Posted on 10/18/2024 9:48:10 PM PDT by lasereye
A former adviser to George W Bush and John McCain believes Vice President Kamala Harris will nab the presidential election “maybe easily.”
Writing in a Vanity Fair op-ed released on Friday, Mark McKinnon, a former chief media adviser to George W Bush and John McCain, said: “I’m going to make a bold prediction here because I just don’t give a s*** if I’m wrong, even if this lives on the internet forever.
“Kamala Harris is going to win.”
He attributed his theory to the level of enthusiasm among Harris’s supporters. Harris’s campaign got an eight-point lead in August when it came to voter enthusiasm after she announced Democratic Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate.
According to Gallup, the party with the highest net-enthusiasm score at the end of a presidential campaign is likely to see their candidate in office.
“Trump voters may be committed, but Harris voters are excited and enthusiastic,” he added.
He added that Republican presidential contender Donald Trump doesn’t seem up to the task.
“Some days he makes it seem like the 25 in Project 2025 is a secret plan to execute the 25th Amendment if he actually gets elected, paving the way for—Lord help us—President JD Vance.” Some scholars claim the vice president and cabinet members can attempt to remove the president from office invoking Section 4 of the amendment if a disability is declared in the president.
(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...
I found this explanation of the enthusiasm factor:
“The party with the higher net-enthusiasm score at the end of a presidential campaign usually sees their candidate win,” Gallup wrote in April. “This is likely because partisan enthusiasm at that point in the election cycle is closely tied to their candidates’ position in the pre-election polls—the better their party’s candidate is doing, the more enthusiastic they feel about voting.”
What that is saying is that enthusiasm simply reflects what the polls are showing. IOW, enthusiasm is not a cause but an effect. The cause is the polls. Also, it is the enthusiasm levels at the end of the campaign that correlate to who wins, not in August.
McKinnon seemingly doesn't know what he's talking about. How can these anti-Trump Republicans not know what they're talking about?
Oh, he knows what he’s talking about, but he is a Never-Trumper, so he tells the story he wants people to believe.
Why waste your time posting a garbage article?
That feller thinks mighty highly of himself.
This guy is a Morning Joe, Trump hater from way back. Always wears a stupid white cowboy hat.
He better pack up and leave the country on Nov 5th
It’s sad to see that one of their own ‘in the know’ has bought into their own joy bullshit hook, line and sinker. Supposedly the enthusiasm “joy” provides that polls that result in the “joy,” and at the middle of this circle jerk is a complete moron and a pansy. The future of America?
Exactly.
How about he gives next week’s Lotto numbers while he is at it.
No silly. In bizzaro Kamalaland he is humble and polite. And Tim is a man. I think.
So very many historical measurements no longer apply to pretty much anything. In this particular case, enthusiasm at the end of the campaign means it might not necessarily have existed several weeks prior when early voting started.
And his predictions for the Super Bowl and the World Series.
McKinnon began serving as the principal media advisor for Senator McCain's presidential bid for the Republican primaries in January, 2007, but decided to leave the campaign on May 21, 2008. Explaining his decision, McKinnon said that he preferred not to campaign against Illinois Senator Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic Party nominee for president because Obama's election "would send a great message to the country and the world."
is a co-founder of No Labels
McKinnon and Julian Castro served as co-chairs of Southerners for the Freedom to Marry, before Obergefell v. Hodges affirmed that the fundamental right to marry is guaranteed to same-sex couples
Dick Cheney is that you?
Well, when he says he doesn’t give a s*** if he’s right or wrong, I think we have to take his opinion with a grain of salt
No wonder GWB was such a bad president.
With people like this advising him.
It does explain why McCain was moronic.
Reality sux. I want some of what he’s on.
IIRC, McKinnon was a democrat who happened to like GWB so he switched parties, stayed with McCain. So, I guess for him the first love never fade completely.
Her followers are so dedicated they will vote as many times as needed!
A Bush/McCainite RINO? Who cares. They’re the enemy.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.