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Posted on 02/08/2026 12:59:51 PM PST by Cronos
Twenty-five years ago, in 2001, the fertility rate stood at 2.38. It has been falling continuously for the past 11 years and has now reached a historic low of 1.48.
Turkey, a friendly country to neighbouring Pakistan, is now heading towards a serious demographic crisis. It is perhaps the only Muslim-majority country in the world where the population is declining rapidly, a trend that is worrying its rulers. According to the Turkish Statistical Institute, Turkey’s total fertility rate is expected to fall to 1.48 children per woman in 2024. This is well below the population replacement level of 2.1.
Twenty-five years ago, in 2001, the fertility rate stood at 2.38. It has been falling continuously for the past 11 years and has now reached a historic low of 1.48.
The sharp decline in birth rates has raised serious concerns within the government. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has described the situation as a “serious threat” and a “catastrophe” for the country’s existence. Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz has warned that Turkey’s so-called “demographic dividend” could end before 2035. Speaking at a Population Policy Board meeting on Wednesday, Yılmaz said the country is now at a “demographic turning point” and that the government views the issue as an existential question—terminology President Erdoğan has long used.
Turkey’s total fertility rate has fallen from 2.08 in 2017 to a projected 1.48 in 2024. This figure is not only far below the 2.1 required to stabilise the population, but also lower than the global average of 2.25. According to Yılmaz, “Turkey ranks fifth in the world among countries with the fastest decline in birth rates over the past ten years.”
The demographic opportunity period refers to a phase when the working-age population significantly exceeds the dependent population, including children and the elderly, thereby accelerating economic growth. However, Yılmaz warned that if current trends continue, this opportunity could end well before 2035.
Rapidly ageing population Although Turkey’s population now exceeds 86 million—making it the most populous country in Europe—the country is ageing rapidly. In 2024, 10.6 per cent of the population was over the age of 65, while in some provinces this figure exceeds 20 per cent. By United Nations standards, Turkey now falls into the category of countries with a “very elderly population”.
Government initiatives In response, President Erdoğan declared 2025 the “Year of the Family” and announced that the period from 2026 to 2035 would be observed as the “Decade of Family and Population”. The government has rolled out several incentives to boost population growth, including a one-time payment of 5,000 lira for the birth of the first child and a monthly allowance for the second child.
Newly married couples are also being offered interest-free loans of up to 150,000 lira, with no repayments required for the first two years. President Erdoğan has repeatedly urged Turkish families to have at least three children to preserve the country’s demographic strength. The government has also announced increases in social housing, maternity benefits, and child support for young families.
Why is the birth rate declining? Experts cite a combination of social and economic factors behind the decline. Economic pressures are the most significant. High inflation, rising housing costs, and job insecurity are discouraging young people from starting families.
In addition, higher education levels among women have led many to prioritise careers over early marriage and childbirth. Urbanisation has also played a role, as families living in cities tend to have fewer children than those in rural areas. Rising living costs and changing social norms have further contributed to the trend. It is also worth noting that countries such as China and Japan are facing similar demographic challenges.
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The best expiation I have heard is that the current zeitgeist holds that we font have an infinite future before us.
Turkey may be Muslim, but it is still quite secular. Turks look down on Arabs and Africans and consider themselves similar to the Europeans.
Therefore, they will copy Western Europe in their views towards “female empowerment,” materialism - and also consumption and debt
We better ship them a few million Mexicans.
Interesting. Turkey is a mix of Western/Islamic.
On the Spanish channel they now show a lot of Turkish shows. I will say, the women are hot, and put ours to shame.
In one word.... Erdogan.
And also on their shows....no poofters.
I worked for a Muslim manager...he never took me up on the offer to buy him a pork tenderloin sandwich for lunch...he was from Turkey.
Turkey has had massive inflation in recent years.
Interesting charts - looks as if the Kurds may be reproducing more than the majority Turk population. Another reason for Erdogan to be on edge.
(And of course, rape of European women usually does not result in pregnancy or does result in an abortion with no benefit to Turkey. )
They need them and Europe should send them back.
They’re having all their kids in Europe and the U.S.A.
Birth rates of Mohammedans in the west are also declining. At the same time, apostasy from Islam is increasing
That may be true. But a nation is not allowed to leave Islam. Only Spain was able to pull it off.
I don’t understand what you are trying to say?
Iran is trying to leave Islam. Look at what the Islamic regime did there.
I'll bet there are not a few Germans who'd be more than willing to help Turkey offset that deficit.
“Why is this happening?”
Because dictatorships of all sorts make a total hash of economics. As my daughter said to the confused gentlemen of the Islamic Sultanate of Brunei Coast Guard, “Your economy sucks. Would you like some Thomas Sowell books? My mom will buy me new ones.”
By the time they finished maneuvers with the first woman sailor they’d ever met, they all wanted to move to Charlotte, where the climate is mild, women have jobs, and (at the time) rents were low. Rents are now insane because everyone moved to Charlotte.
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