia, they are stronger now than they were then, and in the last fight they inflicted significant damage on Israel, that wasn’t widely reported.
What they might do, is what Hamas has done in Gaza. Agree to some terms, but not follow through, especially when it comes to de-arming.
The only way to completely resolve this would be to break the will of their allies, which unfortunately, is unlikely at the moment. Having allies is the key to war, not individual strength.
Trump has walked too far out. If he involves the US in another Mideast war, which is opposed by a clear majority of the American people, the Democrats will end up not only taking the Congress in 2026 but quite possibly the Presidency in 2028. The demonic, neo pagan, hedonistic, epicurean, globalist Democrats will control the country. America will suffer greatly and the people will lose their liberties, freedom and material well being. It would be best to leave Iran and its bizarre culture to its own fate.
lol, kooky religious fanatics indeed.
Agreed.
Nuclear weapons are 80 year old technology. Keeping nations from building them is not quite like saying “You can’t build a 1945 Chevrolet!”, but that’s the idea. The technology is old, the process is well known. The don’t even have to be tested at to know they work.
I think the nonproliferation treaty is going to fail before long as technology continues to advance. A better approach is, in my view, is defensive systems to shoot down missiles, and possessing a guaranteed counter strike.
Nope.
All islamists know how to do is hate.
And even *IF* they do agree to take it, they can’t be trusted.
Trump has given some numbers for a timeline for resolution to all this. The military buildup in the Middle East is not for nothing.
As I see it, he’s giving Iran every opportunity to negotiate so when they don’t, he’s justified in his actions.
It might be well worth stocking up on supplies, prepper style.
Speaking of preppers, anyone see anything of Tilted Irish Kilt recently? He’s just dropped off the radar. I hope he’s OK.
Do you think there will be war? When will Trump strike? Will Iran hit back with enough force to put our servicemen in peril? Will Russia or China join the fight? Will Iran manage to hit the US mainland? How will democrats act? Move to impeach Trump as a war monger mad man? Is this the start of WW III? What will Turkey do? So many possible things out there.
I’m very curious about what the regular Iranian army and navy think about all this. I can easily believe the Revolutionary Guard/ Quds Force and Basij will fight, but I’m not so sure the regulars will. I think they might even turn on the others and the mullahs if faced with that option or the one where they have to survive a US attack. The regular populace is cowed now, but if the regular military shows some spine, the people might support them.
China -- supposedly was to be involved in Iran's naval exercise in the Straight of Hormuz -- didn't show up. The Russians, BTW, sent a single corvette.
As far as Iran regaining their strength, China would have had to send HUNDREDS of missile launchers to Iran since the "12 Day War". There is no evidence the Chinese have done so.
In the real world, one in which Israeli operatives have not just disappeared, etc., recovery and securing that recovery (if even possible) by the Iranians would take at least a couple years in even a best case scenario...
The US can potentially also send the USS Bush and it’s strike group. I believe it is presently conducting training exercises “somewhere in the Atlantic Ocean”. It departed our East Coast (Newport) on Jan. 13, following scheduled maintenance.
Curiously, gasoline prices here in the Mid-South are actually back DOWN a few cents...
If negotiations fail, sink their navy.
The next step is up to them...
China buys most of its oil from Iran. We want to reduce China’s power and energy options? Then get Iran out of the hands of the Ayatollahs.
Key here is that Israel without heavy US assistance cannot permanently prevent Iran's ultimate goal of nuclear weapons, which are key to the mullah's ultimate success. (Success as they see it.) It is, in the end, the US that forcibly stands in their way, and in the way of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.
Actually, our 1st step would be ensuring Iran’s Air Defense is useless, and immediately (and to some degree concurrently) we will take out every Iranian missile launcher possible, as that is their prime method of retaliation. After that, we can at our leisure put their entire Navy on the bottom (or in the sky).
Lifeline—or stall until we’re ready?
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