Posted on 10/22/2024 4:45:15 AM PDT by af_vet_1981
Updated, 10 PM, 10/21/24
Good evening, blog mates.
The headline: Republicans lead statewide in Nevada after three days of early voting and mail ballot counting. This has not happened in a presidential year in The Reid Machine Era, which encompasses the races since 2008. This could signal serious danger for the Dems and for Kamala Harris here.
It's pretty easy to explain: The Clark firewall has all but collapsed (it's 4,500 votes) and the rurals are way overperforming their share of the electorate with what has been tabulated, nearly by 4 points -- almost all taken from Clark's share. The large mail ballot lead enjoyed by Dems has been erased and more by the GOP lead in in-person early voting.
Certainly good for Trump, but what about brown
the red wave has been deployed
a rising tide lifts all boats
Rs have build such a huge margin that the cheating in Las Vegas won’t be enough.
I am not convinced that one should vote early in a state that publishes the tallies by party each day. When the left knows how many votes they are behind, it give them a reasonable estimate of how many mail-in votes to get printed up. That number will be about 110% of the left’s estimated deficit.
Now if your state simply publishes the total votes for each day but does not break it down by party then early voting is OK.
Still, it is better to vote in person on or as close to Nov 5 as you can manage.
When I voted at the Sahara Library in Las Vegas in 2012, the entire parking lot was filled with cars from California. Although the neighborhood where the library is located is overwhelmingly white, I was one of the only white people voting. Everyone else was either black or Hispanic.
It’s good news but NV might not matter
If Trump wins NC, GA and AZ which he likely will
Adding NV will be a 270-268 Harris win (thanks to NE-2) without any of the blue wall states (PA MI WI)
If Trump loses NV and still wins a blue wall state Trump wins
The trend in NV though seems to be common in all states which is good news for breaking the blue wall
I am not convinced that one should vote early in a state that publishes the tallies by party each day. >>> Agreed and the release of the counting info to Edison and the so called exit polls which are really feeds to the networks as the counts are completed need to be held until the entire SOS certification.
Whenever data is reported regularly Republicans seem to do well. Florida 2020, Ohio 2016, PA 2024 and this. Does anyone track Michigan and Wisconsin in the same way? When the Republicans truly focusbon a state they do well but the apparatus may not be big enough. The trends are with Republicans in these cases.
No, this is great for transparency. They did this in Florida in 2020 and Republicans dominated. Republicans do best where transparency is high.
If Trump wins Nevada its a guarantee he wins Arizona. Both states have a lot of the same blue collar Mexican voters who have been swinging hard to the Republicans.
By the way, if that trend continues, New Mexico is going to turn purple if not red in the next election or two.
Its great to be optimistic, but the RATS are very capable and will do all in their power to break laws with judicial support to insure victory. Votes will be continued to be located until they have enough.
Remember there was a 33,000+/- difference last time around. If Washoe and Clark fail, Trump and, hopefully, Brown win. As for state offices, there needs to be conservative wins to break the stranglehold the dems currently have. 🙏
I’m concerned about the hype over early voting leads - which are expected because the new Republican message is to vote early. When the massive Election Day Democrat ballot dumps come in, they will have a better-defined target number than in previous years. Early leads are a good sign, but not proof of a positive final result.
Two things....1.R’s have been asked to vote early so turnout workers can focus on R voters that have not voted. Makes sense I think.
2. If R’s vote early they may be empty on ammo come Nov 5th so this may not be fantastic news....just good news.
Go Trump Go....Go Brown Go!!!!!
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