Posted on 12/04/2024 2:36:19 PM PST by nickcarraway
Differing China tech policy agendas will send bromance into 'it's complicated' status
Canalys Forums APAC The CEO and founder of channel-centric analyst house Canalys has predicted that the alliance between president-elect Donald Trump and aspiring oligarch Elon Musk will unravel in 2025, putting Tesla's ability to execute on full self-driving vehicles at risk.
Speaking at the Canalys APAC Forum, Brazier said the recent US election saw "two people elected" – the second being Musk, not vice president-elect JD Vance.
Brazier thinks Trump and Musk will fall out over China, because the former's proposed trade war against is at odds with the latter's reliance on China as a market for Tesla, as well as a source of batteries and other supplies.
Trump's promise to implement 60 percent tariffs on all Chinese goods therefore hurt Musk and Tesla.
Brazier also pointed out that Tesla's biggest factory is in Shanghai, and that Beijing gave the EV-maker the very unusual concession of not requiring it to operate a joint venture with a Chinese company. Tesla has also received subsidies from the Chinese state, and remains keen to expand its energy storage business there.
"Tesla needs batteries from China, or it cannot operate," commented Brazier.
"But most critically for Tesla in China, they need to offer full self-driving, or they'll fall behind the innovation of the Chinese industry." But to deliver that feature, Tesla will need to navigate China's laws around cross-border data-sharing and assure US authorities any agreement doesn't represent risk for stateside buyers.
All of this is at odds with Trump's modus operandi of "picking fights everywhere possible as tariffs come in on China," Brazier explained.
China has begun to take the incoming administration's threats seriously, as evidenced by the Tuesday announcement yesterday regarding the export of some raw materials.
Taiwan poses another threat to the Trump/Musk bromance, Brazier observed. China has not gone to war with any nation for decades, but has expressed its intention to reunify with Taiwan. Trump has claimed that he doesn't want to pay for Taiwan's defense – but Tesla, alongside the whole of the tech industry, is dependent on Taiwan and semiconductors made there.
"Ninety percent of semiconductors are made there, mainly by TSMC, so Tesla can't function without Taiwan," Brazier commented.
Bourguet suggested Lenovo's supply chain is sufficiently robust that if nations impose tariffs, it can shift production to a jurisdiction where geopolitical issues are less impactful.
He also shared his view that tariffs help nobody.
"Tariffs are not good for biz because the increase prices," he told the event. "I do not think they will make the economy better. Nobody will win."
But China doesn't need to invade Taiwan – or even blockade it – to hurt the global economy. Instead, it could sow chaos by cutting submarine cables – an action it's already suspected of taking in the Baltic Sea.
Taiwan could reconnect to the world using satellite broadband services like the Musk-run Starlink. But Starlink doesn't operate in Taiwan, because Musk doesn't want to upset Beijing by showing favor to the island nation, alleged Brazier.
Musk and Trump both claim to be all for small government, yet Tesla has received US government subsidies and Uncle Sam is a huge SpaceX customer.
Finding mutually agreeable positions on these issues won't be possible. Furthermore, Brazier thinks Musk's reported dislike of collegiate collaboration and sharing power will mean the relationship becomes untenable.
"Musk and Trump will no longer be friends by the end of 2025," Brazier predicted. "Give them a year to get some regulations sorted for his [Musk's] companies, and they will fall out." ®
Wishful thinking.
Yeah. People seem to have forgotten the spanking JD gave Walz during their debate. Legacy media had a rough time trying to push the narrative that Harris was running away with the election after the VP debate.
“Conscious Uncoupling”: The End of the Ugly Divorce - Women’s Health
https://www.womenshealthmag.com/relationships/a19954331/amicable-divorce/
Splitting up doesn’t have to leave you broke and bitter—experts describe how an increasing number of couples are untying the knot tenderly.
by Faye BrennanPublished: Oct 24, 2014 9:00 AM EDT
There’s a new kind of happily-ever-after resonating in America—and ironically, it involves divorce. More spouses are opting for “conscious uncoupling,” the therapy method made known by Gwyneth Paltrow and Chris Martin, in order to divide respectfully.
That said, as the experts explain here, surviving the D word (or the breakup of a long-term, serious relationship)—and remaining friendly with your ex—isn’t easy. But the end result can be surprisingly rewarding.
...
If Trump had a habit of breaking old friendships, we’d have heard all about it by now. Instead what we’ve heard ia a continuous stream of people who have known him for a long time and not so long, who speak highly of him. He knows what a “Cabinet of Rivals” is all about and he and his family like Elon, and vice versa. This writer can now STFU.
I also predict Musk and Trump have a fall out eventually.
Mark my words.
They will fall out with Republicans before they fall out with each other.
Did she read this in a fortune cookie?
I recall we told you to get your TDS treated, I see you are off your meds again,
Creative and strong-willed leaders often cross each other. Sometimes an alliance is valuable for just a season.
There are many moving parts to the China situation in this “partnership”. They are both very aware of all the angles and have likely discussed them at length. A potential falling out is one scenario that could happen, but there are several others that they have likely planned out together, looking for win wins. I’m sure Elon doesn’t want to be under the CCP thumb forever, and sees the CCP preparing for war with the US. He’s a pragmatist.
I’m not sure who Brazier is, it’d be nice to have a first name.
He makes ok observations on issues or circumstances, but looks only from a one-dimensional perspective premised too much on Chicom narrative also.
US has all the cards.
Musk will not need to be subject to Chicom extortion and do their bidding.
Musk’s eyes are still newly opened.
I don’t think he’s acting in a Machiavellian fashion.
Brazier has a first name. It’s Steve.
He’s a Brit.
And Deep State.
See my reply #16.
There’s a good reason they left it out.
More foreign interference.
Maybe they will and maybe they won’t. If there’s a falling out, it wouldn’t surprise me. But strong personalities accustomed to calling all the shots in basically every situation.
Or maybe they’ll be lifelong friends.
Neither would surprise me.
In their dreams.
“Conscious Uncoupling”
What ludicrous, new-age shite.
CC
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.