Blue States’ Demographic Nightmare

City Journal ^ | Feb 04 2026 | Steven Malanga

[Bobbyvotes]

The Democratic Party has come a long way from 1996, when President Bill Clinton’s reelection campaign declared that America “cannot tolerate illegal immigration” and added, “We continue to firmly oppose welfare benefits for illegal immigrants.”

When we seek explanations for why today’s Democrats refuse to call those here without permission “illegal,” oppose lawful deportations, and seek government benefits for those who’ve snuck into the country, we probably need to look no further than the population woes of Democratic states. At a time when states are governed increasingly by one party or another, the latest migration trends, released last week, show Americans continuing to move heavily away from states with politics dominated by Democrats, and toward Republican locales—significantly shifting population, political power, and economic resources.

---

TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bluestates; demographics

[Bobbyvotes]

The latest data, for the year ending July 1, 2025, show that seven of the top ten states gaining residents from elsewhere in the country are all governed by so-called Republican trifectas, in which the party controls the governorship and both legislative houses—including Texas, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Georgia. The remaining three states in the top ten—North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada—went for Trump in 2024 and have divided governments that lean Republican. Of the 22 states where Republicans control all branches of government, only three lost population to net migration in the last year. In two of those, Mississippi and Nebraska, the net decline was less than 1,000. In all, Republican states gained a net of nearly 345,000 people from other places.

By contrast, Democratic states dominate the list of places with the biggest outflow of residents. Nine of the ten states losing the most population are Democratic, led by California, with a net loss of 229,000 residents, and including New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Illinois. A notable addition to the bottom ten is Colorado—a politically competitive state as recently as 2019 but dominated by Democrats since. Unlike California and New York, which have seen net outmigration for more than a decade, Colorado’s fortunes have only recently turned, but dramatically so, as the state recorded the eighth-highest net loss of residents last fiscal year. Only four of the 15 Democratic trifecta states last year gained residents: Washington, Oregon, Delaware, and Maine. In all, Democratic-led states lost about 495,000 residents to net migration.

The great Scottish Enlightenment thinker Adam Smith once observed that “there is a great deal of ruin in a nation.” Today, you might describe the process as “managed decline.” It’s a feat that many Democratic states are pulling off quite convincingly.

[Bernard]

The Illinois (depression) economic situation has some bright spots;

Illinois leads in abortion tourism, with 23% of all abortions in America done in Illinois,

Experts tell the little people in Illinois that Data Centers are good for you, don't use much electricity, and use less water than agriculture (especially evil cows),

The same experts will also patiently explain that covering rich farm soil with solar panel fields and windmills is the best and highest use of that land.

In a related area, local Facebook groups often explode with posts about how, if only everybody in town would be willing to add an UberEats or DoorDash tip to the $30 price to have a $15 hamburger delivered to your door, the drivers could have a middle-class lifestyle.

All you have to do is be a True Believer.

[woweeitsme]

The only thing I’m hoping is that the people moving into our nice, red states is that they are nice, red people.

[Jewbacca]

They haven’t changed at all.

They were just lying then.

[Bobbyvotes]

First I moved out of Illinois, high property and sales taxes and extreme climate in northern Illinois were the reasons. But on plus side, Chicago had good jobs in manufacturing in those days prior to 1998. Also, restaurants in Chicago were amazing.

Then we moved to CA because wife had a sister there. I could not wait to get out of CA. The taxes in Illinois sounded mild compared to CA. Lasted 13 agonizing months in CA. Climate in central valley is atrocious. Bug heaven.

Next move to WA state in Clark county. It was very nice republican county, mild weather all year round and no state income tax. Ideal place for playing lots of golf.

Now I am happy living in Florida, no snow, low property taxes, no state income tax, convenient boarding a cruise ship without nightmare of flying. Housing is reasonably priced. Must have A/C, summers are hot and humid. Best state to die in since there is no state death tax either.

[1Old Pro]

I think New York State is at the most risk. Weather upstate is terrible 6 months a year and the high state and local property taxes are a significant burden. Add to that a poor job market unless you are a union public school teacher or want to work elsewhere in government. The social welfare roles are bursting at the seams. Wall Street and Madison avenue which provided the life blood for the city can now be done remotely.

It is unsustainable. Unlike MA which actually has a thriving private industry market.

[Sicon]

Nine of the ten states losing the most population are Democratic, led by California, with a net loss of 229,000 residents, and including New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Illinois.

Moved from NJ to GA in June. Couldn't wait to get out of NJ, which in many places, has become almost unrecognizable as a state in the U.S., as the majority of the population in many places is foreign born (almost entirely Mexican, Chinese, Indian, and of course, muslim from various Middle East crapholes), and a good percentage of that is probably illegals.

As for GA, I don't think the state is remotely "purple", if the vote fraud (particularly in Fulton County) can be dealt with.

[spintreebob]

Many of the Democrats moving to GA are becoming independents and open to change, open to voting Republican. But the Republicans seem to do everything possible to make themselves look unattractive.
#1 They fight among themselves over silly things.
#2 They make themselves exclusive and exclude crossovers for silly reasons.
#3 They ignore the existence of reality.
#4 They ignore winning issues. Eg the Republican head of public schools was more anti-school choice than the Democrat.

[Bobbyvotes]

My gut feeling is most are of the Republican brand, but there are also super-rich liberals moving to reduce tax burdens.

[Bobbyvotes]

I have a girl friend from Baxley, GA. When I visit there, I see 9/10 Trump sign boards.

[PermaRag]

Probably not many of the Yankees who are emigrating to Georgia are settling in tiny, rural Appling County. :-)

[Antoninus]

New Jersey leads in outflow, yet NJ’s population is still increasing. Can you figure out why?

[Bobbyvotes]

RIGHT! They are mostly all in Atlanta or Savannah.

[Bernard]

Probably the same reason that the same thing is supposedly happening in Illinois - Americans rent U-Hauls to move their stuff from Illinois, or hire moving companies to move their stuff from Illinois, and the replacements don’t have any stuff so they don’t need a U-Haul or a Mayflower to move any stuff TO Illinois. Just a guess......