Posted on 10/06/2024 3:06:15 AM PDT by blueplum
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) cannot reveal weather forecasts from a particularly accurate hurricane prediction model to the public that pays for the American government agency – because of a deal with a private insurance risk firm.
The model at issue is called the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA). In 2023, it was deemed in a National Hurricane Center (NHC) report [PDF] to be one of the two "best performers," the other being a model called IVCN (Intensity Variable Consensus).
A 2020 contract between NOAA and RenaissanceRe Risk Sciences, disclosed in response to a Freedom of Information Act request by The Washington Post, requires NOAA to keep HCCA forecasts ....
(Excerpt) Read more at theregister.com ...
There was a budget shut down with no CFO for a month or two during the Obama years, and they cut back a lot of stuff and ended some services during the standoff.
One of the things they cut back was the National Weather Service and it was hurricane season...
RenaissanceRe Risk Sciences...
Someone needs to take a real good look at that company.
I’ll just throw this in for starters...
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/913144/000091314421000029/ex2112020q4.htm
A table with a list of SUBSIDIARIES OF RENAISSANCERE HOLDINGS LTD.
Well, well, well...
Weather Predict Inc, a Delaware Corporation.
From Xao’s basement?
And 4 more in the next 4 days, all Red States, FL at the heart. Kirk and Milton first. So NO VOTING FOR SURVIVORS.
The only one that seems to be a threat to US land is Milton. Kirk is heading east, towards Europe. Leslie is already too far north to pose a danger (and seems to be weakening as well).
And 4 more in the next 4 days, all Red States, FL at the heart. Kirk and Milton first. So NO VOTING FOR SURVIVORS.
_________________________________
I’m no meteorologist but all eyes are now on Milton with a NOAA expected track into Tampa mid-week. I see a front coming down from the north which seems to be steering it easterly and I’m thinking it may push the Florida crossover path more south of Tampa. It will likely traverse Florida somewhere, going out into the Atlantic -— and then??
The further south of Tampa, the better. At least for this FReeper.
All the model tracks get real close together 2-3 days out...one more “spaghetti track” model isn’t going to make a big difference...see:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_tracks_latest.png
The federal government hiding hurricane forecast model... Who gives a shxt? These models are part of the global warming, climate change crap that used only to funnel money for the crap they want.
I see weather forecasting and predictions that wrong every day. These idiots couldn’t get yesterday’s weather right.
We have war crimes level human suffering happening, made far worse by the Biden/Harris Regime, and somebody wants to complain because hurricane nerds only get to look at 35, and not 36, or whatever number, spaghetti strings on an all models forecast? Until next year.
If someone is dead they will not be able see if they voted or not???
I have a sister in Jupiter, Fl: on the east coast parallel lake Okeechobee. I’m hoping this storm will track north, taking it away from her, but some of the models are showing it drifting further south. We don’t need this at this point.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#14L
In Florida, homeowners policies are not issued and real estate closings are postponed if a storm might hit.
There is going to be some uncertainty until a storm arrives.
What insurers want is to collect big premiums and pay out nothing. Unfortunately, hurricanes are weather and the need to pay might arise.
What the reinsurers might want to know is the area of best premium/risk ratio.
What is probably a better business strategy is to focus on individual property premium/risk ratios.
Once a storm is on its way, the insurer betting window is closed.
The NHC forecasts for days had the area south of the mountains getting about a foot of rain.
They got considerably more and from what I’ve read it might have been at a time when people might not have been awake, on the watch, and able to flee to safety.
In my youth, as I recollect, there were nuclear attack sirens that could be sounded.
This is so that insurance companies would have time to cancel policies in the advent of a heavy damage predicted storm?
Top Secret forecast model?
Haha, you can’t hide a satellite image in real time.
Models are just that, prediction forecasts, storms have a life of their own, wobble, wobble, you can see a storm coming from space!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
