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Posted on 10/30/2024 4:03:12 PM PDT by lightman
Two polls of Pennsylvania voters released Wednesday show the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump effectively tied, with the largest sample survey showing a growing political gender divide even as voters rank Trump as less personally appealing.
The polls released Wednesday are a 500-person survey of likely voters from Susquehanna Polling & Research, with a 4.38 percentage point margin of error, and a 2,186-voter poll from Quinnipiac University with a 2.1-point margin.
The Susquehanna poll shows Harris — the current vice president and Democratic presidential candidate — up by a fraction of a percentage point over former president Trump.
Susquehanna’s questioning was a head-to-head and did not mention third-party candidates. Quinnipiac’s equivalent question shows Trump leading Harris by about two points.
In a question where third-party options were included, Quinnipiac shows Trump leading Harris by a single point, with 47% of those choosing Trump polled versus Harris’ 46%, the remainder being third-party or voters who declined to make a choice.
This is Trump’s best performance in recent Quinnipiac surveys, which last showed him trailing Harris by about three points in the same question.
Both polls also continue the trend of Democratic Sen. Bob Casey outperforming the top of the ticket, with Casey leading Republican challenger Dave McCormick by three points in both surveys.
Both polls are weighted to represent Pennsylvania’s split partisan affiliations and demographics, according to the polling firms, but show some notable divergence in demographic breakdowns.
In a head-to-head race, Susquehanna found Harris leading Trump by a 6.5-point spread among voters ages 18 to 29, and by 10 points among voters 30 to 44. The same Quinnipiac question gave Harris a much stronger advantage among the youngest voters — although the poll used different age brackets — with the vice president up 16 points among those ages 18 to 34.
Both polls show Trump’s advantage concentrated among Gen X voters, a trend that has been observed in many pieces of recent political data.
Quinnipiac has Trump with a 6-point lead among Pennsylvania voters ages 35 to 49, and a 12-point lead with those ages 50 to 64. Susquehanna shows Trump trailing Harris by a single point in the 45 to 54 age bracket but with a whopping 16-point advantage among those ages 55 to 64.
Harris’ advantage returns among voters 65 and older in both polls, although Susquehanna polling shows Trump being favored by the slice of voters age 75 and up.
Quinnipiac’s pollsters also noted the largest gender divergence in any of their recent polls. With third-party options included, 57% of Pennsylvania men picked Trump and only 37% picked Harris. Among women, those numbers were reversed, with 55% choosing Harris and 39% Trump.
Race also continues to be a factor, with Harris favored among 75% of Black Pennsylvanian voters in the Quinnipiac survey, a massive 57-point deficit with Trump’s 15% of the Black electorate. Trump holds an 11-point advantage among White voters in the most recent Quinnipiac poll.
Those numbers also show a divide by education that supersedes race, another phenomenon that mirrors national surveys. White Pennsylvania voters with a four-year college degree side with Harris by a 16-point margin, according to Quinnipiac; those without favor Trump by 29 points.
Quinnipiac‘s questions on candidates’ personal traits and handling of issues continue to show strong partisan breaks, with voters overwhelmingly saying their party’s candidate is the better person with the better stance on any given topic.
However, the latest Quinnipiac survey shows two places where partisan allegiance dips below 80%. More Pennsylvania voters — 54% — say that Trump is not honest, compared to 49% who disagree that Harris is honest. Notably, only 77% of Republicans believe Trump is honest.
While Trump leads Harris by 10- and 12-point spreads in confidence on handling the economy and immigration, respectively, Harris has a massive lead on abortion. Just 38% of voters say Trump would better handle that issue, and only 74% of Republicans say the former president would be preferable on abortion.
Pennsylvania Ping!
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“education”
A bunch of Squidwards who know better because they listen to NPR.
It is a poll therefore it is a lie to push a narrative, not inform.
Sounds like Men and Women are going for Trump. Trannies and other sexual deviates are going for Walz and his Jamaican Coconut Queen, Almond JOY!
Pfffft
Kamalama Ding Dong is in a dead CHEAT with President Trump.
They’re not voting for Harris, they’re voting against Trump. I was just over on Reddit because there is an article on FreeRepublic how to undercut Kamala on here directing you to there.
The belief in all that fake stuff against Trump over there is thick and heavy.
They know nothing.
Yep. All us knuckle dragging uneducated Neanderthal men versus the highly sophisticated, college educated women.
If candidate ‘A’ is tied with candidate ‘B’but more voters are voting for ‘A’ because they despise ‘B’ it stands to reason that candidate ‘B’ will win. Why? Voters against ‘B’ are not nearly as motivated and may not turnout. At least that’s the way I see it. Trump gets a higher turnout by motivated garbage....I mean voters.
“This is Trump’s best performance in recent Quinnipiac surveys, which last showed him trailing Harris by about three points in the same question. “
Also sounds like things are trending towards DJT.
Susquehanna and Quinnipiac are garbage polls.. why anyone gives them any credence is beyond me.
Quinnipiac was off by more than double its margin of error in 2020 and well over its margin of error in 2016.
Susquehanna is just as bad.
Emerson, atlas intel, Tipp, HarrisX, survey monkey, Rasmussen.
Those are polls that have had a fairly good track record.
Quinnipiac has been closer to more reliable polls this year but I still consider them garbage.
Buried in the article is an admission Trump is leading in Pennsylvania for the first time.
Classic media.
Fox News poll also out today with Trump up by 1 in Pennsylvania.
I don’t recall the media being this desperate in their attacks on Trump in either 2016 and 2020. Don’t get me wrong. They were brutal to him in both elections, but this one feels different.
I think they sense things are not well for them and that explains the more than usual over the top rhetoric against him, but especially against his supporters!
The fix is in and Trump is going to “lose” aka, have it stolen once again.
I'm sick to my stomach already. This is going to be like 2020 all over again, but the Commiela administration will be a thousand times worse.
What a f’ing joke this country has become.
I don’t recall the media being this desperate in their attacks on Trump in either 2016 and 2020. Don’t get me wrong. They were brutal to him in both elections, but this one feels different.
This time, I pray it’s counter-productive.
I agree with your sense but rest assured- they viciously attacked us as far back as 2016 with all kinds of rhetoric. Maybe we weren’t nazi’s back in 2016 but we were all racists and xenophobes according to what they said.
Reddit is a sewer.
That is actually an insult to sewers, as sewers provide a purpose.
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