Posted on 10/13/2024 8:43:09 PM PDT by pigeoninthepark
In a seismic shift, Republicans overtook Democrats in voter registration in Orange County’s highly competitive 47th district, boosting Scott Baugh. The flip is part of a larger trend of Republican gains across competitive California races.
Republicans in Orange County — and across the state — have been making inroads this election cycle with registering voters. That shift to the red has been seen across the state as well, according to recent research from the Public Policy Institute of California, a nonpartisan think tank. PPIC found that Democrats are losing younger voters, as well as Latino, Black and Asian American voters. Latino voters are switching to the GOP at higher rates, while Black voters have also moved to other minor parties, according to the PPIC data.
The shift to red, according to the study, is “largely driven by voters switching from other parties to Republican, and it marks a departure from the broader pattern of independent voters moving to Democratic registration.”
Newton’s Third Law of Motion applies to politics.
When one extreme faction over reaches expect and equal and opposite reaction.
That’s correct.
I believe I read that this is the first time in about four
decades that the Republicans outnumber the democrats in
national registered voter numbers.
If someone sees and error in that, please speak up.
My district - go Baugh. Sad thing is OC was solid red - all 5 districts when I first voted. Gerrymandering and an influx of legals has caused the OC districts to be blue or competitive.
Hey! It’s the infamous simpleton Katie Porter’s district. So sad that whole running for Senate thing didn’t play out for her. It’s be sweet to flip the seat
Very.
Its a no brainer.
The People want adults back running the store.
Registration is not a predictor of election outcomes. Completed and filed ballots determine outcomes.
I believe I read that this is the first time in about four
decades that the Republicans outnumber the democrats in
national registered voter numbers.
If someone sees and error in that, please speak up.
This report discusses that the Republicans are gaining, while not yet over 50%. This based on surveys, not actual registrations. (Some states do not record party registrations).
Pew Research Center Report
April 9, 2024
Changing Partisan Coalitions in a Politically Divided Nation
Party identification among registered voters, 1994-2023
How we did this
The contours of the 2024 political landscape are the result of long-standing patterns of partisanship, combined with the profound demographic changes that have reshaped the United States over the past three decades.
Many of the factors long associated with voters’ partisanship remain firmly in place. For decades, gender, race and ethnicity, and religious affiliation have been important dividing lines in politics. This continues to be the case today.
Pie chart showing that in 2023, 49% of registered voters identify as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party, while 48% identify as Republicans or lean Republican.
Yet there also have been profound changes – in some cases as a result of demographic change, in others because of dramatic shifts in the partisan allegiances of key groups.
The combined effects of change and continuity have left the country’s two major parties at virtual parity: About half of registered voters (49%) identify as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party, while 48% identify as Republicans or lean Republican.
In recent decades, neither party has had a sizable advantage, but the Democratic Party has lost the edge it maintained from 2017 to 2021.
Thanks for the additional information.
I think the Black vote is particularly hard to gauge right
now. Traditional 90/10% voting, has now turned out to be
50/50 - 40/60 men, and 20/80 - 10/90 for women. We’ll see
how it turns out.
Republican/democrat
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