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Whales AND Minnows Swimming to Gold
Von Greyerz ^ | 4 May 26 | Von Greyerz

Posted on 05/06/2025 9:57:19 PM PDT by delta7

Many, from Elliot Wave experts to the dollar-hugging faithful, are asking if we are now reaching a moment of “peak gold”?

The evidence, and answer, is: No.

Our Currency, Our Problem

Gold has made massive price moves in 2025, touching $3500 just days ago and finally making headlines in a politicized world, media and financial system that has otherwise deliberately attempted to ignore and downplay gold for decades.

But can we really blame those silly little “experts” with political incapacities for honesty?

After all, rising gold is proof positive that a debt-soaked nation is in deep trouble, as its currency is no longer trusted, loved, used or wanted.

When the USA abandoned its golden chaperone in 1971 and began spending like a drunken sailor, its Treasury Secretary, John Connally, didn’t seem to care at all that the US had just welched on the rest of the world—a world which once trusted the gold-backed dollar promised to them in the Bretton Woods moment of 1944.

For Connally (as well as Nixon, Kissinger and countless other DC forked-tongues), the new mantra was “our currency your problem” as Uncle Sam enjoyed the “exorbitant privilege” of spending beyond its means, inflating its dollar and then exporting that inflation to the rest of the world via its world reserve currency powers.

But powers can weaken…

Too Broke to Bully

As Uncle Sam now reaches $37T in public debt, the rest of the world, having seen that same bully of a fiat dollar weaponized and indebted beyond rational levels, is no longer as interested as it once was.

In short, for America, it’s now “our dollar, our problem” as the world slowly turns its back on the once hegemonic USA, UST and USD– the distrust and evidence of which is literally everywhere.

Equally evident are the desperate policy reactions from DC to make the dollar hegemonic again—from DOGE headlines and tariff distructions to even the tragic irony of a so-called BTC Strategic Reserve Fund…

In this era of a less trusted and demanded dollar and UST, the backdrop for gold couldn’t be stronger, and the argument for “peak gold” couldn’t be weaker.

Show & Tell

But rather than just tell you this, let us show you this.

Just over a year ago, in March of 2024, gold broke the 13-year baseline of a deep cup and handle formation and then promptly met (and surpassed) its first $3000 statistical target price.

Over the next 6-12 months, the technicals suggest gold hitting its next percentage target of $4000.

Naturally, this does not mean gold only goes in one permanent direction (technically, for example, it could pull-back to a 200-day moving average), but its secular direction North is now obvious at both technical and fundamental levels.

As to those pesky (and far more telling) fundementals, gold will rise for the singular reason that fiat money will continue to fall in the backdrop of the greatest global debt backdrop in the history of capital markets.

…it is literally nothing more than an inverse image of the fiat dollar’s falling direction

When one just looks at gold’s rising direction…

But to any who understand a bit of history and math, this is no surprise.

After all, when a nation gets too in debt, the only real tool left is to inflate that debt away via deliberate currency debasement. Hence the chart above.

And as to this debt reality…

it is THE key driver of every discussion in play today—from inflation/deflation debates, DXY direction, recession denial and stock market risk to precious metal price direction.

The Whales Are Stacking

Such debt and currency dynamics are now fully understood by the global financial whales, which is why central banks have been net stacking gold over USTs since 2014 and nearly tripling their physical gold purchasing since the weaponization of the USD in 2022:

This is also why whales like the BIS declared gold a Tier-1 strategic reserve asset in 2023 and it further explains why the whales have been taking physical delivery of gold OFF the COMEX at record levels since November of 2024.

And when it comes to the BRICS turning their backs on the USD while net-settling trades in gold at the same historical moment that the oil trade is slowly moving away from the petrodollar, the golden writing on the wall could not be clearer.

In short: The whales know that gold is far superior to a bankrupt Uncle Sam’s UST/USD as a future reserve asset.

Such whale purchasing of gold explains gold’s historic price moves of late and further explains why we are years (and thousands of dollars) away from anything at all resembling “peak gold.”

And Now the Minnows Are Catching On

Another key, yet largely ignored factor in confirming the longer-term direction (rather than current “peak”) of gold is that the minnows (i.e. retail markets) have only just begun to see the same writing on the wall of gold’s real use and future price direction.

That is, just as gold made a major technical breakout in March of last year, in March of THIS year, we saw another major breakout which, of course, the media is not covering at all…

Specifically, we just saw gold breaking away from a 10-year base in the classic/traditional 60/40 stock bond portfolio, which is the very bread & butter of consensus-think retail investment (mal) advisory narratives.

Stated otherwise, retail investors are catching on that inflated stocks and bonds aren’t what they used to be and that gold is more than just a pet rock.

The New Safe Haven

This rising retail understanding/move, coupled with the aforementioned “whale” moves in gold, bodes very well for its longer-term price and direction.

Much of this evolving awareness among retail investors hinges upon the devolving role of bonds as a once-sacred “safe haven” from stock market risk.

Even Bloomberg’s experts see the S&P’s fair valuation at below 4000.

In other words, stocks are in a massive bubble.

Buffett knows it. He’s hundreds of billions in cash and the last time we saw a stock market cap to GDP ratio (>200%) this high was in the US of 1929 or the Nikkei of 89.

And we all know how that played out…

But where to hide?

As we saw in 2020, and then again just weeks ago when the VIX surpassed 60 and stocks were falling, bonds were falling as well—which is a major warning of uh-oh.

In fact, we are now in a secular bear market for bonds, something not seen since the mid-1960’s to 1980, which means investors—both minnows and whales—need a better store of value than paper promises from broke(n) sovereigns.

In short, and to repeat: Gold is that new asset and that new direction, and is not even close to peaking.

Instead, gold’s climb is just beginning.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: brics; gold; ntsa

1 posted on 05/06/2025 9:57:19 PM PDT by delta7
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To: delta7

The sky is falling! BUY GOLD! The sky is falling! BUY GOLD!


2 posted on 05/06/2025 10:00:40 PM PDT by Rockingham
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To: Rockingham

The sky is falling! BUY GOLD!
————-
No the sky is not falling, but the world’s currencies are collapsing in purchasing power…..just another cycle, no different than the 1970/80’s, 2008 meltdown etc…Gold is doing what is does for 5,000 years.

The trend is your friend.


3 posted on 05/06/2025 10:08:05 PM PDT by delta7
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To: delta7
Gold as a currency base is not needed in order to maintain fiscal and monetary discipline, nor does having a gold backed currency prevent economic downturns or monetary crises. Moreover, the price and quantity of gold are themselves subject to manipulation and fluctuation. Gold itself has quite limited productive commercial and economic value, does not earn interest, and has holding costs due to the need for security.

On the whole, persons and countries with wealth want to protect and expand it and may see gold holdings as a way to do that, while those looking for economic growth tend to little to no impediment to growth from a requirement for gold backing of currencies. At best, gold is a hedge for those with enough wealth to worry about having a hedge, while most of us prefer things like a better standard of living and earning interest and having equity appreciation in our all too thin savings and investments.

4 posted on 05/06/2025 10:35:40 PM PDT by Rockingham
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To: delta7

Seems like a few years ago it was about $35.00/oz.


5 posted on 05/06/2025 11:07:10 PM PDT by Tom Tetroxide (Psalm 146:3 "Do not trust in princes, in the Son of Man, who has no salvation.")
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To: Tom Tetroxide

I helped my grandfather mine gold as a kid in Colorado. I think it was 32.00 an ounce. Late 60s or very early 70s.
He would never believe where it’s at today.


6 posted on 05/07/2025 12:37:27 AM PDT by 3ZZZ
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To: 3ZZZ

True in the late 60’s gold was about $35 dollars per Troy Ounce.

Since then purchasing power of the dollar has collapsed thanks to printing of paper fiat money to fill the politicians pockets. AKA The Big Guy.

The 100X increase in the price of gold is not that gold has gotten bigger or better it is the loss in purchasing power of paper.

In the 60’s (and I was there) you could buy a family car with a couch of a back seat for about $0.50 per pound today that family “SUV” roller skate cost about $20.00 per pound of paper money.

In gold the car cost about 57 gold coins in the late 60s but now it cost about 11 gold coins.

In other words the $2000 car now requires $40,000 and rising
due to shrinking purchasing power AKA inflation or unlimited printing of money.


7 posted on 05/07/2025 1:19:17 AM PDT by Hang'emAll (Gold is the money of kings, silver=money of gentlemen, barter=money of peasants, debt=slave's money)
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To: NewJerseyJoe

P4L


8 posted on 05/07/2025 1:41:52 AM PDT by NewJerseyJoe (Rat mantra: "Facts are meaningless! You can use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true!")
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To: Rockingham

Is anybody here a Marine metallurgist?


9 posted on 05/07/2025 1:59:03 AM PDT by Larry Lucido (Donate! Don't just post clickbait!)
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To: Hang'emAll

Yep. We couldn’t possess bulk gold back then. After we found some we took it to the Denver mint. Taking us off the gold standard was not a good idea IMHO. I know it allowed for more paper money to be available, but in the long term, it could be our undoing.


10 posted on 05/07/2025 2:09:26 AM PDT by 3ZZZ
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To: Tom Tetroxide

A few years....yeah. Back around 1973.


11 posted on 05/07/2025 4:13:07 AM PDT by Bloody Sam Roberts (Perfection is impossible. But if you pursue perfection...you may achieve excellence.)
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To: Rockingham

Your comments are interesting. I had 3 $50 US (1oz) gold pieces that I bought for about $1100, later sold back for about $1800 each. If they are US gold pieces you don’t have to pay tax on the increase but if they were bars or kugerand or Canadian you did have to pay tax on the increase.

I find it interesting that the ads for buying gold are all, we have this gold that will be worth a lot and you have money that will be worthless, so send us your money and we’ll send you our gold.

I could never figure out what I’d do with the gold, as far as I know none of the retailers take gold for their products. So in the long run it seems you have to still convert your gold into money to buy stuff. In the event of a financial collapse what would be valued, gold? Silver? Other stuff like batteries, toilet paper or goods that can be used daily?


12 posted on 05/07/2025 5:08:08 AM PDT by Dad was my hero
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To: Dad was my hero

That’s why I wouldn’t put a lot of my investments in metals. You do good as long as there is a boom (like there is now), but in the end we all die and you can’t eat gold. I do own some silver.


13 posted on 05/07/2025 7:11:47 AM PDT by BipolarBob (AA told me to quit hanging around drunks. So I quit going to AA, cuz that's where they were.)
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To: Dad was my hero

You answered your own question. Gold simply allows you to become your own bank. Much can be said for being “ out of the system”.

You do go to the bank and withdraw cash to buy items….with Gold, you go to a coin shop, jeweler, bullion dealer, etc and simply exchange your Gold for ever decreasing in value USD’s.

Storing your wealth in Gold is same, same but without risk…risk of currency devaluation, bank failure, inflation, counter party risk….the fact it now takes 3,392 US dollars to buy an ounce of Gold is very telling as to what happens to all currencies, all the time.


14 posted on 05/07/2025 7:11:49 AM PDT by delta7
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To: BipolarBob

but in the end we all die and you can’t eat gold.
————
You can’t eat paper dollars either, nor Bitcoins. Storing your dollars in a bank account ( electrons on a screen) is much less preferable than storing your Gold ( wealth) in hand….been that way for thousands of years.


15 posted on 05/07/2025 7:18:29 AM PDT by delta7
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To: Dad was my hero

In extremis, if paper currency is scorned, gold would be less valued than practical things of immediate use like food and fuel, guns and ammo, medical supplies, toilet paper, and clothes and shoes. Junk silver US coins would be more useful than gold.


16 posted on 05/07/2025 8:17:11 AM PDT by Rockingham
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To: delta7

“Storing your wealth in Gold is same, same but without risk…”

How much is a floater policy on $1 million of gold coins stored in the mattress?


17 posted on 05/07/2025 8:26:09 AM PDT by TexasGator (11111111.1'11.'11/'~~'111./.)
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To: delta7
"You can’t eat paper dollars either, nor Bitcoins. Storing your dollars in a bank account ( electrons on a screen) is much less preferable than storing your Gold ( wealth) in hand….been that way for thousands of years."

Bull Eats Gold Ornaments Thrown Out With Garbage By Haryana FamilyAccording to the family, the gold was thrown into the garbage by mistake and the cow ate it.


18 posted on 05/07/2025 8:29:15 AM PDT by TexasGator (11111111.1'11.'11/'~~'111./.)
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