Posted on 10/22/2024 5:39:20 PM PDT by SharpRightTurn
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's last poll before election day takes Georgia out of the "swing state" category and puts it firmly in Trump's column. Ever since shenanigans in Fulton County in 2020 led to a 0.24-point Biden victory in the wee hours of Wednesday morning, the left and the media have insisted on calling Georgia a swing state, a claim that ranks right up there with claiming Texas is going to elect a Democrat senator this year.
State of Play
As of Tuesday, FiveThirtyEight.com gives Trump a 2.0-point lead, and RealClearPoliitcis shows a 2.5-point lead. Trump has led in every poll in October. The last time Harris showed a lead in either the 538 or RCP averages was in the first half of September.
Atlanta Journal-Constitution Poll Topline
The AJC poll gives Trump a solid 4-point lead. This is the best result for Trump since a Quinnipiac Poll showed Trump leading by seven points.
What's Inside Is Worse
Gender Gap
I don't think it is a news flash that Kamala is tanking with male voters. There is usually a gender gap between male and female voters in choosing Americans versus Democrats, but Kamala has managed to flip the narrative a bit. In this election, men are much more likely to support Trump than women are to support Harris. One of the reasons for picking Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate and then sending him out to hunt pheasant with "the guys" was to increase her appeal to male voters (see YIKES: Tim Walz Trying to Load His Gun at Pheasant Hunt Is Something to See – RedState).
BACKGROUND:
The bad news for Kamala is that the gender gap in Georgia is much greater than in national polls. While Harris leads among women by 18 points (55.4 to 37.2), Trump carries men by a whopping 31 points (59.3 to 28.3). Even if women have a higher voting rate than men, it is hard to see how this is overcome.
Age Preference
Trump leads among 18–29-year-olds (52.3 to 44.3), 45–64-year-olds (51.9 to 42.1), and the 65+ crowd (45.6 to 43.6). Kamala leads by 10 points with the 30-44 demographic (47.2 to 37.3).
Race and Ethnicity
Trump carries White voters by a 38-point margin (66.1 to 28.4). Kamala wins Black voters by 66 points (73.8 to 7.6) and "Other" voters by 13 points (52.7 to 39.2). Biden flipped Georgia in 2020 by winning 88% of the Black votes (and a few 18-wheelers of badly needed ballots).
Education
Trump wins voters with a high school diploma or less by 20 points (54.8 to 34.8) and those with some college by four points (49.5 to 45.0). Harris takes the college group by 10 points (49.1 to 38.8).
The Dog That Didn't Bother to Get Up
One thing really stood out in the cross tabs of this poll. The demographics that Trump carried, he did so convincingly. Kamala voters were a little more uncertain. For instance, while Kamala leads Black voters by 66 points, 17.6 are "undecided" only two weeks out. She leads 30–44-year-olds by 10, but 14.2 percent remain undecided. Among college graduates, 10.6 percent say they haven't made up their minds.
The other impact is the truism that "undecideds break to the challenger."
Big Issues
From Politico's overview of the AJC poll:
What we're watching: Heading into the presidential election, 60% of voters said they believed the country is on the wrong track, compared with 28% who said it's on the right path.
19% say inflation and the cost of living are their top issues. Rounding out the top five were the economy/jobs (17%), preserving democracy (17%), immigration (14%) and abortion (8%).
I would contend that, at best, one of these cuts in Kamala's favor: abortion. Of course, we don't really know what "abortion" means here. Does it mean you want to keep it or get rid of it? The Democrats like to pretend that "preserving democracy" is their issue. I don't think that is the case. Many, many conservatives believe that if Kamala wins in two weeks, our Constitutional Republic may not survive another four years.
Bottom Line
The AJC poll verifies what other polls have shown. Kamala peaked in Georgia shortly after the Democrat convention and has been hemorrhaging support ever since. The AJC poll has been reliably within two points of the outcome of Georgia races since 2016, with an average error of R +0.9.
The incredible gender gap and Trump leading in most age and education brackets combined with nearly a fifth of Black voters saying they are undecided all say that Georgia will go for Trump. In the words of St. Augustine, we must "Pray as though everything depended on God. Work as though everything depended on you." And we must be vigilant because, in the words of Josef Stalin, "The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything."
Notice pollsters aren’t polling past today or this week. Hmmmm
NC always votes to the Right of Georgia. If he’s winning Georgia, he’s winning NC.
So, they’re locking into polls they can steal to. They just *have* to save democracy from Trump and his supporters.
I believe so, yes.
Looks like NC is going to have a D for a Gov.
The left and they’re fake ballots:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nNzkIgGpsAw&pp=ygUXQ29tbWVyY2lhbCBmZWRleCBkb29tZWQ%3D
“a claim that ranks right up there with claiming Texas is going to elect a Democrat senator this year”
I get five emails a day from Cruz that I need to donate because he is down one percent in some outlier poll. Kinda of sad and pathetic.
The bottom is falling out of the Harris campaign. I think the MSM is doing everything they can to contain the disaster, but by late next week I believe we’ll start to see stories of what went wrong with the campaign as the media prepares for her loss.
“Looks like NC is going to have a D for a Gov.”
Let them live with the suck.
The Governor in NC is always a Democrat. It's rare that a Republican gets elected there.
Funny thing is that NC always vote for GOP in presidential races except that one time in 2008.
No real man would vote for her.
Presuming the visual and behavioral stereotypes are accurate, Trump voters are arguably 20:1 over Harris voters in the precinct is work, and the turnout continues to be record high.
We are a red precinct, but never like this.
From the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s poll, no less. I am sure that this outfit if not for Trump.
“The Dude” can barely form an understandable sentence in his “The Old Man” series. Lithgow isn’t far behind. Having said that it is an ok watching experience according to my easily entertained wife.
GULAG BARASHEVO (2015)
A 136 min feature-length film that takes place in a women’s GULAG camp in the Barashevo USSR region. Dissident men & women struggle to survive. They tell the truth about the “Utopia” of far-left genocidal Marxism Communism in USSR. A must for every Homeschooling family to teach kids about the Utopia of Marxism-Communism & the Censorship & Genocide it leads to. 65 million people were exterminated in Marxist USSR genocide from 1917-1991.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/S1r8vHcNjZac
Do WE what MARXISM HERE?
THE DEMOCRATS DO!
REMEMBER THAT WHEN YOU VOTE!
I still can't get over how the pollsters are willing to poll foregone conclusions like New York and California, but nobody is seriously polling New Jersey.
-PJ
“I get five emails a day from Cruz that I need to donate because he is down one percent in some outlier poll.”
The firms these campaigns hire to raise funds are cutthroat and can be highly irritating. I have been on the receiving end of quite a few of these myself over the years.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.