Posted on 01/19/2025 8:15:48 PM PST by SeekAndFind
We don’t like to be killjoys, but is anyone else paying attention to the huge spike in commodity prices over the past two months?
The CPI is back at 3% according to the latest government report, and investors cheered that it wasn’t worse. But we feel confident in predicting it’s going to get worse quickly.
In just the past two weeks, commodities like gold, silver, oil, and corn have spurted by more than 5% – coincident with the ongoing Biden spending spree in the first three months of fy2025. Oil hit $78 a barrel, which will mean $3 or $3.50 a gallon in a town near you.
Just another mess Trump is inheriting from Biden.
We’re surprised some on Wall Street believe the Fed will continue to lower rates later this year. Perhaps investors understand that Trump’s supply side energy, tax, and regulatory policies will bring prices down. But for the short term, inflation is headed in the wrong direction.
We hope we are wrong.
Joe Biden
Ag prices are very low, farm economy is in a recession
Aren’t eggs part of “ag”? Egg prices are still through the roof.
Still “Cooking The Books”: Hiding Bidenflation, but now that Trump is taking over, they can report closer to the truth, to make him look bad..
Tomorrow night, the media will start reporting about how bad the economy is and it is all Trump’s fault.
yep
Get ready for worse. I heard on the radio a couple of hours ago that "Bird Flu' has hit in Georgia, and they are going to 'have to destroy' millions more chickens.
AKA “Truth about inflation can finally be told!”
USDA lab sponsored bird flu.
Damn Trumpinomics....oh! 🤔😊👍
Bird flu is causing egg prices increased
Oil and food are non core. They will be separated out. It was core inflation that generated the applause last week.
Inflation gets to be its ugliest from indexing. This was the issue back in the 1980 timeframe. Labor contracts indexed pay to CPI. It was an amplification. If labor costs go up, everything goes up.
Social Security and Federal pay is indexed. Private pay is not, but a decade or two of habit has generated a norm of informally indexing.
Volker spiked interest rates at that time to huge levels to try to smash the power of indexing. Some say it worked. There is no proof.
The bad news is you can go back through historical inflation and find occasions of spikes or troughs entirely uncorrelated to inflation.
Money is created from nothingness by the Fed. There is no reason a substance created from nothingness should have to obey any “laws” of a pseudo science like economics.
Are bad times a comin’? Depends on if you think $37T in debt, also made up of a substance that came from nothingness, matters.
ack . . . “ entirely uncorrelated to interest rates.”
Official reports are going to be dire for the first two quarters. Reality will settle in pretty quickly, and things will sort out because most people will be hopeful and see light at the end of the tunnel.
Something that cannot be fixed by an EO.
No matter how brilliantly Trump handles the overall economy it will take time to sort out the mess.
No doubt the “Press” will suddenly find it essential to report every little hiccup along the way to prosperity.
America needs REAL statistics, not politically manipulated ones. This is as important as DOGE. I hope Trump is paying attention to this.
inflation, jobs, unemployment, health care, covid, violent crime, rape, etc, etc.
ALL of our Fed.gov agencies have played games with these statistics for political purposes.
This is one reason it is critical the DOGE has a major impact on government expenses fast. Fire tens of thousands of bureacrats, shut down unconstitutional programs, audit everything and clamp down on excessive spending. This will shift buying power back into the hands of citizens and reduce competition for goods/services while move large numbers of workers (the bureaucrats and those in their employ at the behest of the old autocracy) into actual gainful employment producing things that people actually want.
It’s the insurance prices that are nuts. I’ve noticed there are cars for sale in every neighborhood where I live. People that used to have 3 or 4 cars and a boat and jet ski are selling their toys. During the Great Depression, the grand pianos went first.
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