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For all the spluttering outrage about AARP being liberal — which OF COURSE they are — this poll was not CONDUCTED by the AARP (AARP is not a polling organization) but by Fabrizio-Ward (R) and Impact Research (D).
This poll’s results, no matter how far people bury their heads in the sand and don’t want to hear it, are extremely plausible.
AARP is crap. Don’t believe anything that comes from the organization. Far leftist, TDS crap. Was once a member but dumped them like a hot.... Well, you know what I mean.
In 2020, AARP also paid for polls in battleground states.
For example the labor day 2020 poll had Biden 48% and Trump 46% in Florida. It ended up Trump 51.2% and Biden 47.9% in Florida for 2020. So the AARP poll was accurate for Biden but not for Trump in Florida.
For Pennsylvania, the AARP paid poll was Biden 49% Trump 46%.
The actual 2020 results were Biden 50% and Trump 48.8%. So the AARP underestimated Biden by 1% and Trump by 2.8%. For 2024, the AARP paid poll was Harris 49% and Trump 47% with 2% for other candidates. I’m going to assume that at least 1% of the ballots goes to other candidates. The remaining 3% (100 - 49 - 47 - 1) will be distributed with Trump getting 74% (2.8/[2.8 + 1]). So Trump gets 2.2% and Harris gets 0.8%. I hope AARP 2024 poll is more wrong than the AARP 2020 poll because it could end up Harris 49.8% Trump 49.2% and 1% anybody else.
AARP I throw away all their promotions into the trash. F’em.
“This poll’s results, no matter how far people bury their heads in the sand and don’t want to hear it, are extremely plausible.”
Trafalgar and Atlas Intel both have Trump up 3 in PA in recent polls. Both polling firms were among most accurate in 2020.
Indeed. AARP has never been for freedom. They’re really nothing more than phone scammers.
Atlas Intels PA state poll is rock solid
Their sample size is nearly 1800, their sampling breakdown is damn near perfect in terms of party affiliation.
Its possible they asked leading questions or something, you you really can’t knock that poll in any way on its sampling.
I expect Trump to continue to pull away in the polling... think the damn has burst... and I suspect highly the internals have already reflected it, and the public polling is going to start to more and more.
We shall see.
Trump.. Who has been President before you all know him and what he can do..
Harris.. Woman. Opened wide the border. Never went to the border till last minute. Socialist and your freedoms are not warranted..
For starters...
Where are voters out there.. Have they just come to from a deep sleep?
We have another 4 years of stupidity and kingship. This country cannot survive.
Thank you. I dont like to bury my head in the sand. I know you cant cherry pick polls that one likes.
Being a leftist org, AARP may or may not be telling the truth.
Any poll that has Trump and Harris close in PA can be disregarded. There is no chance Trump loses. I have him up by seven points.
And Emerson just released theirs and has them tie.
If Trump pulls of a sizeable win he may have enough coattails to stage McCormick over the finish line
McCormick has some heavy baggage in Pennsylvania.
His hedge fund made some very poor decisions with the PSERS and PAHEAF portfolios.
The STATE CONSTITUITION bans NEMI ballots but no doubt the state will send out millions of them like they did in 2020.
People, stop with the history.
You say XYZ had the most accurate poll in 20XX? Why would that matter? Their turnout model happened to be right that year.
There are sample size reqmts for THAT measurement, too. A poll is going to have to be the most accurate 100s of times in order to achieve statistical significance. And of course that is not going to happen. So we have no sample size for these pollsters and therefore no one knows which is accurate and which is not.
What we have is their turnout model. You can look closely at that. If they lean heavily on some particular source of data, you can then have a look at that source and decide if it is legit.
Here are the things that are doubtful. Party affiliation screens in samples. 16 states do not register by party, so they are having to do a real-time survey of party while they are measuring candidate preference. There is NO way those results do not corrupt each other.
The whole gender identifying issue is now out there. You don’t even know if the W/M ratio is aligned with the past.
People are getting degrees in meaningless subjects and corrupting the yes or no question compared to history.
The definition of Likely Voter varies by pollster. They have different criteria.
And so, stop with the declaring one pollster better than another via history. It’s not that world anymore.
I agree McCormick is a card carrying member of the WEF.. he’s an old school Wall Street Bush type of republican…
However he has run a decent campaign.
The GOP of PA want those type of RINO/Bush republicans, they don’t want the MAGA conservative candidates.
If McCormick underperforms Trump then the argument these types of candidates are winners will face more criticism maybe the leadership of GOP of PA will finally be forced to change
The stupidity of the American public knows no bounds,the fact,if they are correct,proves the country is finished.
Harris by their own voters opinions say she is dumme4 than a box of rocks,her VP candidate acts like Bozo the clown.
Our enemies,Iran,China,Russia are licking their chops,America is about to become easy pickings
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