Posted on 07/05/2025 12:18:22 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
Meteorologists knew there was some risk of overnight flooding. Then four months of rainfall came down in only four hours.
Meteorologists had cautioned there was potential for flooding across Central Texas in the overnight hours late Thursday and early Friday morning. But there was little indication of just how torrential and unrelenting the downpours would become in the predawn hours, killing at least 27 people, many of them children at camp.
Radar and precipitation data and National Weather Service warnings show the floods were the result of extraordinary atmospheric conditions that sent intense plumes of Gulf of Mexico moisture into parts of Texas long known to be vulnerable to flash flooding, when bursts of heavy rain cause water to rise rapidly.
And unlike a typical summer thunderstorm that can cause quick flooding, this system formed in a way that allowed it to stall, creating deluges that repeatedly poured several inches of rain on the same areas within a matter of hours.
“The flooding damage is catastrophic,” Kerrville Police Officer Jonathan Lamb told The Washington Post. “It’s the worst flood that we’ve ever seen.”
It occurred against the backdrop of rising global temperatures, as surging fossil fuel emissions trigger the greenhouse effect, causing the most intense rainfall to become even more extreme, scientists say. Warmer air is capable of holding greater amounts of moisture, and with warming bodies of water evaporating more vapor into the air, it is raising the risks of heavy downpours like the ones hitting Texas.
Rain was still falling Saturday, with some storms pouring on the Austin and San Antonio regions at rates exceeding 5 inches per hour, the Weather Service said. North of Austin, authorities were evacuating apartment buildings along the fast-rising San Gabriel River.
Around Kerr County, where many of the deaths are believed...
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Cannot predict this; cannot predict globull warming.
Nuf sed.
Climate change ? More like climate modification warfare.
How come these weather disasters arent happening in blue areas ??
This is a failure of the National Weather Service, NOAA and other federal agencies tasked with weather forecasting, to provide adequate warning. How many countless billions have been spent on fraudulent global warming research instead of better weather radar, better weather modeling and a mobile phone based flood warning system?
The fires that devastated Maui and Pacific Palisades happened in very deep blue states.
I blame volcanoes
Yes, it can be predicted, and the people in the area were warned by the NWS. However, the warnings mean nothing if they are ignored.
Here a a couple of the warnings:
“At 5:34 a.m. local time, a “particularly dangerous situation” warning came for Kerr County: “Automated rain gauges indicate a large and deadly flood wave is moving down the Guadalupe River,” forecasters wrote. “Flash flooding is already occurring.”
“Residents and campers should SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding along the river is expected.”
I blame volcanoes
I had family on Maui
Dominion and the .gov may be blue, but Maui is blood red I assure you.
“ It occurred against the backdrop of rising global temperatures, as surging fossil fuel emissions trigger the greenhouse effect, causing the most intense rainfall to become even more extreme, scientists say”
It happened one day ago. Helicopters are still swirling in SAR
If a campground is operating in a well-defined flash flood area and there’s no one monitoring weather radio around the clock, something isn’t being done right.
.....its the same reason we stood fire watch in antiquated Army barracks.....
Twice an over abundance of caution possibly saved our lives while living and camping in that area of Texas. When the rain got heavy we packed up and went to high ground inconvenience or not. Others that were in the area were not so lucky.
And fire isn’t weather either.
“This is a failure of the National Weather Service, NOAA and other federal agencies tasked with weather forecasting,”
Wrong.
I’m a weather geek.
I just went out and found NWS forecast from 6:35 Thursday night.
They were discussing 5-7 inches of rain possible.
There was flash flooding in the same area back in the 80’s that was as bad or worse.
“The camp, described on its website as “nestled among cypress, live oak and pecan trees ... on the banks of the beautiful Guadalupe River,“
Ithe banks of a major state river are unpredictable. That’s all.
“
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025
Scattered shower activity has been ongoing across South-Central
Texas throughout the late morning and early afternoon, with a
gradual increase in coverage. A substantial plume of deep tropical
moisture continues to stream north across South-Central Texas,
characterized by unseasonably moist precipitable water values as
high as about 2.4 inches. The 12Z Del Rio upper-air sounding this
morning observed a PW of 2.31 inches, which is near daily record
high values. The axis of a negatively tilted mid-level trough most
readily apparent on 700mb analyses is beginning to move poleward
towards the Edwards Plateau, leading to rounds of shower activity
throughout South-Central Texas into tomorrow as the advancing trough
prompts the ascent of moist air. A mesoscale convective vortex over
the Big Bend area has also enhanced moisture advection into our
region.
Observed and simulated vertical profiles show an environment
presently conducive to heavy rain, supporting 1 to 2 inch per hour
rain rates. Given the broad region of rising air and lack of
dominant surface boundaries, shower activity looks to remain widely
distributed across South-Central Texas with sufficient instability
for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Strong gusts of 40
to 50 mph are also possible as the heavy rain rates drag down cooler
air aloft. Cold pools expanding under weak deep-layer flow may
become a focusing mechanism for concentrating a few clusters of
showers and storms as depicted on some of the high-resolution
mesoscale guidance, and the heaviest rain totals may be associated
with these slow-moving clusters. Models remain in disagreement over
the placement of the heaviest rain totals, though the greatest
rainfall potential this afternoon into tonight is over the Highway
90 corridor, southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. Rainfall
totals of 1 to 3 inches appear likely, but locally higher amounts
upwards of 5 to 7 inches could materialize if slow-moving storms
begin to cluster. Given the heavy rainfall potential, some flooding
is possible. A Flood Watch is now in effect through 7 AM Friday
morning for the southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country,
where the intersection of higher forecast rainfall amounts and
rainfall from the past few days is most evident. While the greatest
concentration of modeled precipitation is in the aforementioned
areas, the highest rain amounts could shift depending on where
storms aggregate, and expansion towards the I-35 corridor is
possible later this evening into the overnight as the trough moves
gradually east.”
This region is very prone to flash floods. Thin soil with impermeable rock layer. Rain does not soak in; it all runs off. Also has these sudden severe storms. I forget the exact date, maybe pre WWII. This area received 29 inches rain in one day, similar catastrophic flooding.
WaPo ‘story’, so they feel obliged to include the global warming nonsense.
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