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Posted on 10/01/2024 1:54:35 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
Atlas Intel Poll, and NC
Atlas Intel released their latest swing state polling on September 28. For those who don’t know Atlas intel was the most accurate public polling firm in the 2020 election, so I certainly would put them as one of the polls that should be taken seriously. In this poll they effectively show Trump winning 5 of the 7 battleground states. This isn’t in and of itself too surprising, though there definitely are some things that will probably be shocking to some.
First I would like to point out that, not only do they have Trump up in 5 of the 7 swing states, Those states are, GA, AZ, WI, MI and PA. I personally don’t find that all surprising, but they have Trump up beyond the margin of error(margin of error) in PA and MI. PA up by 2.9 with an MOE of 2 and MI up by 3.4 with an MOE of 3. The poll has Harris winning NC and Nevada, by 2.4 and 2.8 respectively. (MOE of each of those states is 3)
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Many polls have Harris winning NC, something that even Obama could not achieve. Not sure what to make of that.
Need to update the polls. Why isn’t Harris on the ground in Western NC? Especially in hard hit Asheville?
I’m not buying Harris winning North Carolina.
It will go down now, because of the hurricane response.
I’m wondering how well, as the week progresses, North Carolinians will gauge the proficiency of the Biden/Harris regime at handling crises.
The people running the Facebook huge flood support groups keep asking that politics not be brought into it.
Politics are being brought into it hard.
How is Jackyla gonna win NC now?
The interesting thing about this poll, is that it actually appears to fairly heavily oversample independents and republicans and still shows Harris up in NC.
If Harris does flip NC it will have nothing to do with her, and all about just the Governors race affecting the national race.
I agree that the events of this week, with the hurricane flooding and its response could shift things.
Personally I have a hard time with NC flipping at a gut level, but I am not going to argue their numbers. These guys aren’t in the bag folks who just throw out crap to get attention, or skew the poll of polls.
Maybe jackals can’t swim.
Tar and feathers seems to be the common opinion.
You have to have a number of RFK Jr type Democrats who are finally fed up with Biden/Harris incompetence so they'll vote for Trump despite voting for team blue their whole lives.
‘Many polls have Harris winning NC, something that even Obama could not achieve. Not sure what to make of that.”
Not recent polls. Atlas and Bloomberg are the only ones that have Harris up in NC.
North Carolina has had a lot of people move there from New England states. A lot of them fleeing high tax states but bring liberal attitudes.
She’s a Jackyla? You sure she’s not a cackling High-yeena?
Actually I agree with the author of the article. If the Republicans had nominated a “boring” candidate for North Carolina governor, that candidate would still likely lose to the Democrat but at least won’t drag down Trump. Trump has to work harder because there is a real possibility that Trump could lose North Carolina.
I posted elsewhere.
North Carolina has grown its population 350ishK since 2020. But the black proportion has grown, but slower than other groups over that period. Per ChatGPT
He won it in 2008. Before that, I’m thinking the last time NC went democrat would have been 1976 or back in the 60s.
So mostly Hispanics and Transplants?
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It’s definitely migration, not birthrate, per chatGPT.
State of origin of the in-migration . . . chatGPT lists Florida first. NY and Calif also listed, with the attraction being real estate prices. Surprisingly, also, Virginia, for job opportunities.
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