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Posted on 12/08/2025 10:35:18 AM PST by SeekAndFind
A key inflation measure was lower than expected in September, the Commerce Department said Friday in a report delayed by the government shutdown that gives a further green light for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.
The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, indicated a 0.2% monthly rise while the annual rate was 2.8%.
The monthly rate was in line with the Dow Jones consensus, but the annual level was 0.1 percentage point lower. The core annual rate edged down from 2.9% in August.
In addition, headline PCE increased 0.3% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate also at 2.8%, according to the department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. Both of those readings were in line with expectations though the annual rate was up 0.1 percentage point from August.
Federal Reserve officials use the PCE price index as their primary policy tool for inflation. While officials look at both measures, they generally consider core a better indicator of longer-term inflation trends.
“The slightly stale September inflation report shows that prices remained reasonably stable despite tariffs and healthy consumer spending. This probably provides further air cover for the Fed to cut rates in December,” said Scott Helfstein, Global X’s head of investment strategy.
Goods prices surged 0.5% on the month as President Donald Trump’s tariffs continue to work their way through the economy. Services prices were up just 0.2%. Food rose 0.4% while energy was up 1.7%.
The report also showed the personal savings rate was unchanged from August at 4.7%.
In addition to the inflation figures, the release provided information on income and spending.
Personal income rose 0.4% on the month while spending was up 0.3%. Income was 0.1 percentage point above the forecast, while spending was 0.1 percentage point below the forecast.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
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Economically illiterate MSM response: “Yeah, but prices aren’t GOING DOWN!”
Gosh. The “experts” were so sure that tariffs would cause massive inflation.
HIT job in the title ! That word implies inflation went UP.
The report actually states that the inflation DIPPED a bit more.
RE: HIT job in the title ! That word implies inflation went UP.
The title says “lower than expected,”. How should it be worded?
Prices have not stopped rising. That is not "Economically illiterate". It is a basic observation. But are you gonna believe the government or your own lying eyes?
Yeah. That's what I though too.
Utility rates just went up. Insurance rates went up. Property taxes went up. Grocery stores have all kinds of items "on sale", but the "sale" prices are higher than the regular prices were just two months ago and the packages are 10% smaller.
OK, Gasoline prices have actually fallen and by quite a bit. If you have not been recently laid off, you are seeing a direct improvement in that part of your monthly expenses. Lower energy costs are a reasonable foundation on which to make an economic recovery.
We are not there yet. Corporations are still dumping tens of thousands of white-collar workers and replacement jobs (if any) for these people are paying lower salaries. Advertised jobs for "professionals" have 100 applicants for every posting - and at least 40% of advertised jobs never result in hiring anybody.
The H1-B scam continues to suppress wages in selected fields as American workers are placed in "competition" with third-world indentured servants.
Millions of illegal immigrants are still here, imported during the four years of the Biden administration as a voter base for perpetual Democrat party rule. Democrat officials are still openly protecting them and violating laws to do so.
We all know what corrective measures need to be taken.
There are grounds to be optimistic, but the timeframe for effective measures is limited.
The usual unexpected.
Are we including things like energy, groceries, and gasoline in the CPI now that a Repub is President?
Always have wondered how 0.3% month to month gets called supportive of an annual 2.8% number.
The 2.8% is a year to year measure, but phrasing the monthly number as not suggestive of higher-to-come is pretty absurd.
Who wants to tell them that most prices will never go down?
Our health insurance just leaped from $20 per month for each of us to $200 per month for each of us. A 10X jump!! Not 10%, but 10X. To compound it, the new insurance does not pay for our gym like the old one did, so I’m out of pocket another $40/month!
“The slightly stale September inflation report…..”
What the hell is that?
Core inflation rate watched by Fed ‘FELL TO’ 2.8%, delayed September data shows, replace (lower than expected) with ‘BETTER THAN EXPECTED’.
1. HIT implies inflation increased.
2. (lower than expected) implies a WORSE outcome.
The FED was watching the inflation rate, they expected it to be 2.9%. Instead the inflation rate was even LOWER than expected at 2.8%.
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