Posted on 11/01/2024 6:02:10 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
Former President Donald Trump routinely declares he’s leading in the swing states “by a lot.”
His top pollster is backing that up via data with just days to go before the election.
Tony Fabrizio contends, “Trump’s position nationally and in every single Battleground State is SIGNIFICANTLY better today than it was 4 years ago,” saying the GOP nominee “holds the lead in 5 of the 7 Battleground States that account for over 270 Electoral Votes.”
Fabrizio points to public polling, via the RealClearPolitics average, to show his client is better off today than he was four years ago — and on the way to 287 electoral votes if those numbers hold up in the final count.
Trump was down 7.4 points at this time in the 2020 campaign; now he’s up 0.5 points against Kamala Harris in national polls.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
my only worry is that either Trump supporters are no longer shy about talking to pollsters, or pollsters found a way to reach them.
It was super obvious in 2016 and 2020 that the polls were missing Trump voters, that is not the case this year.
This is going to be super close and IMO will all come down to PA. And I do not think we will know the winner on election night, but we will have an idea who is from how quickly GA and NC are called
BTTT
Time will tell
I doubt they would be saying much if they didn’t have internal polling showing that they are doing way better than the public pollimg.
Will find out soon enough
Trump will lose every “close” election scenario due to voter fraud. He needs enough states with a sizable margin to win.
I consider pollsters the enemy and would never talk to them.
I am not alone in that view.
Given Trump brings a lot of new and low propensity voters I doubt most of the public polling firms have figured out how to effectively identify and reach them.
We will find out soon enough
I think we’ll know by 1:00 AM Eastern Time. I think Trump will have 325 to 340 EVs
“This is going to be super close and IMO”
It’s always super close, ever notice that?
It could be Jesus running against a tuna sandwich and it would be super close in this joint.
And we never get suspicious. Just take the other side’s advice and try harder next time.
Like cleaning the rifle in boot camp.
To His ears and His favor.
the way I see it, the first indication of a good night for Trump is if GA and NC get called quickly for him. If those are not called quickly for him, you might as well go to bed because no way are they going to call PA or any of the blue walls for him that night. PA doesn’t even by law start counting votes until the polls close.
Bump
1980 was too close to call the day before correct?
I’m sure the polls are underestimating Trump again…..
But MI and WI have shifted to Harris the past Few days in RCP
And PA trump is up by a whisker
Trump will likely win the other swing states, same rather easily, including NV but only the 3 blue wall states matter
So beware of polls that poll only the swing states showing Trump up because his rather large leads in the sun belt states could mask a small Harris lead in the blue walls
I would also say to look at the Virginia results. Biden won VA by 10% in 2020. I understand that VA will have their results very timely.
If that gap is significantly closed this year it may will foretell positive results throughout the country. Trump doesn’t have to win VA but if his loss is only 2-3% then I suspect he will win beyond the margin of cheating.
The Jamaican’s crowd has already proclaimed her the winner. Time to call in somebody to find out what the hell is going on. This election has even occurred yet and the Marxist piggies have stolen it.
I agree.
WI polling average was skewed by CNN poll showing Harris up by 6. Take away CNN and Marist polls and Trump is doing fine. Hopefully we will get some more of the Insider Advantage, Trafalgar, Emerson and Rasmussen polls over the weekend.
I’m a little alarmed that Trump’s polling guy is bragging about being up in only 5 of the 7 battlegrounds and that is based on RCP averages. What about internal polling?
This election is so close. I don’t think polls are underreporting support for Trump this time. I think that got corrected (which is why the 2022 elections were so disappointing). But I also think polls are distorted because each polling company is deliberately bringing their results close to even to avoid looking bad. If they show Trump or Harris with a 4% or 5% lead in a state and it goes the other way, they look bad. So they deliberately make the polls close. I think we may end up with the key states not reporting for a while which will result in a battle that lasts long after election day.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.