Posted on 10/17/2024 9:29:45 AM PDT by delta7
QUESTION: Are you ever wrong?
PSH
ANSWER: Personally, we are all wrong on various things in life. To be a trader, you only learn from your mistakes – not your victories. I try to separate what is my OPINION from the forecasts by the computer. We have clients around the world. We have probably been the largest adviser ever. But that is not because of my opinion – that is Socrates. I have often stated I try my best to defeat my own computer – I am the one who ends up wrong.
There is a new film coming out the sequel to the Forecaster. I was asked in this film, how does it “feel” to live through your own forecasts. My job is to relay what the computer is forecasting. This is not my opinion. I stood up at our 2011 World Economic Conference and warned that the War Cycle would turn up in 2014. *On December 3rd, 2013, I posted that the computer had targeted Ukraine where war would begin.*
A number of people do not like the forecast that China would replace the United States on the economic battlefield. Sorry, but my job is to present the UNBIASED projections of the computer – not my personal opinion or desire. I have grandkids. I hate to see the future we are leaving behind for our children.
This is the data from the Federal Reserve. The differential peak in GDP (US-China GDP) occurred in 2006 with a premium of $1.3 trillion. Even since then, China has been growing in leaps and bounds, and it may even surpass the US in the 2025/2026 period and reach total displacement by 2032.
The Ukraine war has triggered a completely new dynamic in the relationship between these great powers with respect to this rivalry. What is being overlooked here is that China, and not Russia, is capable of replacing the United States as the leading world economic and military power, as I warned several years ago, back in 2011 and 2018. Our model projected that China would eventually replace the United States as the leading economic power – NOT me personally.
These are NOT forecasts that I personally desire, nor do they originate in my mind. Even look at the data on Republicans vs. Democrats. This is the perspective of the combined total seats of each party. The Democrats are the modern-day Federalists. They see themselves imposing their views upon the entire nation. The Federalists collapsed by 1824. The American people reject this political philosophy, and this is the trend that will lead to separation as it ALWAYS does whenever any government attempts to impose a dictatorial one-size-fits-all policy.
So please understand. I am no more infallible than other humans. My job is to relay the computer forecasts. I try hard to separate my opinion from that of Socrates. I do not want to see war. I know I cannot alter the cycle. The best I can do by screaming loudly is to reduce the amplitude perhaps.
I am 75 years old. I get to leave this chaos and watch from above. I am trying to leave behind what I had bumped into in the middle of my life. What I do, I do not do for money. I have enough to finish my life. At the WEC this year, I will make an important announcement that I hope will help the generations that follow.
“Ukraine Maybe The Most Important Country To Watch
Posted Dec 3, 2013 By Martin Armstrong ….”
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/ukraine-maybe-the-most-important-country-to-watch/
For the Armstrong bashers, his computer predicted the Ukie war back in 2013.
I thought I was wrong once but then realized that was wrong.
I don’t have to know if I’m wrong or not.....when I am my wife makes me abundantly aware of it. 😏
I thought I was wrong once, but I was mistaken................
From that article...
“Ukraine may become the focal point with Russia smelling the blood of a weak Europe and United States. This is like the barbarians smelling the weakness of Rome and knew it was time to strike. Russia is all about restoring its national honor. The USA has weakened itself like Rome by fiscal mismanagement.”
Quite prophetic! What precipitated Russia’s invasion was Biden’s shameful and pathetic retreat from Afghanistan.
As Rumsfeld used to say “weakness is provocative”!
following....
“I’m not bad, I was just drawn that way….”—Jessica Rabbit.
I think the idea if being correct about stock trades is not possible. No one, or rarely anyone buys at the lowest price and sells at the highest price. My mistake I will admit is I give too much heed to the RSI and end up selling only for that stock to go up another 20%. Then again, I should have sold my oil stocks last week. Whoops.
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