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Nevada: Jon Ralston's The early voting blog, 2024
The early voting blog, 2024 ^ | 10 PM, 10/21/24 | Jon Ralston

Posted on 10/22/2024 4:45:15 AM PDT by af_vet_1981

Updated, 10 PM, 10/21/24

Good evening, blog mates.

The headline: Republicans lead statewide in Nevada after three days of early voting and mail ballot counting. This has not happened in a presidential year in The Reid Machine Era, which encompasses the races since 2008. This could signal serious danger for the Dems and for Kamala Harris here.

It's pretty easy to explain: The Clark firewall has all but collapsed (it's 4,500 votes) and the rurals are way overperforming their share of the electorate with what has been tabulated, nearly by 4 points -- almost all taken from Clark's share. The large mail ballot lead enjoyed by Dems has been erased and more by the GOP lead in in-person early voting.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Nevada
KEYWORDS: clarkcounty; earlyvoting; lasvegas; nevada
If this holds, wow.
1 posted on 10/22/2024 4:45:15 AM PDT by af_vet_1981
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To: af_vet_1981

Certainly good for Trump, but what about brown


2 posted on 10/22/2024 4:49:01 AM PDT by BigEdLB ( Let’s go Brandon)
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To: af_vet_1981

the red wave has been deployed


3 posted on 10/22/2024 4:51:10 AM PDT by imabadboy99
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To: BigEdLB

a rising tide lifts all boats


4 posted on 10/22/2024 4:51:38 AM PDT by imabadboy99
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To: BigEdLB
Jon Ralston is the authority on Nevada elections, supposed to be an Independent but I think he leans Dem in sympathies or just because Dems have been winning there since the Harry Reid era. Read this blog for Nevada early voting details day by day.

This may carry Brown to victory if margin is large.

"The Rs have a nearly 2-point turnout advantage, and nearly 250,000 votes have been cast. That's probably not too far from a fifth of the total vote.

It's too soon to call it a trend, but this was a huge day for Republicans in Nevada (they are ahead in Washoe now, too, erasing a deficit). A few more days like this, though, and the Democratic bedwetting will reach epic proportions.

Far from over, too early to call, lots of mail still to come, but if Dems don't build that Clark firewall...

More tomorrow. Sweet dreams (at least for Republicans)."
5 posted on 10/22/2024 4:56:44 AM PDT by af_vet_1981 ( The bus came by and I got on, That's when it all began)
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To: af_vet_1981

Rs have build such a huge margin that the cheating in Las Vegas won’t be enough.


6 posted on 10/22/2024 5:06:45 AM PDT by Col Frank Slade
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To: af_vet_1981

I am not convinced that one should vote early in a state that publishes the tallies by party each day. When the left knows how many votes they are behind, it give them a reasonable estimate of how many mail-in votes to get printed up. That number will be about 110% of the left’s estimated deficit.

Now if your state simply publishes the total votes for each day but does not break it down by party then early voting is OK.

Still, it is better to vote in person on or as close to Nov 5 as you can manage.


7 posted on 10/22/2024 5:13:55 AM PDT by ByteMercenary (Cho Bi Dung and KamalHo are not my leaders.)
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To: af_vet_1981

When I voted at the Sahara Library in Las Vegas in 2012, the entire parking lot was filled with cars from California. Although the neighborhood where the library is located is overwhelmingly white, I was one of the only white people voting. Everyone else was either black or Hispanic.


8 posted on 10/22/2024 5:19:50 AM PDT by thegagline (Sic semper tyrannis! Trump & Vance, 2024! (Formerly) Goldwater & Thomas Sowell)
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To: af_vet_1981

It’s good news but NV might not matter

If Trump wins NC, GA and AZ which he likely will
Adding NV will be a 270-268 Harris win (thanks to NE-2) without any of the blue wall states (PA MI WI)

If Trump loses NV and still wins a blue wall state Trump wins

The trend in NV though seems to be common in all states which is good news for breaking the blue wall


9 posted on 10/22/2024 5:24:07 AM PDT by janetjanet998 (Legacy media including youtube are the enemy of the people and must die)
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To: ByteMercenary

I am not convinced that one should vote early in a state that publishes the tallies by party each day. >>> Agreed and the release of the counting info to Edison and the so called exit polls which are really feeds to the networks as the counts are completed need to be held until the entire SOS certification.


10 posted on 10/22/2024 5:48:09 AM PDT by kvanbrunt2
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To: af_vet_1981

Whenever data is reported regularly Republicans seem to do well. Florida 2020, Ohio 2016, PA 2024 and this. Does anyone track Michigan and Wisconsin in the same way? When the Republicans truly focusbon a state they do well but the apparatus may not be big enough. The trends are with Republicans in these cases.


11 posted on 10/22/2024 5:51:49 AM PDT by wiseprince (Me)
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To: janetjanet998
The trend in NV though seems to be common in all states which is good news for breaking the blue wall

Yes, that is correct about the trend and the other states that determine the outcome. Nevada is peripheral but indicative.
12 posted on 10/22/2024 5:52:13 AM PDT by af_vet_1981 ( The bus came by and I got on, That's when it all began)
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To: ByteMercenary

No, this is great for transparency. They did this in Florida in 2020 and Republicans dominated. Republicans do best where transparency is high.


13 posted on 10/22/2024 5:53:06 AM PDT by wiseprince (Me)
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To: janetjanet998

If Trump wins Nevada its a guarantee he wins Arizona. Both states have a lot of the same blue collar Mexican voters who have been swinging hard to the Republicans.

By the way, if that trend continues, New Mexico is going to turn purple if not red in the next election or two.


14 posted on 10/22/2024 5:59:44 AM PDT by FLT-bird
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To: af_vet_1981

Its great to be optimistic, but the RATS are very capable and will do all in their power to break laws with judicial support to insure victory. Votes will be continued to be located until they have enough.


15 posted on 10/22/2024 6:12:24 AM PDT by kenmcg (ti hi o)
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To: af_vet_1981

Remember there was a 33,000+/- difference last time around. If Washoe and Clark fail, Trump and, hopefully, Brown win. As for state offices, there needs to be conservative wins to break the stranglehold the dems currently have. 🙏


16 posted on 10/22/2024 6:50:39 AM PDT by rktman (Destroy America from within ? Check! WTH? Enlisted USN 1967 to end up with this💩? 🚫💉! 🇮🇱👍!)
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To: af_vet_1981
If this holds, wow.

I’m concerned about the hype over early voting leads - which are expected because the new Republican message is to vote early. When the massive Election Day Democrat ballot dumps come in, they will have a better-defined target number than in previous years. Early leads are a good sign, but not proof of a positive final result.

17 posted on 10/22/2024 6:56:11 AM PDT by Mr. Jeeves ([CTRL]-[GALT]-[DELETE])
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To: af_vet_1981

Two things....1.R’s have been asked to vote early so turnout workers can focus on R voters that have not voted. Makes sense I think.
2. If R’s vote early they may be empty on ammo come Nov 5th so this may not be fantastic news....just good news.
Go Trump Go....Go Brown Go!!!!!


18 posted on 10/22/2024 7:18:05 AM PDT by Kahuna
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To: All
Updated, 10 PM, 10/22/24

Good evening, blog mates.

Headline: Rurals matter.

Especially when they are turning out 3.5 points above their registration and producing landslide ballot wins (58-20) over the Ds. Consider that Other 22 percent will mostly go to Trump, too, and maybe we should be talking about the GOP firewall in the rurals this cycle. It’s up to 16,500 out of only 44,000 ballots cast -- and that's without allocating the indies.
19 posted on 10/23/2024 5:35:38 AM PDT by af_vet_1981 ( The bus came by and I got on, That's when it all began)
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To: All
Updated, 10:15 PM, 10/23/24

Good evening again, blog mates.

SOS is reporting today's ballots, and I now feel like I am in the upside-down world. In past cycles, I would be telling you how the Dems were slowly building a firewall in Clark (tens of thousands more ballots than Republicans). They have successfully done this in every presidential election since 2008.

But the opposite is happening: Thanks to a rural tsunami, the GOP has moved out to a substantial ballot lead:
20 posted on 10/24/2024 3:16:24 AM PDT by af_vet_1981 ( The bus came by and I got on, That's when it all began)
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