Posted on 11/25/2025 11:20:10 AM PST by JeepersFreepers
A new poll of likely Republican primary voters shows U.S. Sen. John Cornyn’s support continuing to decline ahead of the 2026 Texas GOP primary, with Cornyn now falling into third place in a three-way matchup.
The poll, conducted November 21–22 by Stratus Intelligence, surveyed 857 likely Republican primary voters in Texas. It found Attorney General Ken Paxton leading with 36 percent, followed by U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt at 26 percent, and Cornyn at 25 percent. Fourteen percent of voters remain undecided.
Cornyn’s favorability rating has also declined. The survey shows him at 35 percent favorable and 51 percent unfavorable, with 28 percent of respondents holding a “very unfavorable” view of the incumbent senator.
In hypothetical head-to-head matchups, Paxton leads Cornyn 51 percent to 34 percent, while Hunt leads Cornyn 52 percent to 29 percent. The memo accompanying the poll states that Cornyn has spent more than $40 million on advertising and campaign activity this year but that his numbers have not improved.
The polling also explored President Donald Trump’s potential influence. In a scenario where Trump endorses Cornyn, Paxton still leads 44 percent to 41 percent. By contrast, if Trump endorses Hunt, Hunt leads Paxton 51 percent to 31 percent.
The poll was first released by journalist Ben Jacobs, who attributed it to a pro-Hunt super PAC.
The poll memo concludes that Cornyn’s standing with Republican voters has deteriorated throughout the year, and recent advertising has not reversed the trend. According to Stratus Intelligence, the survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
I met Cornyn at the Texas Republican Convention in 2002 when he won his first primary. I didn’t like him then and have not liked him since that time.
Tea Party groups in Texas worked hard to defeat Cornyn in the 2014 primary by supporting a good challenger, Steve Stockman. We got Cornyn’s vote down to 59% in the primary, which is low for an long-term incumbent. Cornyn is strongly supported by the lobbyists and special interests making it hard to get rid of him.
I genuinely hope this is true.
I do not believe it. I’ve seen to many GOP Establishment come out and win in the end with all sorts of snake oil, or the polls were wrong, or other situations.
We do desperately need to get rid of Cornyn. I just don’t want to get blindsided when the Establishment “does it again”.
Paxton has baggage. The blatant and recent adultery should be a red flag of character ...Don't know this Hunt person. Good luck TX!
Not from Louisiana, and the only time I’ve ever gone out of my way to call a Congressman’s office — both in D.C. and their state, was Senator Bill Cassidy. To express ire.
RFK hasn’t been able much of what he set to do, because his appointment to run the CDC (Dr. Dave Weldon) never advanced and that whole situation has been a thorn to the MAHA agenda ever since...Bill Cassidy was the main reason for the blockage...
Please, Louisiana Republicans, primary him ASAP. He’s even more annoying than Murkowski or Collins. May as well be a Dr. Fauci lobbyist.
1. Paxton has been the best A.G. in the country during his tenure in Texas, which goes back to 2015. I wish he was running for a 4th term as A.G. Or Governor.
2. Paxton is the one Republican who could probably lose the Senate seat. And that’s even with the main Democrat contenders being complete idiots and scumbags (Crockett, Allred, Talarico).
Even against Jasmine Crockett?
Do you like the 3rd option?
Paxton.
Come on Texas!
Wesley Hunt seems to be a good man, but a largely unknown one. He had a military career and then went to school and got several Masters degrees. Then he decided to enter politics and (after losing one race in a D+ House district) won in a newly-created R+ district in suburban Houston and has been a solid conservative in the House.
Wesley Hunt election results and ideology ratings
His lifetime conservative rating coming into 2025 was 97%.
It's dropped slightly this year because he voted -- like nearly 100% of Republicans did -- for those big-spending "continuing resolutions" which are anything but conservative. If he is to be a serous candidate he needs to begin raising tons of money, pronto. And hope the 2 better known candidates split the vote. The Texas primary comes very early (March, 2026).
“”””The poll, conducted November 21–22 by Stratus Intelligence, surveyed 857 likely Republican primary voters in Texas.””””
This poll is meaningless.
Texas is an OPEN PRIMARY STATE where Democrats and Independents can vote for their favorite Republican candidate.
The GOP needs to stop this nonsense of having OPEN PRIMARIES.
Open Primaries are why we get squishy RINO’s elected to Federal, State, and Local offices.
I like Hunt. Don’t care for the other two choices.
The Democrat side of the field is so weak that Crockett is just about assured to advance to a runoff. OTOH she could stay in the House, get re-elected (all the crybabying about Republicans abolishing her district is bullshit; she would have another easy place in which to run), and then have even more power when (if) the Rats take over the House in 2026.
But she craves the stature of being a Senator. She is a complete clown and has to be the weakest of the 3 Rats in that race, though. Maybe not weakest in the *primary*, but for sure the weakest in the general.
No matter how it shakes out as far as which candidates face off next November, the result will be similar to 2024 with the winner getting less than 55%. Perhaps less than 53%.
It’s hard to see ANY Texas Democrat pulling in more than 50%, but if anyone can find a way to blow it, the Republicans can.
Do you believe TX will be a swing state - if not Dem-majority at a certain point? (That’s disconcerting!)
Texas is solid red.
Now if we can get rid of Cornyn, and elect Paxton, we’ll be headed down the right road
I believe Paxton is solid
If President Trump were to endorse a candidate they would probably vote against whoever that is.
I would love to see him come in third in the primary. I am not from TX, but I have never liked him.
What a shame.
Hunt was supposed to dilute the voter pool to help Corn-ball win. Looks like he’s actually helping Paxton. LOL.
May all the RINO plans come to confusion.
“Do you believe TX will be a swing state - if not Dem-majority at a certain point? (That’s disconcerting!)”
Of course it will, the only question is when. “Demographics is destiny”, as they say, and Texas is now under 40% White.
The recent past looks wonderful; Democrats haven’t won a statewide election of ANY kind in Texas since 1994. The state legislature seems solidly in Republican control (the state House is — as always — solidly in *RINO* control but the Senate is OK).
But Texas is being constantly invaded from ALL directions, not just from the south. People like to claim, without evidence, that domestic invaders from places like California are actually making Texas “redder”. Anecdotal BS doesn’t count as “evidence”. What does count as evidence is election results.
We’re still winning, but not by nearly as much as before.
From 2000-2014 Texas really was “solid red”, as the results show. It’s not, anymore (as the results also show). The margins of victory are not what they used to be, and likely won’t approach 2000-2014 levels again anytime soon.
Texas is now a lighter shade of “red” than it used to be, whether those with their heads in the sand want to admit it or not. Even the current degree of redness is currently being propped up by the fact that, since Trump came along, many Hispanic voters have moved sharply to the right especially in south Texas (but not so much in the cities like San Antonio, Houston, Dallas, etc.). Texas is over 40% Hispanic, so that movement to the right is extremely important.
If it lasts.
It may not necessarily be a permanent realignment; will they go back to voting a significant majority for Democrats once Trump is gone? We’ll find out someday, like 2028.
“Hunt was supposed to dilute the voter pool to help Corn-ball win.”
Win?
Neither he nor any of the others will get to 50% in March. There will be a runoff.
In a 3-way primary where all candidates are viable to one extent or another, there will be a runoff among the top 2. If Cornyn makes the runoff (wouldn’t that be awesome if he didn’t?) then how does a “spoiler” work in a TWO-WAY race?
It’s not a question of damage — Cornyn is already vastly unpopular, Paxton is already damaged and he is a wet dream for the liberal media with all of his alleged “scandals”, and that leaves Hunt. Of course Hunt’s the underdog — he ain’t got no money (yet) — but I would love to see a Hunt-Paxton runoff, given the fact that there WILL be a runoff.
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