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Posted on 11/22/2025 4:55:35 AM PST by SoConPubbie
Welcome to Friday! This is the Breitbart Business Digest weekly wrap, where we catch up on the economic and finance news of the seven days already lost to history.
This week was one in which mysteries were uncovered. The government got around to unveiling the truth about jobs in September and the mysterious resignation of yet another Fed official. Hiring by restaurants appeared to put to rest fears of a restaurant recession. Anchors aweigh!
The Department of Labor released its once-and-future monthly report on what it calls the “employment situation.” Normally, the jobs report comes out on the first Friday of each month, and it details what businesses and households say about the labor market in the prior month. The latest report was long delayed because of the government shutdown so it came out on the third Thursday of the month and contained jobs data from September. By our count, this makes the report around six weeks and six days late.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
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Economists had forecast that employers added 50,000 workers to payrolls in September. Although that sounds paltry given the sizable monthly gains we’ve seen in recent years, this would have been a sign of healthy jobs growth. The so-called break-even rate of employment growth, the rate required to keep the labor market in balance, has fallen from a peak of around 250,000 in 2023 to about 30,000, according to Anton Cheremukhin, a principal research economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Why so low? Thanks to the Trump administration’s border policies, immigration is no longer adding to the U.S. population authorized to work. The Dallas Fed’s estimate is that net immigration this year will be a subtraction of about 300,000. In other words, flipping net immigration from the Biden tsunami inflow to the Trump outflow has dramatically lowered the pace of employment gains required to keep the labor market healthy. Also, an aging population means that more Americans are retiring out of the workforce, and replacing these retirees doesn’t require an expansion of payrolls.
As it turns out, however, we added far more jobs than required in September. The Department of Labor estimated that the economy added 119,000 jobs, including 97,000 jobs in the private sector. That’s more than twice the estimate and the latest sign that economists continue to underestimate the underlying strength of the economy.
Despite headlines about consumers “buckling” under persistent inflation and depressed consumer sentiment, consumer facing jobs were particularly strong. Retail added 13,900, the third month of accelerating gains since May and the fastest pace of hiring since March. (The numbers are seasonally adjusted, so don’t write this off as hiring for early holiday shopping.) So far this year, retail trade has averaged a gain of 6,200, a dramatic change from the small monthly job loss seen on average in 2024. The total number of people working in retail trade has now returned to its February 2023 peak.
Leisure and hospitality added 47,000 jobs, the third consecutive month of accelerating job growth. Thirty-six thousand of those jobs were in bars and restaurants—”food services and drinking places” in the official jargon—a category that is particularly sensitive to changes in consumer behavior because of the discretionary nature of consumer spending on dining out. What’s more, restaurants and saloons hire when they are swamped with demand, so this growth implies a lot of diners filling tables and barstools.
At some point we should see a drop in jobs held by illegals in restaurants and in construction. But, that won’t mean the jobs are gone. Just the workers.
A realignment with citizens filling those jobs and wages going up should follow.
A good argument NOT to lower rates.
mmmmmmm,, Government shuts down for a month, Illegal Aliens population falls, and MORE people find jobs. Looking forward to the next shutdown in January.
About a month ago, my across the street 31 year old neighbor, married with a two year old, got a new and signifyingly better paying job.
This morning the Lowes truck unloaded a tremendous amount of materials that will I believe be for a new roof.
MAGA is in fact working, apparently pretty well.
Interesting post, thanks.
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