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Posted on 01/27/2026 7:51:39 PM PST by Steven Scharf
U.S. Population Growth Slows Due to Historic Decline in Net International Migration
January 27, 2026 Press Release Number: CB26-20
JAN. 27, 2026 — Population growth in the United States has slowed significantly with an increase of only 1.8 million, or 0.5%, between July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025, according to the new Vintage 2025 population estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This was the nation’s slowest population growth since the early period of the COVID-19 pandemic, when the population grew by a historically low 0.2% in 2021. The slowdown also comes after a sizeable uptick of growth in 2024, when the country added 3.2 million people and grew by 1.0%, the fastest annual population growth rate since 2006.
“The slowdown in U.S. population growth is largely due to a historic decline in net international migration, which dropped from 2.7 million to 1.3 million in the period from July 2024 through June 2025,” said Christine Hartley, assistant division chief for Estimates and Projections at the Census Bureau. “With births and deaths remaining relatively stable compared to the prior year, the sharp decline in net international migration is the main reason for the slower growth rate we see today.”
Slower population growth was felt across the country. All four census regions and every state except Montana and West Virginia saw their growth slow, or their decline accelerate.
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Monthly Population Estimates for the United States: April 1, 2020 to December 1, 2025 (NA-EST2024-POP)
Eventaully, the relavant tables will be here.
https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/data/tables.html?text-list-7904832f73%3Atab=2025#text-list-7904832f73
National Highlights Between July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025, the U.S. population grew by 1.8 million (or 0.5%) to reach 341.8 million.
The U.S. population grew at a much slower rate between July 2024 and July 2025 than from 2023 to 2024 (when it increased by 1.0%, or 3.2 million people). The slowdown is largely due to lower levels of net international migration.
Between July 1, 2024, and June 30, 2025, net international migration was 1.3 million, a notable drop from 2.7 million the year before (a decline of 53.8%). If current trends continue, net international migration is projected to be approximately 321,000 by July 2026, representing another decline of nearly 1 million since July 1, 2025. Details are available in the Random Samplings blog, New Population Estimates Show Historic Decline in Net International Migration: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2026/01/historic-decline-in-net-international-migration.html.
Natural change for the nation neared 519,000 between July 1, 2024, and June 30, 2025, roughly the same as the prior year. Although higher than the levels observed during the pandemic earlier this decade, this still represents a significant decline from prior decades. In 2017, natural change was about 1.1 million, and during the 2000-to-2010 decade, it ranged between 1.6 million and 1.9 million.
The fact that they did not drop the actual files is a bit a let down. I have been waiting since December to see this information.
Only 1.8 million huh?
And all that in spite of a declining birthrate
Seems like if things were right the population would be going down
I assume we have some legal immigration.
Net International Migration can sometimes be misleading as it also includes military on other US govt employes going back and forth from overseas.
This is the footnote at the bottom of all of the Annual and Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico files:
2 Net international migration for the United States includes the international migration of both U.S.-born and non-U.S.-born populations. Specifically, it includes: (a) the net international migration of the non-U.S. born, (b) the net migration of U.S. born to and from the United States, (c) the net migration between the United States and Puerto Rico, and (d) the net movement of the Armed Forces population between the United States and overseas.
Awesome news it’s a start
Only 1.8 million huh?
I was surprised also, but this note explains the obvious. Six months before Trump and six months after, plus enforcemnet policies did not kick in immediately.
While the total number of non-U.S.-born immigrants may seem high for 2025 given recent policy changes, the reference period is an estimates year that includes the last six months of 2024 and the first six months of 2025 (as previously discussed). Additionally, there is a lot of momentum in the immigration system and policy changes may take time to have an effect. For example, most of the international students included in the estimates would have entered the United States in Fall 2024 at the start of the academic year.
Wonder what makes MT & WV different?
CAn someone post figure 3 from this page.
Figure 3 shows that the foreign-born population in the CPS declined from 53.3 million in January 2025 to 51.9 million in June 2025, a decline of 1.4 million. While the change in the foreign-born population in a survey over time can imply emigration, it can also reflect survey non-response, coverage error or the impact of population controls.
. . .
Conclusion
Currently, the estimates of NIM are trending toward negative net migration. If those trends continue, it would be the first time the United States has seen net negative migration in more than 50 years.
You were rsponding to this last line.
All four census regions and every state except Montana and West Virginia saw their growth slow, or their decline accelerate.
Probably because they both have very few foreign residents meaning that they saw natural growth unaffected by out international migration.
Yes; this is a good thing.
Middle class birthrates decline because they can’t afford kids. They are taxed to death, having to pay for all of the free stuff given to the illegals and moose limbs, who can afford to breed like rabbits on our dime.
They say it like it’s a bad thing
You make complete sense of course
I seethe in anger at the thought of Biden in my jackass Lying to us saying if we would only pass laws they could enforce immigration or illegals from entry. I have also read the international treaty on refugees it clearly states that they must seek asylum in the 1st state they come to adjacent to their own We aint it When it comes to most of the invaders we have experienced
I’m just sick and tired of seeing our country abused And used as a doormat for the rest of the world
They have taxed and taken from anyone that wants a family, especially men, and told women that they will have a cradle to grave, thumb on the scale advantage, even if you do abort from randos kid.
It would actually help the housing market if we gain less. With less people would help bring prices down so young people buy a house. The 10 to 20 million has made housing slim and help bring interest rates up because of inflation.
It’s a bad thing for one reason. The Muslims are having 7 to 10 children per family. They will come in the future the majority unless the Lord comes first.
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