Posted on 10/09/2024 9:30:50 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
Democrats should brace for a shock four weeks from now — the possibility not just of a victory for former President Donald Trump, but a win so big that Trump beats Vice President Kamala Harris in the popular vote.
Trump doesn’t need to do that, of course: He can return to the White House just by winning enough battleground states.
But if he does get more votes than Harris nationwide, it will prove he is more popular, and his message even more powerful, than when he overcame former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Trump’s path to this next upset runs through the House of Representatives.
His chances of success in the popular vote are intimately linked to the GOP’s prospects of extending its House majority.
Democrats only need a net gain of five seats to retake the House, yet there’s reason to think they won’t get that — even if Harris wins the presidential race.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
Who cares about the popular vote?
It will never be 1988 again.
I want 270 or more and I dont care about the popular vote.
It really has no meaning in our republic.
Demographics have shifted too much for 1988.
CA, VA, NM, NV...they’re not gonna happen...I don’t believe VA is a real battle ground.
I KNOW if we win GA, NC, AZ and PA we WIN!
And that’s very possible.
BUT, as Hispanics are voting for Trump in the majority...maybe somewhere down the road they will vote in a larger majority....that’s the only thing that I can see that can bring 1988 back.
But i’m wrong a lot and you may be completely right :)
I hope we are both right!
Oh, it’s nice to trounce the opposition.
Hispanics -- other than recent arrivals -- are amenable to reason.
Blacks are a much tougher nut to crack. A large portion of the black population are, psychologically, sort of "permanent immigrants" who refuse assimilation and maintain an oppositional defiant attitude towards white people.
“Democrats only need a net gain of five seats to retake the House, yet there’s reason to think they won’t get that”
Very wishful, even though Republicans probably start at +3 in North Carolina. They are guaranteed -1 in both Louisiana and Alabama. The are just about guaranteed at LEAST -1 (Williams) or -2 (D’Esposito and/or Lawler) in New York, the dreams of hopium addicts notwithstanding.
Of supposedly vulnerable Democrat House seats, there’s maybe 1 or 2 which currently *appear* to slightly favor Republicans (Maine’s 2nd district, and maybe one of the 2 Democrat-held districts in Orange County, California). There is some chance that others (Alaska at-large, e.g.) could flip from D to R. Michigan is another good, but far from certain, chance for pickups; the GOP could actually go a net -1 in Michigan if John James gets the heave-ho, which is a distinct possibility.
There are NUMEROUS other vulnerable Republicans who may be in very serious trouble. Two in Arizona (Schweikert, Ciscomani), two in Pennsylvania (Perry, Fitzpatrick), maybe 1 in Wisconsin (Van Orden). These are all swing states, which it would be helpful if Trump could win.
This is by no means a complete list of vulnerable Republicans — or Democrats — but the endangered Republicans seem to be MORE endangered than their counterparts on the left, if you look at the actual data.
There is no popular vote to win.
It is a media creation.
Folks in blue states hate flyover country, so their thinking is that if we can get rid of the electoral college and just go with the popular vote, they’ll win every time. If Trump can win both, it might shut them up a little bit.
Trump won the popular and electoral votes in 2016 and 2020. Cheating thinned out the votes two times.
I think Trump knows this. He has scheduled a trip to Coachella, California for a rally. He is there to support the close House races in that state.
. . . but if the Democrats do not win a big majority of the black vote, that will mark the end of the deep blue state phenomenon.Talk is that black men, like men generally, are less than overwhelmingly enthusiastic about a Kamala Harris presidency. If that means Harris only gets 80% of the black vote - even somewhat more if it also implies low turnout - that means “advantage, Trump.”
If a Republican wins the WH due in part to black votes, that will be a banner day not only for the Republican Party, and not only for the country, but for blacks themselves. It would mean that both parties would be on notice to court the black vote - instead of one party giving it lip service and the other party giving up on it.
Are you ready for a Republican Party which fields competitive black candidates inside and outside of majority-black areas? Of course you are.
What President Trump did by questioning Harris’s credentials as “black” on that “interview” in front of black journalists was brilliant. The subtext of those comments was, “She’s playing you with the race card”.
As evidenced by the overdone media reaction.
That’s a fair point, and one I never thought of. Thanks for that.
Yes but.IMHO the stronger play would have been to reflect the question back to the black journalists by saying that
“You personally identify as black. If you identify racially with VP Harris and support her on that basis, that is your business.But if you identify with the public in general or with the black public interest in particular, I recommend that you support someone who is an experienced executive who has a solid record which includes the lowest black unemployment in history of unemployment statistics.
As opposed to someone who may be superficially appealing to you and who has been a prosecutor, a senator, or a vice president but who has no high level executive experience."
Sure, that would've gotten everybody's attention.
I agree.
I NEVER see black women voting more than 7 percent for an R because the D is their babydaddy, uncle, husband...and more.
It’s a shame.
I’ll be honest.
There is something about a blowout that feel SO MUCH BETTER!! :)
Like what we were going to see in 2020 before they realized they were going to lose.
270 is nice. I think taking GA, NC, PA and AZ leave him at exactly 270.
But 320 plus?!?! OMG I’d be in Heaven for days!
It's deeper than that. Many blacks hold intractable resentment towards white people and white society because of historic iniquities. While that's certainly understandable, holding any kind of resentment is self-destructive. In the case of this particular resently, it holds black people back, preventing them from melding into society at large. Democrats tap into that resentment. They foster it, inflaming it whenever possible.
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