Posted on 10/30/2024 4:03:12 PM PDT by lightman
Two polls of Pennsylvania voters released Wednesday show the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump effectively tied, with the largest sample survey showing a growing political gender divide even as voters rank Trump as less personally appealing.
The polls released Wednesday are a 500-person survey of likely voters from Susquehanna Polling & Research, with a 4.38 percentage point margin of error, and a 2,186-voter poll from Quinnipiac University with a 2.1-point margin.
The Susquehanna poll shows Harris — the current vice president and Democratic presidential candidate — up by a fraction of a percentage point over former president Trump.
Susquehanna’s questioning was a head-to-head and did not mention third-party candidates. Quinnipiac’s equivalent question shows Trump leading Harris by about two points.
In a question where third-party options were included, Quinnipiac shows Trump leading Harris by a single point, with 47% of those choosing Trump polled versus Harris’ 46%, the remainder being third-party or voters who declined to make a choice.
This is Trump’s best performance in recent Quinnipiac surveys, which last showed him trailing Harris by about three points in the same question.
Both polls also continue the trend of Democratic Sen. Bob Casey outperforming the top of the ticket, with Casey leading Republican challenger Dave McCormick by three points in both surveys.
Both polls are weighted to represent Pennsylvania’s split partisan affiliations and demographics, according to the polling firms, but show some notable divergence in demographic breakdowns.
In a head-to-head race, Susquehanna found Harris leading Trump by a 6.5-point spread among voters ages 18 to 29, and by 10 points among voters 30 to 44. The same Quinnipiac question gave Harris a much stronger advantage among the youngest voters — although the poll used different age brackets — with the vice president up 16 points among those ages 18 to 34.
Both polls show Trump’s advantage concentrated among Gen X voters, a trend that has been observed in many pieces of recent political data.
Quinnipiac has Trump with a 6-point lead among Pennsylvania voters ages 35 to 49, and a 12-point lead with those ages 50 to 64. Susquehanna shows Trump trailing Harris by a single point in the 45 to 54 age bracket but with a whopping 16-point advantage among those ages 55 to 64.
Harris’ advantage returns among voters 65 and older in both polls, although Susquehanna polling shows Trump being favored by the slice of voters age 75 and up.
Quinnipiac’s pollsters also noted the largest gender divergence in any of their recent polls. With third-party options included, 57% of Pennsylvania men picked Trump and only 37% picked Harris. Among women, those numbers were reversed, with 55% choosing Harris and 39% Trump.
Race also continues to be a factor, with Harris favored among 75% of Black Pennsylvanian voters in the Quinnipiac survey, a massive 57-point deficit with Trump’s 15% of the Black electorate. Trump holds an 11-point advantage among White voters in the most recent Quinnipiac poll.
Those numbers also show a divide by education that supersedes race, another phenomenon that mirrors national surveys. White Pennsylvania voters with a four-year college degree side with Harris by a 16-point margin, according to Quinnipiac; those without favor Trump by 29 points.
Quinnipiac‘s questions on candidates’ personal traits and handling of issues continue to show strong partisan breaks, with voters overwhelmingly saying their party’s candidate is the better person with the better stance on any given topic.
However, the latest Quinnipiac survey shows two places where partisan allegiance dips below 80%. More Pennsylvania voters — 54% — say that Trump is not honest, compared to 49% who disagree that Harris is honest. Notably, only 77% of Republicans believe Trump is honest.
While Trump leads Harris by 10- and 12-point spreads in confidence on handling the economy and immigration, respectively, Harris has a massive lead on abortion. Just 38% of voters say Trump would better handle that issue, and only 74% of Republicans say the former president would be preferable on abortion.
If you know the outcome already do us all a favor- and i’m being serious- don’t post until after election day.
All these, “i know the result!!! The fix is in!!! We’re going to lose!!” is getting absurd and sickening.
The poll in my neighborhood shows 100% Trump. So there!
I’d call it the “indoctrination gap”.
Bucks county Trump lawsuit victory: judge orders 3 more days of in-person voting
https://www.cbsnews.com/philadelphia/news/bucks-county-ballots-mail-lawsuit-pennsylvania-election/
Just for clarification...years in school does not equal education. It’s just years in school, thus the term “overschooled and undereducated”.
Liberals think 20 years of college means you’re educated, I know different.
This is why i am less concerned about fraud this year. Better said- this is why i am much more hopeful the GOP won’t sit on its butt and do nothing about potential fraud.
First they win a lawsuit in Bucks county, now this:
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4274618/posts
These harris voters.. do they know what she would do if elected? Do they know obama is in the wings and he wants to fundamentally change this nation.. his favorite sound is the call to prayer.. and he denies we are a Christian nation.. there is no room for half way in that climate.
They don’t know kamela either.. what she would do.. she lies, that’s for sure. To vote an anti Trump vote is really dumb..no matter what you think of Trump, he is the best...she is the worst. think it through!
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