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Russian victory would cost Europe twice as much as supporting Ukraine, study finds
The Kyiv Independent ^ | 29NOV2025 | Lucy Pakhnyuk

Posted on 12/03/2025 12:44:41 AM PST by AdmSmith

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Link to the study
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/398136837_Europe's_choice_Military_and_economic_scenarios_for_the_War_in_Ukraine_Corisk_Report_Series_No_12_2025
1 posted on 12/03/2025 12:44:41 AM PST by AdmSmith
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To: AdmSmith

>The Kyiv Independent

LOL


2 posted on 12/03/2025 12:52:41 AM PST by mitchjackson1972
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To: mitchjackson1972

“”1,500-2,500 battle tanks and 2,000-3,000 artillery systems over one or two years... Ukraine will also need up to 8 million drones of all types, air defense, and strategic missile systems.””

A ridiculous fantasy. Europe doesn’t have that to spare, and Ukraine doesn’t have the manpower to use all that stuff. where are they gonna get 1,500 to 2,000 tank crews and 2,000 to 3,000 artillery crews? and the operators for 8 million drones?


3 posted on 12/03/2025 1:56:18 AM PST by rxh4n1
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To: AdmSmith

If this article is intended to get me to work for a Ukrainian victory at any cost, it failed. If anything, it makes me want the Russians to win, so the Europeans are forced to dismantle their welfare states.


4 posted on 12/03/2025 2:11:46 AM PST by Spktyr (Overwhelmingly superior firepower and the willingness to use it is the only proven peace solution.)
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To: AdmSmith

ping


5 posted on 12/03/2025 2:14:31 AM PST by dennisw (There is no limit to human stupidity / )
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To: mitchjackson1972
The study is from a Norwegian think tank and is not of Ukrainian origin. Europe is mostly run by deluded Leftist elites who have wrecked their economies with Green energy fantasies and opened their countries to destructive mass immigration from the Third World.

Europe's elites also indulged in the happy but false assumption that the US would always provide security from Russian aggression. Now Europe is having to calculate the high costs of defense from Russia versus keeping Russia bogged down fighting in Ukraine. Unsurprisingly, the accounting sows that keeping Ukraine in the fight is much cheaper.

This is the fundamental logic of alliances and proxy wars. Does it mean that Europe will do what it takes to keep Ukraine going as an independent nation? Probably not. The most likely course of events seems to be that Ukraine fragments under Russian aggression, but with Russia in continuing economic and military decline.

Five or ten years from now, NATO will be a dead letter, the EU near collapse, and Poland will be Europe's primary military land power. A post-Putin Russia will be begging for sanctions relief and for help keeping China from retaking Vladivostok. Ukrainian resistance to Russia will continue in one form or another.

6 posted on 12/03/2025 2:23:08 AM PST by Rockingham
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To: All

Studies like this always presume infinite supply of more or less anything.

Given the scarcity of neodymium magnets, why would the study presume that all of those drones that run on electric motors could be built regardless of price?


7 posted on 12/03/2025 3:04:55 AM PST by Owen
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To: AdmSmith

I read an article about how sheep should be allowed to graze freely in the forest in the Wolfe Gorging Daily News.


8 posted on 12/03/2025 3:51:16 AM PST by rottweiller_inc (Lupus urbem intravit. Fulminis ictu vultures super turrem exanimat.)
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To: dennisw; AdmSmith
Your "Young Churchill" has been relieved of duty

Good, he's a thief


9 posted on 12/03/2025 3:58:56 AM PST by JonPreston ( ✌ ☮️ )
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It's over


10 posted on 12/03/2025 4:04:02 AM PST by JonPreston ( ✌ ☮️ )
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To: AdmSmith

“1,500-2,500 battle tanks”

Battle tanks as we know them would not survive the Russian equivalent of Javelins.


11 posted on 12/03/2025 4:24:02 AM PST by Brian Griffin
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To: AdmSmith

The source for this article is so funny that the article itself is not worth the time to read it. The title wreaks of propaganda.


12 posted on 12/03/2025 4:27:28 AM PST by redfreedom (They’re AWFUL...Affuent White Female Urban Leftists)
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To: AdmSmith

“8 million drones of all type”

At $2,000 per offensive weapon drone, that would be $16 billion.

That would probably be feasible.

As for Russian drone defense, that would require an anti-drone system about every 500 feet. With front line length of 500 miles, that would be 5,000 anti-drone gun systems. At a cost of $100,000 each, the anti-drone gun systems would run $500 million. Double that to $1 billion for combat losses.


13 posted on 12/03/2025 4:31:46 AM PST by Brian Griffin
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To: AdmSmith

Zelensky needs to visit the Pentagon.

US military planners need to tell him what they would do if they were in the shoes of the Russian brass.


14 posted on 12/03/2025 4:35:01 AM PST by Brian Griffin
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To: Owen

“Given the scarcity of neodymium magnets, why would the study presume that all of those drones that run on electric motors could be built regardless of price?”

There are lots of EVs in Norway.

The Chinese will happily sell EVs to Europe.


15 posted on 12/03/2025 4:36:45 AM PST by Brian Griffin
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To: JonPreston

“territory”

Putin needs to get told that even if he is able to snatch all of Donetsk Oblast militarily, the parts he takes will be in ruins.

Russia will have to pay rebuilding all of built-up parts of Donetsk Oblast it takes in the future.

It’s simpler, easier and cheaper in both rubles and Russian lives to relocate and financially compensate the pro-Russian Federation people in the yet to be conquered areas than to fight on.


16 posted on 12/03/2025 4:42:44 AM PST by Brian Griffin
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To: AdmSmith

Europe could benefit by lower fuel costs with petroleum piped in from Russia.


17 posted on 12/03/2025 4:50:25 AM PST by exPBRrat
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To: AdmSmith

So you’re saying Ukraine has a chance?


18 posted on 12/03/2025 4:52:39 AM PST by McGruff
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To: AdmSmith

“According to the report, such an outcome would amount to a Russian partial victory, giving the Kremlin influence over Ukraine’s political and economic orientation, including EU and NATO membership.”

NATO membership is a ‘Nyet’. Russia will allow EU membership.

“The study further warned that Ukraine could lose half its territory, face long-term political destabilization, and risk democratic backsliding — or even state failure.”

It may lose all its territory if a peace deal can’t be put through.

“Risk democratic backsliding” is built-in to thinking east of the EU and evidently present in the West too. Effective disenfranchisement via people importation is an ongoing process in the West.

“Millions more Ukrainians — an estimated 6 to 11 million — could flee toward Europe, generating 524-952 billion euros ($606 billion - 1.1 trillion) in refugee-related expenses over four years.”

Financial mooching by foreigners has never appeared to seriously worry European leftist leaders in the past.

An influx of Caucasians to the EU may be of great concern.


19 posted on 12/03/2025 4:55:38 AM PST by Brian Griffin
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To: AdmSmith; Brian Griffin
What a fascinating post.

"Could" appears six times in the short text, using a Norwegian 'think tank' as their source, and still "could." Speculation is not news.

One observes that the thread to which you posted so regularly for a couple of years has been pulled. Why could that be?

Attack on Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses..... "Pulled on 12/02/2025 9:17:11 AM PST by Admin Moderator, reason: Pulled"

20 posted on 12/03/2025 5:05:59 AM PST by Worldtraveler once upon a time (Degrow government)
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