Inconvenient truths about the fires burning in Los Angeles from two fire experts

Los Angeles Times / Yahoo! ^ | January 11, 2025 | Thomas Curwen

[ProtectOurFreedom]

Not quite six years ago, wildfire expert Jack Cohen, who lives in Missoula, Mont., visited Pacific Palisades to instruct firefighters and property owners on how to protect homes against wildfires.

Three days of training, including a tour of the community, left Cohen hopeful, but the feeling faded when it became clear that his lessons were not going to be fully implemented. This week’s tragedy has left him with a deep sadness.

Respected by fire agencies across the country, Cohen and Pyne have found their straight-talk admonitions often disregarded or dismissed. Sensitive to losses and suffering, both said they are motivated by the belief that magnitude of destruction this week in Los Angeles and Altadena is not a foregone conclusion.

While Pyne focuses on our cultural relationship with fire, Cohen looks at fire from a scientific perspective. Both suggest that we have more control over fire disasters than we think, and both begin by redefining the problem.

When catastrophic fires occur, experts often blame the so-called wildland-urban interface, the vulnerable region on the perimeter of cities and suburbs where an abundance of vegetation in rugged terrain is susceptible to burning.

Yet the fire disasters that we’re seeing today are less wildland fires than urban fires, Cohen said. Shifting this understanding could lead to more effective prevention strategies.

“The assumption is continually made that it's the big flames" that cause widespread community destruction, he said, “and yet the wildfire actually only initiates community ignitions largely with lofted burning embers.”

Experts attribute widespread devastation to wind-driven embers igniting spot fires two to three miles ahead of the established fire. Maps of the Eaton fire show seemingly random ignitions across Altadena.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

A bit more...it's a windy article and I've condensed and extracted key points...

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“When you study the destruction in Pacific Palisades and Altadena, note what didn't burn — unconsumed tree canopies adjacent to totally destroyed homes. The sequence of destruction is commonly assumed to occur in some kind of organized spreading flame front — a tsunami of super-heated gases — but it doesn't happen that way.”

“In high-density development, scattered burning homes spread to their neighbors and so on. Ignitions downwind and across streets are typically from showers of burning embers from burning structures.” This fundamental misunderstanding has likewise led to a misunderstanding of prevention

[After the Chicago 1871 fire and the San Francisco 1906 fire] “cities began to harden themselves against these terrible conflagrations and were successful. Yet those defenses lapsed as the cities grew. Building codes failed to address the requirements of specific environments, and infrastructure was laid out without attending to potential hazard.

Pyne...argues that many of the most disastrous fires of the last 30 years have been urban fires.

The 1961 Bel-Air fire [484 homes destroyed] and the 1978 Mandeville Canyon fire (230 homes destroyed) are often cited for the scale of their destruction, but the 1991 Tunnel fire in the Oakland and Berkeley Hills marked the start of the modern era of urban fires, destroying 2,843 homes.

The most uncomfortable truth of the last four days has been how quickly firefighting efforts were overwhelmed and outmatched by the extreme fire conditions, Cohen said. L.A. County Fire Chief Anthony Marrone acknowledged there was simply not enough manpower for this emergency.

“We're not recognizing, analyzing, questioning how we're failing,” Cohen said. “We just think we need more airplanes and more helicopters flying 24 hours a day.” More CL-415 super-scoopers or Firehawk helicopters will not help when water is being dropped into 60 mph wind gusts.

“We don't necessarily need a trillion-dollar program and a fire czar to get control of the fire problem,” Pyne said. “What we need are a thousand things that tweak the environment in favorable ways such that we can prevent these eruptions.”

For example, municipal and fire prevention agencies must give property owners advance — and continual — warnings to clear dead vegetation and to wet dry brush within 10 feet of the house with periodic, prolonged sprinklings.

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So here we are, back to "clear the brush away from your house and give your landscape periodic waterings." and "burning embers ignite new fires downwind from the main fire." The fact that huge conflagrations send burning embers one to three miles ahead of the fire igniting new spot fires has been known for 100 or more years!

Pyne said “We don't necessarily need a trillion-dollar program and a fire czar to get control of the fire problem.” The LAFD budget is nearly $1 billion. OK, we don't need a TRILLION dollar program. But would buying $1 billion of equipment help? Would a $5 billion per year budget make sense and be optimal?

Given the $200 BILLION (or higher) losses this week, such expenditures would make a LOT of sense. They could be easily be funded by ending or greatly scaling back all of the following California crap...

• Woke DEI - $1 BILLION per year (my SWAG)
• Illegals - $31 BILLION per year (American Federation for American Immigration Reform)
• Homeless bums - $4 BILLION per year (CNN)
• CA High Speed Train - $100 to $200 billion, with estimated $2 BILLION per year in maintenance (

Yesterday, another FReeper (I forgot who) posted a link to this LAFD video made in 1962 which analyzed the 1961 Bel Air fire. All of these things were discussed in the video 63 years ago!

LAFD: "Design For Disaster" - The Story of the Bel Air Conflagration | 1962

[rdcbn1]

In the Great Chicago Fire it was Mrs O’Leary’s cow that was responsible for the fire.

In LA it's the sum total of the Democrats corrupt DEI and woke cash cow agenda that is responsible

[AZJeep]

but the 1991 Tunnel fire in the Oakland and Berkeley Hills marked the start of the modern era of urban fires, destroying 2,843 homes.
_________________________

I remember that fire, because some friends house, I spend few days couple years before, was affected (only stone stairs remined).
The reason was a heavy eucalyptus tree cover. The whole place looked like dense eucalyptus forest with houses hiding in there. These trees grow fast, but burn fast too.
Afterwards, the whole hills were cleaned of all vegetation and (almost) all houses.

Actually quite different from Palisades, where the trees seem to remind.

[Tom Tetroxide]

Here’s something from Scott Adams...

I need a fact-check on my current assumptions about rebuilding after the fire:

1. It can take years to get anything approved in normal times in California. The backlog from the fire could push it out a decade.

2. The cost of building a custom home in California is roughly double the market value of the home when done.

3. The new home will get a property tax step-up to become unaffordable for anyone who owned the original home for a decade or more.

4. The fire risk will return once everything regrows, and insurance companies will not come back. Here I assume continued state incompetence.

5. There are not enough qualified builders to rebuild.

6. Owners would be rebuilding in the midst of unchecked and growing crime.
https://x.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1877714432333324573

[ProtectOurFreedom]

From what I’ve read the past few years, the “Mrs O’Leary’s cow” theory was a government coverup for their incompetence. Some things never change.

[tinamina]

I saw on X several times today a blurb talking about the smart meters, which have lithium components and that they direct the fire throughout the inside of the house through the wiring. I don’t know if it’s a real thing, but it sounds like it could be feasible.

[cgbg]

On number two I know on my home insurance policy it is a fixed dollar amount for total replacement cost.

If I want to raise that number I need to request it and pay more for the increased coverage.

What we don’t know is what those replacement cost figures look like for the destroyed CA homes with insurance.

That could be the difference between “fully insured” and a financial “sell the land and walk away” disaster.

[MayflowerMadam]

“talking about the smart meters, which have lithium components”

What are smart meters? Those Alexis things? Something else?

[ProtectOurFreedom]

As you know, eucalyptus is a non-native invasive species from Australia. The demand for lumber in California was enormous after the Gold Rush. The snowsheds on the transcontinental rail line through the Sierras alone used 300 MILLION board feet of lumber and 10% to 15% of that was required for annual maintenance. Construction was going on all over California. Deforestation had become a serious concern in the mid 1800s, so much so that the California Tree Culture Act of 1868 was created to encourage people to plant more trees,

By the early 1900s, many aspiring forest tycoons planted countless acres of eucalyptus in hopes of selling the timber for a profit. It’s estimated that there were over 100 companies involved in the eucalyptus industry at this time, and they changed the landscape of much of California.

Frank C. Havens. Havens was an Oakland developer who opened a mill and planted eight million eucalyptus trees in a 14-mile-long strip from Berkeley through Oakland> But when he came to sell the timber, it was found that the trees were too young to make suitable wood; the young wood had an irregular grain and it bent, cracked, and shrank when dried. It is true that eucalyptus trees from Australia could make good timber, but those trees were decades or sometimes centuries old. It was soon found that eucalyptus trees would need to be at least 75 or 100 years old for good lumber. The young wood didn’t even make useable fence posts or railroad track ties, both of which decayed rapidly. Havens closed shop.

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Imagine planting EIGHT MILLION trees before you ask "is this lumber any good?" The lasting legacy of Mr. Frank C. Havens was that 1991 Tunnel Fire.

[Uncle Miltie]

Trump should give California the relief package Biden gave to North Carolina, and give Biden’s California package to North Carolina.

Seems only fair.

[A Navy Vet]

Why was my Article about Charity Navigator deleted? Am I unaware of something?

[AZJeep]

Whow!
I never knew the history of the trees! Thanks for posting!
By the time 1991 they were pretty big, but probably protected by the enviros.

[KSCITYBOY]

btt

[SauronOfMordor]

Here’s the link to the Design for Disaster YouTube

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UxnC1WW95XE

[bray]

Most of the people have most of their net worth in their homes so how do you rebuild?

[ProtectOurFreedom]

Smart meters DO have lithium batteries...

Smart metering demands advanced lithium batteries

I found a site called "Smart Meter Harm" that seems to do a good job of reviewing hazards of smart meters. This was particularly interesting:

Traditional analog electric meters are typically protected by spark-gap technology (like a spark plug) that has a direct connection to the ground. When there are overcurrent conditions (such as a high voltage line coming into contact with a lower voltage line, or lightening strikes) or electrical surges, the current “jumps the gap” and is conducted directly to the ground. This provides protection to a building, its wiring, and all devices connected to it, as well as the meter.

Smart and other digital electric meters do not have spark gap technology, do not have a direct connection to ground and do not have a circuit breaker. National Electrical Code 240.4 requires electronic devices to have a circuit breaker, but utility meters are exempt, and this exemption was granted when meters were analog meters, not electronic meters.

Instead, digital meters contain varistors which explode when the electrical current exceeds the varistor’s maximum. In addition, surges under their maximum limit repeatedly weaken a varistor until it fails and explodes. When varistors explode, they make a popping sound.

When varistors fail, current flows unimpeded across the circuit board of the meter and into the building along the electrical wiring, and can result in burned wiring, burned outlets, damaged appliances, electronics and other devices, and fires.. The damage is rapid and happens in a matter of seconds.

As far as scenarios where a major neighborhood fire would trigger your meter to cause the ignition of a house from the inside? I don't know, but it doesn't seem very plausible to me.

One important thing to note: when you have a major conflagration (such as a neighborhood going up), the temperature of the interior of houses rises rapidly, and house combustion often starts from the inside out.

[hanamizu]

And in this video Sal as another ‘inconvenient truth’. Houses very close to a pretty big water supply (the Pacific Ocean) burn down.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1N2BwcAT-s

[sphinx]

This fundamental misunderstanding has likewise led to a misunderstanding of prevention. No longer is it a matter of preventing wildfires but instead preventing points of ignition within communities by employing "home-hardening" strategies — proper landscaping, fire-resistant siding — and enjoining neighbors in collective efforts such as brush clearing.

The Great Chicago Fire was in 1871. Prior to that, rowhouses in Washington, DC were commonly built of wood. Washington had had several unfortunate experiences of extensive fires spreading through wooden rowhouses, and the Chicago example tipped the balance. DC responded with new building codes prohibiting wood framing and siding in buildings with common walls. This is when Victorian era DC began to become the red brick city we still largely have today, except where the modernist vandals tore down the Victorians to replace them with concrete boxes.

I live on Capitol Hill, which was mostly built out after the Civil War when the trolley line came out. Prior to the trolley, most of Capitol Hill was considered too far to walk to the old downtown. In the 1860 census, Fourth Street was the last built out street east of the Capitol. From Fourth all the way out to the Anacostia River, there were only six houses along the route of East Capitol Street. The Hill had been laid out and platted in the original L'Enfant Plan, but it had remained undeveloped until then. As a result, it is overwhelmingly brick today. We have occasional house fires in rowhouse neighborhoods. They don't spread very much. Porches are vulnerable, and bad roofing can be a problem. But those are limited problems.

I am still astonished at the complete devastation we are seeing in so many of these LA neighborhoods. It looks to me like they simply didn't practice defensive architecture. At all. And they live in a chronic fire hazard area. Of course, people still put multi-million dollar houses on barrier islands.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

Few Californians know about the required permitting for hazardous waste removal after a fire. I would add to Scott Adams' list:
5A. There are not enough demolition companies to remove all the rubble.
5B. The State will require inspection of EVERY house being demolished to verify there are no hazardous wastes going to the landfill. There are not enough inspectors to do this job, greatly delaying rebuilding.

This was a major problem in Napa County after the fires there. See Frequently Asked Questions ("FAQs") Related to Fire Debris Removal.

What does Phase I entail?
Phase I is the mandatory inspection and removal process of hazardous wastes from all burned properties before the removal of structural debris and ash. The local public health declaration allows for a government agency to enter properties to assess and remove hazardous waste, and conduct assessments to ensure hazards are mitigated. County, state and federal agencies organize teams of experts to inspect your property and remove any household hazardous waste that may pose a threat to human health, animals, and the environment such as batteries, herbicides, pesticides, propane tanks, asbestos siding, and paints. You do not need to do anything to have household hazardous waste (HHW) removed from your property.

What does Phase II entail?
Phase II is the removal of structural debris and ash from a property once Phase I is complete. There are generally two options for Phase II debris and ash removal; a government option and a private option.

The government option is generally completed by CalOES and CalRecycle working for and under the direction of FEMA. This option requires submittal of the Right of Entry (ROE) document. The government option is done at no cost to the property owner. However, if owners have fire debris removal insurance they are required to assign that portion of the insurance proceeds to the County to cover the cost of debris removal.

The private option allows owners or their qualified contractors to remove debris and ash. To choose this option, after Phase I is complete property owners will submit a Debris and Ash Removal (DAR) Application and Plan and must comply with all the requirements contained therein. Private work completed under an approved plan shall be at property owners’ expense. There will be no subsidy through local, State or Federal government. Additional Requirement for homes/structures built before 1990: Owners must first have the property assessed by a Certified Asbestos Abatement Consultant. Any asbestos identified by the consultant must be removed by a licensed Asbestos Abatement Contractor. An asbestos survey/removal report must be provided prior to the acceptance of a DAR application and Plan.

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This crap makes your head spin and causes deep despair.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

Smart Meters read your energy usage and send the data to the utility company. They can fire all their utility meter readers because the data is sent via radio.

Smart Meters also enable demand management where the utility can implement “Time of Use” rates. That’s where you pay more for power during peak demand times and less during low demand times. That way the utility does not have to build as many power plants. Typically TOU rates are voluntary and you have to sign up. If you can curtail power usage in high demand times of the day, you can save a bit on your utility bill.